0x41b4…10da

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x41b4cd880a61de2f5728594decf7f2cbfc2a10da
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.3pp

ROI

+9%

Win rate

64% @ 57.8¢

Brier

0.209

Resolved

1035

Avg size

$260

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	61% (81/133)	+4%	133
Sports	52% (15/29)	+17%	29
Crypto	50% (11/22)	-29%	22
Politics	67% (8/12)	+40%	12
Tech	100% (3/3)	+53%	3
Culture	67% (2/3)	-50%	3
Business	100% (1/1)	+63%	1

Other133 bets
Hit rate
61% (81/133)
ROI
+4%
Sports29 bets
Hit rate
52% (15/29)
ROI
+17%
Crypto22 bets
Hit rate
50% (11/22)
ROI
-29%
Politics12 bets
Hit rate
67% (8/12)
ROI
+40%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+53%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-50%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+63%

Track record

60% hit · 121/203

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Falcons vs. Packers	Falcons	$1.9k	31.0¢	Won
Miami Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs	Miami Marlins	$5.0k	35.0¢	Lost
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics	Los Angeles Angels	$1.3k	41.0¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$4.5k	67.0¢	Won
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	$5.1k	67.6¢	Won
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5	Under	$1.6k	57.0¢	Lost
Will CD Concepción win on 2026-08-09?	Yes	$7.7k	75.7¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15?	No	$701	68.4¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$432	66.8¢	Won
Athletics vs. Houston Astros	Athletics	$1.0k	51.0¢	Lost
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives election?	Yes	$414	78.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 10?	Yes	$82	49.9¢	Won
Biella: Jay Clarke vs Felix Gill	Jay Clarke	$6.8k	45.4¢	Won
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 100k and 120k?	No	$120	79.0¢	Lost
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 100k and 120k?	Yes	$65	72.0¢	Won
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels	$5.5k	51.6¢	Lost
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 27?	Yes	$104	74.0¢	Won
Washington Nationals vs. Athletics	Athletics	$1.9k	42.0¢	Lost
FK Radnicki Nis vs. FK Cukaricki Belgrade: O/U 3.5	Under	$9.8k	78.6¢	Won
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays	Washington Nationals	$2.4k	47.0¢	Lost
Deportivo San Pedro vs. CSD Cobán Imperial: O/U 2.5	Over	$2.5k	48.9¢	Lost
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees	Tampa Bay Rays	$253	40.0¢	Lost
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?	Yes	$248	61.3¢	Won
Patriots vs. Seahawks	Patriots	$6.1k	39.0¢	Lost
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?	Yes	$890	73.2¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 59 million views on day 5?	No	$252	84.0¢	Lost
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves	St. Louis Cardinals	$1.5k	49.0¢	Won
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets	St. Louis Cardinals	$1.5k	47.0¢	Won
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$5.1k	61.0¢	Won
LoL: Maryville University vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League Playoffs	Maryville University	$7	70.0¢	Lost
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026?	Yes	$3	56.0¢	Lost
Will Club Always Ready win on 2026-09-16?	No	$10.1k	60.2¢	Lost
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,200,000 and 1,500,000 voters?	Yes	$106	64.6¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 21?	No	$8	80.0¢	Won
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	No	$20	55.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12?	Yes	$674	70.1¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	$250	79.0¢	Won
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Under	$1.5k	53.0¢	Won
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics	Athletics	$762	49.0¢	Lost
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins	$2.0k	56.0¢	Won
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves	San Francisco Giants	$997	44.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16?	Yes	$271	56.1¢	Won
M25 Sintra: Giorgio Tabacco vs Michael Agwi	Giorgio Tabacco	$2.6k	42.9¢	Won
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers	Arizona Diamondbacks	$1.2k	47.0¢	Lost
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals	St. Louis Cardinals	$995	49.0¢	Lost
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on June 3?	Yes	$4	51.0¢	Won
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics	Los Angeles Angels	$7.4k	47.0¢	Won
Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers	Detroit Tigers	$1.5k	50.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 12?	No	$109	72.2¢	Won
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $380 Week of May 18 2026?	No	$250	75.0¢	Won

