0x4231…402c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4231ebc3254fd0f172baef420e8f6ee35517402c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+10.6pp

ROI

+29%

Win rate

82% @ 71.4¢

Brier

0.120

Resolved

195

Avg size

$17

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	78% (52/67)	+33%	67
Politics	76% (19/25)	-3%	25
Business	91% (10/11)	-8%	11
Sports	67% (2/3)	+9%	3
Tech	100% (1/1)	+17%	1

Other67 bets
Hit rate
78% (52/67)
ROI
+33%
Politics25 bets
Hit rate
76% (19/25)
ROI
-3%
Business11 bets
Hit rate
91% (10/11)
ROI
-8%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+9%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+17%

Track record

79% hit · 84/107

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $205?	Yes	$8	80.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$8	75.0¢	Won
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?	No	$7	72.0¢	Lost
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $480 in June?	No	$18	88.8¢	Won
Bitcoin all time high by June 30?	Yes	$12	77.0¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$6	64.0¢	Won
Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?	No	$5	81.0¢	Lost
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $70-$80 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 2 – Feb 6?	Yes	$5	17.0¢	Lost
Will Microsoft dip to $360 in February?	No	$9	88.0¢	Won
Will Brian Armstrong say AI/Artificial Intelligence times during his X space?	Yes	$4	88.0¢	Lost
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2025?	No	$9	85.0¢	Won
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $80-$90 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 2 – Feb 6?	Yes	$21	71.0¢	Won
Matt Gaetz confirmed as Attorney General?	No	$7	72.0¢	Won
Will AfD win less than 39% of all valid second votes?	No	$35	88.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June?	No	$14	72.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $330b on March 31?	No	$14	70.0¢	Lost
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31?	No	$70	87.7¢	Won
Will Volodymyr Zelensky attend presidential inauguration?	No	$17	87.0¢	Won
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?	Yes	$4	80.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025?	No	$243	85.4¢	Won
Will LA wildfires burn 30-40k acres by Sunday?	No	$16	80.0¢	Won
Ethereum all time high in 2024?	No	$24	78.3¢	Won
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $90-$100 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 2 – Feb 6?	Yes	$1	3.3¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025?	No	$14	68.0¢	Won
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?	Yes	$7	62.0¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July?	No	$20	80.0¢	Won
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	$4	61.5¢	Won
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $216 in June?	No	$7	81.8¢	Won
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 26?	Yes	$10	52.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in November?	Yes	$16	80.5¢	Won
France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance	France	$4	89.0¢	Won
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	$4	80.9¢	Won
Sabato De Sarno out as creative Director of Gucci before February?	No	$9	87.3¢	Won
Will Ethereum reach $4600 in August?	No	$9	89.0¢	Lost
Will Solana dip to $80 in March?	No	$26	87.9¢	Won
U.S. sovereign wealth fund operational in Trump's first 100 days?	No	$13	88.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May?	No	$9	88.0¢	Won
Will Netflix reach $105 in March?	No	$13	84.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?	No	$41	68.3¢	Won
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	24.2¢	Lost
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31?	No	$73	85.5¢	Won
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?	Yes	$7	70.9¢	Won
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?	No	$14	69.0¢	Won
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August?	No	$8	81.9¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	No	$8	82.0¢	Won
Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?	No	$9	88.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025?	No	$34	85.3¢	Won
Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet?	No	$9	86.0¢	Won
Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley	Dvalishvili	$7	71.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?	SpaceX	$13	85.2¢	Won

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $205?Won
Yes$8 @ 80.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$8 @ 75.0¢
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?Lost
No$7 @ 72.0¢
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $480 in June?Won
No$18 @ 88.8¢
Bitcoin all time high by June 30?Won
Yes$12 @ 77.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$6 @ 64.0¢
Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?Lost
No$5 @ 81.0¢
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $70-$80 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 2 – Feb 6?Lost
Yes$5 @ 17.0¢
Will Microsoft dip to $360 in February?Won
No$9 @ 88.0¢
Will Brian Armstrong say AI/Artificial Intelligence times during his X space?Lost
Yes$4 @ 88.0¢
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2025?Won
No$9 @ 85.0¢
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $80-$90 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 2 – Feb 6?Won
Yes$21 @ 71.0¢
Matt Gaetz confirmed as Attorney General?Won
No$7 @ 72.0¢
Will AfD win less than 39% of all valid second votes?Won
No$35 @ 88.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June?Won
No$14 @ 72.0¢
Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $330b on March 31?Lost
No$14 @ 70.0¢
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31?Won
No$70 @ 87.7¢
Will Volodymyr Zelensky attend presidential inauguration?Won
No$17 @ 87.0¢
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?Lost
Yes$4 @ 80.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025?Won
No$243 @ 85.4¢
Will LA wildfires burn 30-40k acres by Sunday?Won
No$16 @ 80.0¢
Ethereum all time high in 2024?Won
No$24 @ 78.3¢
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $90-$100 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 2 – Feb 6?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.3¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025?Won
No$14 @ 68.0¢
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?Lost
Yes$7 @ 62.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July?Won
No$20 @ 80.0¢
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Won
Yes$4 @ 61.5¢
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $216 in June?Won
No$7 @ 81.8¢
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 26?Lost
Yes$10 @ 52.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in November?Won
Yes$16 @ 80.5¢
France vs. Sweden: Team to AdvanceWon
France$4 @ 89.0¢
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?Won
No$4 @ 80.9¢
Sabato De Sarno out as creative Director of Gucci before February?Won
No$9 @ 87.3¢
Will Ethereum reach $4600 in August?Lost
No$9 @ 89.0¢
Will Solana dip to $80 in March?Won
No$26 @ 87.9¢
U.S. sovereign wealth fund operational in Trump's first 100 days?Won
No$13 @ 88.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May?Won
No$9 @ 88.0¢
Will Netflix reach $105 in March?Won
No$13 @ 84.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?Won
No$41 @ 68.3¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1 @ 24.2¢
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31?Won
No$73 @ 85.5¢
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?Won
Yes$7 @ 70.9¢
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?Won
No$14 @ 69.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August?Won
No$8 @ 81.9¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?Won
No$8 @ 82.0¢
Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?Won
No$9 @ 88.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025?Won
No$34 @ 85.3¢
Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet?Won
No$9 @ 86.0¢
Dvalishvili vs. O'MalleyWon
Dvalishvili$7 @ 71.0¢
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?Won
SpaceX$13 @ 85.2¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$140	93.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$62	88.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$19	96.8¢
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$9	90.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$8	79.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$7	73.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$5	49.0¢

Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$140 @ 93.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$62 @ 88.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$19 @ 96.8¢
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$9 @ 90.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$8 @ 79.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$7 @ 73.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$5 @ 49.0¢