0x41e8…b994

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x41e8266341517750bec28829015b5289fe00b994
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.7pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

51% @ 45.5¢

Brier

0.089

Resolved

551

Avg size

$351

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	48% (38/79)	+13%	79
Sports	19% (4/21)	-57%	21
Politics	85% (11/13)	+24%	13
Geopolitics	60% (3/5)	+17%	5

Other79 bets
Hit rate
48% (38/79)
ROI
+13%
Sports21 bets
Hit rate
19% (4/21)
ROI
-57%
Politics13 bets
Hit rate
85% (11/13)
ROI
+24%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
+17%

Track record

47% hit · 56/118

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs	Vitality	$2.0k	72.6¢	Won
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs	G2	$101	46.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B	PARIVISION	$132	48.3¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs	Natus Vincere	$300	27.0¢	Lost
Will Vitality win BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026?	Yes	$3.9k	79.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Monte	$56	31.0¢	Lost
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?	No	$16	8.4¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$200	66.0¢	Won
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	No	$202	64.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	FUT Esports	$183	50.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$200	49.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A	Vitality	$6.2k	87.0¢	Won
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	$25	63.5¢	Won
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FOKUS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage	PARIVISION	$32	81.0¢	Won
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	No	$300	22.7¢	Lost
Will Romania win on 2026-03-26?	Yes	$46	13.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs	Natus Vincere	$558	73.8¢	Won
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	FUT Esports	$200	43.4¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	$7.8k	83.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$3.1k	80.9¢	Won
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	$4	51.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage	TheMongolz	$9	27.7¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$13.3k	85.4¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$1.5k	13.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs	Vitality	$8.1k	78.7¢	Won
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31?	Yes	$111	57.6¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	No	$1.4k	66.2¢	Won
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026?	No	$147	35.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?	Yes	$420	84.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1?	Yes	$21	14.1¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner	Natus Vincere	$310	60.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner	Natus Vincere	$141	72.7¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	$16.6k	86.7¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$68	67.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$6.1k	85.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B	PARIVISION	$18	18.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs	FURIA	$136	26.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs	Spirit	$192	61.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs	Team Falcons	$458	52.3¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$1.1k	44.5¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$2.9k	70.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1	GamerLegion	$36	45.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$28.5k	79.9¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$47	68.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	$212	25.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$735	78.0¢	Won
Games Total: O/U 3.5	Over	$483	68.9¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?	No	$500	60.8¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	No	$4.6k	78.3¢	Lost
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor	Demoor	$18	11.9¢	Won

Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio PlayoffsWon
Vitality$2.0k @ 72.6¢
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals PlayoffsLost
G2$101 @ 46.0¢
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group BWon
PARIVISION$132 @ 48.3¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio PlayoffsLost
Natus Vincere$300 @ 27.0¢
Will Vitality win BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026?Won
Yes$3.9k @ 79.0¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3Lost
Monte$56 @ 31.0¢
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?Lost
No$16 @ 8.4¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$200 @ 66.0¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$202 @ 64.0¢
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3Won
FUT Esports$183 @ 50.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$200 @ 49.0¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group AWon
Vitality$6.2k @ 87.0¢
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 30?Won
Yes$25 @ 63.5¢
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FOKUS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group StageWon
PARIVISION$32 @ 81.0¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Lost
No$300 @ 22.7¢
Will Romania win on 2026-03-26?Lost
Yes$46 @ 13.0¢
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals PlayoffsWon
Natus Vincere$558 @ 73.8¢
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3Lost
FUT Esports$200 @ 43.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Won
No$7.8k @ 83.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$3.1k @ 80.9¢
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?Lost
Yes$4 @ 51.0¢
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group StageLost
TheMongolz$9 @ 27.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$13.3k @ 85.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 13.0¢
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals PlayoffsWon
Vitality$8.1k @ 78.7¢
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31?Lost
Yes$111 @ 57.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Won
No$1.4k @ 66.2¢
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026?Lost
No$147 @ 35.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?Won
Yes$420 @ 84.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1?Lost
Yes$21 @ 14.1¢
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 WinnerWon
Natus Vincere$310 @ 60.0¢
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 WinnerWon
Natus Vincere$141 @ 72.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?Won
No$16.6k @ 86.7¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$68 @ 67.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$6.1k @ 85.0¢
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group BLost
PARIVISION$18 @ 18.0¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio PlayoffsLost
FURIA$136 @ 26.0¢
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana PlayoffsWon
Spirit$192 @ 61.0¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio PlayoffsLost
Team Falcons$458 @ 52.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$1.1k @ 44.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
Yes$2.9k @ 70.0¢
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1Lost
GamerLegion$36 @ 45.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$28.5k @ 79.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$47 @ 68.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Lost
No$212 @ 25.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
Yes$735 @ 78.0¢
Games Total: O/U 3.5Lost
Over$483 @ 68.9¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?Won
No$500 @ 60.8¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Lost
No$4.6k @ 78.3¢
Andrew Tate vs. Chase DemoorWon
Demoor$18 @ 11.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$25.1k	80.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$5.3k	85.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$3.3k	77.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$2.0k	79.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.0k	83.3¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$25.1k @ 80.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$5.3k @ 85.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$3.3k @ 77.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Politics
No$2.0k @ 79.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.0k @ 83.3¢