Falcons vs. PackersWon
Falcons$1.9k @ 31.0¢
Miami Marlins vs. Chicago CubsLost
Miami Marlins$5.0k @ 35.0¢
Los Angeles Angels vs. AthleticsLost
Los Angeles Angels$1.3k @ 41.0¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$4.5k @ 67.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Won
Yes$5.1k @ 67.6¢
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5Lost
Under$1.6k @ 57.0¢
Will CD Concepción win on 2026-08-09?Won
Yes$7.7k @ 75.7¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15?Lost
No$701 @ 68.4¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Won
Yes$432 @ 66.8¢
Athletics vs. Houston AstrosLost
Athletics$1.0k @ 51.0¢
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives election?Won
Yes$414 @ 78.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 10?Won
Yes$82 @ 49.9¢
Biella: Jay Clarke vs Felix GillWon
Jay Clarke$6.8k @ 45.4¢
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 100k and 120k?Lost
No$120 @ 79.0¢
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 100k and 120k?Won
Yes$65 @ 72.0¢
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles AngelsLost
Los Angeles Angels$5.5k @ 51.6¢
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 27?Won
Yes$104 @ 74.0¢
Washington Nationals vs. AthleticsLost
Athletics$1.9k @ 42.0¢
FK Radnicki Nis vs. FK Cukaricki Belgrade: O/U 3.5Won
Under$9.8k @ 78.6¢
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay RaysLost
Washington Nationals$2.4k @ 47.0¢
Deportivo San Pedro vs. CSD Cobán Imperial: O/U 2.5Lost
Over$2.5k @ 48.9¢
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York YankeesLost
Tampa Bay Rays$253 @ 40.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?Won
Yes$248 @ 61.3¢
Patriots vs. SeahawksLost
Patriots$6.1k @ 39.0¢
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?Won
Yes$890 @ 73.2¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 59 million views on day 5?Lost
No$252 @ 84.0¢
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta BravesWon
St. Louis Cardinals$1.5k @ 49.0¢
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York MetsWon
St. Louis Cardinals$1.5k @ 47.0¢
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?Won
Yes$5.1k @ 61.0¢
LoL: Maryville University vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League PlayoffsLost
Maryville University$7 @ 70.0¢
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 56.0¢
Will Club Always Ready win on 2026-09-16?Lost
No$10.1k @ 60.2¢
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,200,000 and 1,500,000 voters?Won
Yes$106 @ 64.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 21?Won
No$8 @ 80.0¢
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionWon
No$20 @ 55.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12?Won
Yes$674 @ 70.1¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Won
Yes$250 @ 79.0¢
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5Won
Under$1.5k @ 53.0¢
Seattle Mariners vs. AthleticsLost
Athletics$762 @ 49.0¢
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota TwinsWon
Minnesota Twins$2.0k @ 56.0¢
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta BravesWon
San Francisco Giants$997 @ 44.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16?Won
Yes$271 @ 56.1¢
M25 Sintra: Giorgio Tabacco vs Michael AgwiWon
Giorgio Tabacco$2.6k @ 42.9¢
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas RangersLost
Arizona Diamondbacks$1.2k @ 47.0¢
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City RoyalsLost
St. Louis Cardinals$995 @ 49.0¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on June 3?Won
Yes$4 @ 51.0¢
Los Angeles Angels vs. AthleticsWon
Los Angeles Angels$7.4k @ 47.0¢
Detroit Tigers vs. Texas RangersLost
Detroit Tigers$1.5k @ 50.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 12?Won
No$109 @ 72.2¢
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $380 Week of May 18 2026?Won
No$250 @ 75.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 2?	Science	No	$22	11.0¢

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 2?Science
No$22 @ 11.0¢