0x41c7…0df5

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x41c71e6daf8fb1a4ae199ecb4f54cbdf3a5c0df5
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.4pp

ROI

+18%

Win rate

55% @ 45.9¢

Brier

0.192

Resolved

407

Avg size

$18

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	59% (30/51)	+32%	51
Politics	63% (17/27)	+11%	27
Geopolitics	25% (1/4)	-67%	4
Sports	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+25%	1

Other51 bets
Hit rate
59% (30/51)
ROI
+32%
Politics27 bets
Hit rate
63% (17/27)
ROI
+11%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-67%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+25%

Track record

58% hit · 49/85

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$148	30.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$18	57.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$57	41.5¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$20	79.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$20	61.8¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$53	69.5¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$143	17.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$33	28.9¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$9	86.0¢	Won
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$3	58.0¢	Lost
Will Iran strike UAE again in March?	Yes	$21	80.4¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$462	84.3¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$37	1.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$317	79.7¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	No	$300	83.7¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	Yes	$9	4.1¢	Lost
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	$18	26.1¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$142	46.4¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$201	20.8¢	Won
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$309	88.3¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$110	35.8¢	Lost
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$43	85.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	Yes	$259	65.1¢	Won
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	$3	7.7¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	$10	80.0¢	Won
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	$142	5.5¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	No	$117	88.1¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?	No	$11	15.7¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on April 29?	No	$17	85.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	No	$1	21.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	Yes	$3	69.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$40	56.0¢	Won
Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?	Yes	$43	85.4¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$6	5.5¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?	No	$87	61.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?	Yes	$46	26.4¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	No	$259	67.7¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	Yes	$257	56.0¢	Won
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?	Yes	$3	38.0¢	Won
Netanyahu out by March 31?	Yes	$4	1.0¢	Lost
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	$253	84.3¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?	No	$115	67.1¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?	Yes	$41	24.7¢	Won
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	Yes	$30	76.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	No	$30	57.1¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	Yes	$244	51.6¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	No	$49	43.0¢	Lost
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?	No	$15	87.6¢	Won
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?	Yes	$3	8.6¢	Lost
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	No	$32	81.0¢	Lost

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$148 @ 30.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$18 @ 57.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$57 @ 41.5¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$20 @ 79.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$20 @ 61.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$53 @ 69.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$143 @ 17.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$33 @ 28.9¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$9 @ 86.0¢
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$3 @ 58.0¢
Will Iran strike UAE again in March?Won
Yes$21 @ 80.4¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$462 @ 84.3¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$37 @ 1.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$317 @ 79.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Won
No$300 @ 83.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Lost
Yes$9 @ 4.1¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Lost
Yes$18 @ 26.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$142 @ 46.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
Yes$201 @ 20.8¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$309 @ 88.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$110 @ 35.8¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$43 @ 85.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Won
Yes$259 @ 65.1¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Lost
Yes$3 @ 7.7¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Won
No$10 @ 80.0¢
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?Lost
No$142 @ 5.5¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?Won
No$117 @ 88.1¢
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?Won
No$11 @ 15.7¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on April 29?Won
No$17 @ 85.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 21.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 69.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$40 @ 56.0¢
Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?Won
Yes$43 @ 85.4¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 5.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?Won
No$87 @ 61.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?Lost
Yes$46 @ 26.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Lost
No$259 @ 67.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Won
Yes$257 @ 56.0¢
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?Won
Yes$3 @ 38.0¢
Netanyahu out by March 31?Lost
Yes$4 @ 1.0¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Lost
No$253 @ 84.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?Lost
No$115 @ 67.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?Won
Yes$41 @ 24.7¢
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?Won
Yes$30 @ 76.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Lost
No$30 @ 57.1¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Won
Yes$244 @ 51.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?Lost
No$49 @ 43.0¢
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?Won
No$15 @ 87.6¢
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?Lost
Yes$3 @ 8.6¢
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Lost
No$32 @ 81.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$7.7k	98.1¢
Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$7.6k	99.0¢
Trump out as President by September 30?	Politics	No	$5.3k	99.1¢
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Crypto	No	$5.2k	93.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$5.1k	83.4¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$2.4k	92.6¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Science	No	$2.0k	96.2¢
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	Business	No	$1.6k	98.8¢
Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$1.4k	95.9¢
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$1.3k	96.0¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Politics	No	$903	96.1¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$894	84.9¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	No	$845	93.9¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$840	93.3¢
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$789	92.9¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$750	50.0¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$750	50.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$733	91.6¢
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$580	92.1¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Politics	No	$528	98.0¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	No	$519	94.4¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$435	87.0¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	No	$356	93.8¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?	Business	No	$318	99.2¢
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$113	94.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$104	68.9¢
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in September?	Crypto	No	$100	99.5¢
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	No	$96	96.1¢
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?	Tech	No	$96	96.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Business	No	$95	95.0¢

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?Geopolitics
No$7.7k @ 98.1¢
Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$7.6k @ 99.0¢
Trump out as President by September 30?Politics
No$5.3k @ 99.1¢
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?Crypto
No$5.2k @ 93.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$5.1k @ 83.4¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$2.4k @ 92.6¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Science
No$2.0k @ 96.2¢
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?Business
No$1.6k @ 98.8¢
Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$1.4k @ 95.9¢
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$1.3k @ 96.0¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?Politics
No$903 @ 96.1¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$894 @ 84.9¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
No$845 @ 93.9¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Geopolitics
No$840 @ 93.3¢
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$789 @ 92.9¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$750 @ 50.0¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
No$750 @ 50.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$733 @ 91.6¢
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$580 @ 92.1¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?Politics
No$528 @ 98.0¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
No$519 @ 94.4¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$435 @ 87.0¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
No$356 @ 93.8¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?Business
No$318 @ 99.2¢
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$113 @ 94.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$104 @ 68.9¢
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in September?Crypto
No$100 @ 99.5¢
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
No$96 @ 96.1¢
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?Tech
No$96 @ 96.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Business
No$95 @ 95.0¢