0x4133…ea5d

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4133f8ff4b624c1d1b4ddfbf1da803c1e0d4ea5d
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.9pp

ROI

+20%

Win rate

55% @ 45.3¢

Brier

0.094

Resolved

682

Avg size

$346

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	63% (52/82)	+22%	82
Politics	54% (15/28)	+18%	28
Geopolitics	57% (4/7)	+15%	7
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+37%	1

Other82 bets
Hit rate
63% (52/82)
ROI
+22%
Politics28 bets
Hit rate
54% (15/28)
ROI
+18%
Geopolitics7 bets
Hit rate
57% (4/7)
ROI
+15%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+37%

Track record

60% hit · 72/120

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Argentina win on 2026-10-06?	No	$103	1.9¢	Lost
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	No	$138	79.6¢	Lost
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$175	10.1¢	Lost
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?	No	$115	28.7¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	$5.0k	86.9¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$1.1k	61.9¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	Yes	$100	7.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 6?	Yes	$96	3.2¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	No	$690	23.0¢	Lost
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026?	Yes	$264	67.9¢	Won
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	Yes	$291	55.7¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	No	$20	0.3¢	Lost
Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?	Yes	$810	81.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	Yes	$83	13.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$14.5k	80.7¢	Won
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 15?	Yes	$3.1k	78.4¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in July?	No	$3	11.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	No	$2.6k	86.0¢	Won
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?	No	$43	68.0¢	Won
Will LaGuardia Airport (LGA) be open to departures by 2:00 PM ET on March 23, 2026?	Yes	$138	80.6¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in April?	Yes	$6.8k	85.2¢	Won
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	$16	46.2¢	Lost
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 27, 2026?	Yes	$272	88.7¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	$4.2k	70.5¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	No	$25.3k	87.8¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$1.7k	36.8¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$12.4k	61.3¢	Won
James Comey arrested by April 29?	Yes	$1	77.0¢	Won
Will fewer than 2 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	No	$5.2k	80.7¢	Won
Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31?	Yes	$11	3.4¢	Lost
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 8, 2026?	Yes	$213	88.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	Yes	$3.2k	18.5¢	Won
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	$13	2.3¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	$2.7k	75.4¢	Won
Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$8	75.0¢	Won
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?	No	$4.5k	89.1¢	Won
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?	Yes	$943	14.2¢	Lost
New Trump executive order to restrict voting by March 31?	Yes	$2	1.9¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	No	$2.3k	65.9¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	Yes	$1.9k	28.1¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$18.2k	22.1¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$24.6k	80.2¢	Won
Will Iran strike UAE by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$449	89.8¢	Won
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?	No	$221	73.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31?	No	$4.5k	77.6¢	Won
Will Iran strike Iraq again in March?	Yes	$75	74.8¢	Won
Another US Joint Chiefs of Staff member out by April 30?	No	$47	72.1¢	Won
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30?	Yes	$41	27.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	Yes	$6.1k	57.7¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	$503	32.6¢	Lost

Will Argentina win on 2026-10-06?Lost
No$103 @ 1.9¢
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?Lost
No$138 @ 79.6¢
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$175 @ 10.1¢
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?Lost
No$115 @ 28.7¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Won
No$5.0k @ 86.9¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$1.1k @ 61.9¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?Lost
Yes$100 @ 7.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 6?Lost
Yes$96 @ 3.2¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Lost
No$690 @ 23.0¢
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026?Won
Yes$264 @ 67.9¢
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?Won
Yes$291 @ 55.7¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Lost
No$20 @ 0.3¢
Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$810 @ 81.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?Lost
Yes$83 @ 13.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$14.5k @ 80.7¢
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 15?Won
Yes$3.1k @ 78.4¢
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in July?Lost
No$3 @ 11.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Won
No$2.6k @ 86.0¢
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?Won
No$43 @ 68.0¢
Will LaGuardia Airport (LGA) be open to departures by 2:00 PM ET on March 23, 2026?Won
Yes$138 @ 80.6¢
Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in April?Won
Yes$6.8k @ 85.2¢
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$16 @ 46.2¢
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 27, 2026?Won
Yes$272 @ 88.7¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Won
No$4.2k @ 70.5¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Won
No$25.3k @ 87.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$1.7k @ 36.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
Yes$12.4k @ 61.3¢
James Comey arrested by April 29?Won
Yes$1 @ 77.0¢
Will fewer than 2 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?Won
No$5.2k @ 80.7¢
Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31?Lost
Yes$11 @ 3.4¢
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 8, 2026?Won
Yes$213 @ 88.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Won
Yes$3.2k @ 18.5¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Lost
Yes$13 @ 2.3¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Won
No$2.7k @ 75.4¢
Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia by April 30, 2026?Won
Yes$8 @ 75.0¢
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?Won
No$4.5k @ 89.1¢
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$943 @ 14.2¢
New Trump executive order to restrict voting by March 31?Won
Yes$2 @ 1.9¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?Won
No$2.3k @ 65.9¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?Lost
Yes$1.9k @ 28.1¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$18.2k @ 22.1¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$24.6k @ 80.2¢
Will Iran strike UAE by April 30, 2026?Won
Yes$449 @ 89.8¢
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?Won
No$221 @ 73.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31?Won
No$4.5k @ 77.6¢
Will Iran strike Iraq again in March?Won
Yes$75 @ 74.8¢
Another US Joint Chiefs of Staff member out by April 30?Won
No$47 @ 72.1¢
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30?Won
Yes$41 @ 27.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Won
Yes$6.1k @ 57.7¢
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?Lost
No$503 @ 32.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027?	Politics	No	$7.5k	86.3¢
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	Politics	No	$7.0k	85.3¢
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	No	$2.5k	88.4¢
Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.3k	84.2¢
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 30%-40%?	Politics	No	$1.1k	94.0¢
Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?	Politics	No	$1.1k	94.2¢
Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?	Politics	No	$740	95.0¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$347	24.2¢
Pakistan military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$200	80.2¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-10-06?	Sports	No	$103	1.9¢
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$85	12.0¢
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 40%?	Politics	No	$68	92.1¢

Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027?Politics
No$7.5k @ 86.3¢
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Politics
No$7.0k @ 85.3¢
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
No$2.5k @ 88.4¢
Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.3k @ 84.2¢
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 30%-40%?Politics
No$1.1k @ 94.0¢
Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?Politics
No$1.1k @ 94.2¢
Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?Politics
No$740 @ 95.0¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?Politics
Yes$347 @ 24.2¢
Pakistan military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$200 @ 80.2¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-10-06?Sports
No$103 @ 1.9¢
US strike on Mexico by December 31?Politics
Yes$85 @ 12.0¢
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 40%?Politics
No$68 @ 92.1¢