0x4044…8de5

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4044798f1d60d92369c86cf5b6f1e497e2818de5
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+10.6pp

ROI

+51%

Win rate

48% @ 37.5¢

Brier

0.192

Resolved

883

Avg size

$113

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	47% (56/119)	+55%	119
Politics	50% (2/4)	+11%	4
Sports	67% (2/3)	+24%	3
Geopolitics	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Other119 bets
Hit rate
47% (56/119)
ROI
+55%
Politics4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+11%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+24%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

47% hit · 60/128

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?	Yes	$24	59.0¢	Won
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	No	$4	0.2¢	Lost
Epstein client list released in 2025?	Yes	$319	19.5¢	Lost
Will Trump endorse Susan Collins for ME-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?	No	$5	35.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$50	62.7¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$21	39.9¢	Lost
S&P 500 all time high by December 31?	No	$566	13.0¢	Lost
Will Rachel Maddow be named in newly released Epstein files?	Yes	$5	10.0¢	Lost
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 6, 2026?	Yes	$488	32.6¢	Won
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?	Yes	$747	86.1¢	Won
Grok 4.20 released by January 15?	Yes	$46	12.1¢	Lost
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 31 or later?	Yes	$7	3.3¢	Lost
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31?	Yes	$252	45.4¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$380	17.9¢	Lost
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.8% in January?	No	$31	4.4¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Satya Nadella in January 2026?	Yes	$108	85.8¢	Won
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?	No	$61	10.2¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	Yes	$260	13.0¢	Lost
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$19	2.4¢	Lost
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	No	$26	13.0¢	Won
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 12?	No	$589	88.2¢	Won
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 9?	Yes	$186	18.3¢	Won
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?	Yes	$7.2k	71.4¢	Won
US government shutdown Saturday?	No	$440	22.0¢	Lost
US government shutdown Saturday?	Yes	$1.6k	26.3¢	Won
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	$290	29.0¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 2?	No	$160	7.3¢	Lost
US strikes Iraq by February 28?	Yes	$28	14.2¢	Won
Will no government funding bill be passed by January 31, 2026?	No	$147	19.3¢	Lost
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?	Yes	$1.4k	86.6¢	Won
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?	No	$345	21.6¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7?	Yes	$99	17.4¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	$1.1k	29.0¢	Lost
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	No	$119	51.9¢	Won
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 17?	Yes	$186	65.4¢	Won
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?	No	$975	44.3¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?	Yes	$1.1k	29.7¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?	No	$70	5.8¢	Lost
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2025?	No	$211	60.0¢	Won
Brown University shooter arrested by December 19?	Yes	$114	32.0¢	Lost
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8?	No	$474	36.0¢	Lost
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?	Yes	$269	24.5¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	$2.0k	27.3¢	Lost
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?	No	$5.6k	37.9¢	Lost
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?	Yes	$573	58.2¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$2.5k	82.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	No	$9	30.0¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	No	$2.1k	48.9¢	Lost
Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025?	Yes	$274	23.4¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31?	Yes	$395	13.5¢	Lost

Will Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Won
Yes$24 @ 59.0¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Lost
No$4 @ 0.2¢
Epstein client list released in 2025?Lost
Yes$319 @ 19.5¢
Will Trump endorse Susan Collins for ME-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?Lost
No$5 @ 35.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$50 @ 62.7¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$21 @ 39.9¢
S&P 500 all time high by December 31?Lost
No$566 @ 13.0¢
Will Rachel Maddow be named in newly released Epstein files?Lost
Yes$5 @ 10.0¢
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 6, 2026?Won
Yes$488 @ 32.6¢
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?Won
Yes$747 @ 86.1¢
Grok 4.20 released by January 15?Lost
Yes$46 @ 12.1¢
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 31 or later?Lost
Yes$7 @ 3.3¢
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31?Won
Yes$252 @ 45.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$380 @ 17.9¢
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.8% in January?Lost
No$31 @ 4.4¢
Will Trump meet with Satya Nadella in January 2026?Won
Yes$108 @ 85.8¢
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?Won
No$61 @ 10.2¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?Lost
Yes$260 @ 13.0¢
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$19 @ 2.4¢
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?Won
No$26 @ 13.0¢
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 12?Won
No$589 @ 88.2¢
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 9?Won
Yes$186 @ 18.3¢
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?Won
Yes$7.2k @ 71.4¢
US government shutdown Saturday?Lost
No$440 @ 22.0¢
US government shutdown Saturday?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 26.3¢
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$290 @ 29.0¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 2?Lost
No$160 @ 7.3¢
US strikes Iraq by February 28?Won
Yes$28 @ 14.2¢
Will no government funding bill be passed by January 31, 2026?Lost
No$147 @ 19.3¢
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 86.6¢
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?Lost
No$345 @ 21.6¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7?Lost
Yes$99 @ 17.4¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Lost
No$1.1k @ 29.0¢
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?Won
No$119 @ 51.9¢
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 17?Won
Yes$186 @ 65.4¢
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?Lost
No$975 @ 44.3¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 29.7¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?Lost
No$70 @ 5.8¢
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2025?Won
No$211 @ 60.0¢
Brown University shooter arrested by December 19?Lost
Yes$114 @ 32.0¢
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8?Lost
No$474 @ 36.0¢
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?Lost
Yes$269 @ 24.5¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Lost
Yes$2.0k @ 27.3¢
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?Lost
No$5.6k @ 37.9¢
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?Won
Yes$573 @ 58.2¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$2.5k @ 82.0¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?Won
No$9 @ 30.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Lost
No$2.1k @ 48.9¢
Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025?Lost
Yes$274 @ 23.4¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31?Lost
Yes$395 @ 13.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8?	—	No	$474	36.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$281	13.5¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?	—	Yes	$120	12.0¢
Will Iran strike Jordan in March?	—	No	$66	35.0¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$32	16.0¢
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	—	Yes	$18	2.4¢
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Politics	No	$18	89.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?	—	No	$5	0.1¢
Spain vs. Austria: Team to Advance	—	Austria	$5	5.0¢
Will Trump endorse Susan Collins for ME-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?	Politics	No	$5	35.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$0	19.9¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?	—	Yes	$0	9.5¢

Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8?—
No$474 @ 36.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31?Geopolitics
Yes$281 @ 13.5¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?—
Yes$120 @ 12.0¢
Will Iran strike Jordan in March?—
No$66 @ 35.0¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics
Yes$32 @ 16.0¢
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?—
Yes$18 @ 2.4¢
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Politics
No$18 @ 89.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?—
No$5 @ 0.1¢
Spain vs. Austria: Team to Advance—
Austria$5 @ 5.0¢
Will Trump endorse Susan Collins for ME-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?Politics
No$5 @ 35.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Geopolitics
Yes$0 @ 19.9¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?—
Yes$0 @ 9.5¢