0x416b…bad6

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x416b8dd22e63c7e73396ddff5aa46aef83e7bad6
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

-6.7pp

ROI

+3%

Win rate

16% @ 23.1¢

Brier

0.084

Resolved

377

Avg size

$10

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	32% (9/28)	-11%	28
Sports	15% (3/20)	+13%	20
Politics	0% (0/4)	-100%	4
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other28 bets
Hit rate
32% (9/28)
ROI
-11%
Sports20 bets
Hit rate
15% (3/20)
ROI
+13%
Politics4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

23% hit · 12/53

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17?	Yes	$4	13.0¢	Lost
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$44	4.4¢	Lost
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11?	Yes	$6	62.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 31?	No	$1	1.1¢	Lost
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?	No	$35	70.0¢	Lost
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$7	1.4¢	Lost
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$19	1.9¢	Lost
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$4	24.0¢	Lost
Will "SHEEP IN THE BOX by KORE-EDA Hirokazu" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?	Yes	$13	4.8¢	Lost
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$280	16.0¢	Lost
Will Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$40	4.4¢	Lost
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$119	6.7¢	Lost
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$8	4.4¢	Lost
LoL: DN SOOPers vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner	KT Rolster	$37	74.0¢	Won
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 112m?	Yes	$3	15.0¢	Lost
Will Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?	Yes	$5	17.0¢	Lost
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	46.0¢	Won
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	$24	24.0¢	Lost
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$354	70.7¢	Won
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$208	12.0¢	Won
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$5	2.2¢	Won
LoL: BNK FEARX vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner	KT Rolster	$49	65.3¢	Won
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	$28	1.4¢	Lost
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$396	22.6¢	Lost
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	$364	60.0¢	Won
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$439	25.2¢	Lost
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30?	Yes	$5	5.1¢	Lost
Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$82	81.5¢	Won
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2	18.0¢	Lost
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$40	15.9¢	Lost
Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend?	Avatar	$72	2.4¢	Lost
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2	20.0¢	Lost
Will "Sinners" win 3 or fewer awards at the Oscars?	No	$95	51.7¢	Won
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$145	5.3¢	Lost
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$9	45.0¢	Lost
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$389	61.8¢	Lost
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$30	5.0¢	Lost
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$46	9.3¢	Lost
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17?	Yes	$5	17.0¢	Won
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$170	85.0¢	Won
Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Yes	$2	37.0¢	Won
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$2	20.0¢	Lost
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$3	3.0¢	Lost
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$2	9.0¢	Lost
Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?	Yes	$3	15.0¢	Lost
Will Yeom Tae-yeong win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?	Yes	$0	9.0¢	Lost
Will Cho Kyoung-tae win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?	Yes	$1	1.2¢	Lost
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Lost
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$5	0.7¢	Lost

Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17?Lost
Yes$4 @ 13.0¢
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$44 @ 4.4¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11?Lost
Yes$6 @ 62.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 31?Lost
No$1 @ 1.1¢
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?Lost
No$35 @ 70.0¢
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League?Lost
Yes$7 @ 1.4¢
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$19 @ 1.9¢
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$4 @ 24.0¢
Will "SHEEP IN THE BOX by KORE-EDA Hirokazu" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?Lost
Yes$13 @ 4.8¢
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?Lost
Yes$280 @ 16.0¢
Will Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$40 @ 4.4¢
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?Lost
Yes$119 @ 6.7¢
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$8 @ 4.4¢
LoL: DN SOOPers vs KT Rolster - Game 2 WinnerWon
KT Rolster$37 @ 74.0¢
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 112m?Lost
Yes$3 @ 15.0¢
Will Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?Lost
Yes$5 @ 17.0¢
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$1 @ 46.0¢
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
No$24 @ 24.0¢
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
Yes$354 @ 70.7¢
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?Won
Yes$208 @ 12.0¢
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
Yes$5 @ 2.2¢
LoL: BNK FEARX vs KT Rolster - Game 2 WinnerWon
KT Rolster$49 @ 65.3¢
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?Lost
Yes$28 @ 1.4¢
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?Lost
Yes$396 @ 22.6¢
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?Won
No$364 @ 60.0¢
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?Lost
Yes$439 @ 25.2¢
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 5.1¢
Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
Yes$82 @ 81.5¢
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$2 @ 18.0¢
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$40 @ 15.9¢
Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend?Lost
Avatar$72 @ 2.4¢
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$2 @ 20.0¢
Will "Sinners" win 3 or fewer awards at the Oscars?Won
No$95 @ 51.7¢
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?Lost
Yes$145 @ 5.3¢
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$9 @ 45.0¢
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$389 @ 61.8¢
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$30 @ 5.0¢
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$46 @ 9.3¢
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17?Won
Yes$5 @ 17.0¢
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
Yes$170 @ 85.0¢
Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Won
Yes$2 @ 37.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$2 @ 20.0¢
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?Lost
Yes$3 @ 3.0¢
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League?Lost
Yes$2 @ 9.0¢
Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?Lost
Yes$3 @ 15.0¢
Will Yeom Tae-yeong win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?Lost
Yes$0 @ 9.0¢
Will Cho Kyoung-tae win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.2¢
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionLost
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.7¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Rodri join Barcelona?	Sports	No	$196	22.6¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	—	Yes	$171	15.8¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	—	No	$105	19.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 700m and 800m by August 31?	—	Yes	$6	0.4¢

Will Rodri join Barcelona?Sports
No$196 @ 22.6¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?—
Yes$171 @ 15.8¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?—
No$105 @ 19.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 700m and 800m by August 31?—
Yes$6 @ 0.4¢