0x3ffe…e125

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x3ffe1712d9b5e0d8c176f1ede6b49b9b177ae125
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.0pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

73% @ 65.0¢

Brier

0.161

Resolved

3739

Avg size

$67

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	70% (239/340)	+8%	340
Politics	75% (48/64)	+3%	64
Sports	88% (21/24)	+19%	24
Geopolitics	85% (11/13)	-16%	13
Tech	67% (2/3)	+0%	3
Culture	100% (2/2)	+6%	2
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+439%	1

Other340 bets
Hit rate
70% (239/340)
ROI
+8%
Politics64 bets
Hit rate
75% (48/64)
ROI
+3%
Sports24 bets
Hit rate
88% (21/24)
ROI
+19%
Geopolitics13 bets
Hit rate
85% (11/13)
ROI
-16%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+0%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+6%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+439%

Track record

72% hit · 324/447

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	$189	94.5¢	Won
NBA: LeBron James and Bronny James Jr. to Play Together in 2026-27?	No	$425	85.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	$95	95.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	Yes	$189	94.7¢	Won
Will Mark Carney win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	$197	98.3¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	Yes	$88	88.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	$207	62.1¢	Won
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	No	$45	67.0¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in October?	Yes	$35	69.0¢	Won
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10?	No	$155	80.8¢	Won
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?	No	$86	85.6¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?	No	$1.3k	83.3¢	Lost
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	No	$77	77.0¢	Won
Will Kari Lake be a member of the Trump administration?	No	$194	79.3¢	Lost
TikTok sale announced by September 30?	No	$683	56.9¢	Won
Epstein client list released in 2025?	No	$1.8k	85.9¢	Won
Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration?	No	$4	20.0¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?	No	$1.1k	71.5¢	Won
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	No	$235	32.2¢	Won
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	Yes	$68	68.0¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Zohran Mamdani in November?	No	$292	83.3¢	Lost
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?	No	$107	82.3¢	Won
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?	No	$68	68.0¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in November?	No	$39	78.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$331	82.8¢	Won
US government shutdown by October 1?	No	$64	21.3¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$14	28.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$101	59.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$4.9k	41.1¢	Lost
Will "Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)	Yes	$2.7k	61.5¢	Lost
Lee Jae-myung arrested before July?	No	$51	63.4¢	Won
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$62	62.0¢	Won
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	No	$152	76.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?	No	$530	88.3¢	Won
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 5?	Yes	$3	1.6¢	Lost
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?	No	$101	82.0¢	Won
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?	Yes	$99	82.3¢	Won
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?	No	$484	72.5¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$71	71.0¢	Won
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$70	70.0¢	Lost
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?	No	$210	84.2¢	Won
500+ Measles cases in U.S. before April?	No	$79	79.5¢	Won
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?	No	$101	75.0¢	Won
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?	Yes	$24	47.8¢	Won
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	$431	74.0¢	Won
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison before 2027?	No	$1	4.8¢	Lost
Trump trade deal in April?	No	$20	15.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?	No	$305	78.1¢	Won
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?	No	$7.8k	79.9¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$186	46.5¢	Won

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Won
Yes$189 @ 94.5¢
NBA: LeBron James and Bronny James Jr. to Play Together in 2026-27?Won
No$425 @ 85.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?Won
Yes$95 @ 95.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?Won
Yes$189 @ 94.7¢
Will Mark Carney win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Won
No$197 @ 98.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?Won
Yes$88 @ 88.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Won
No$207 @ 62.1¢
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?Lost
No$45 @ 67.0¢
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in October?Won
Yes$35 @ 69.0¢
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10?Won
No$155 @ 80.8¢
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?Won
No$86 @ 85.6¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?Lost
No$1.3k @ 83.3¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Won
No$77 @ 77.0¢
Will Kari Lake be a member of the Trump administration?Lost
No$194 @ 79.3¢
TikTok sale announced by September 30?Won
No$683 @ 56.9¢
Epstein client list released in 2025?Won
No$1.8k @ 85.9¢
Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration? Lost
No$4 @ 20.0¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?Won
No$1.1k @ 71.5¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Won
No$235 @ 32.2¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Lost
Yes$68 @ 68.0¢
Will Trump talk to Zohran Mamdani in November?Lost
No$292 @ 83.3¢
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?Won
No$107 @ 82.3¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?Won
No$68 @ 68.0¢
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in November?Won
No$39 @ 78.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$331 @ 82.8¢
US government shutdown by October 1?Lost
No$64 @ 21.3¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
Yes$14 @ 28.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$101 @ 59.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$4.9k @ 41.1¢
Will "Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)Lost
Yes$2.7k @ 61.5¢
Lee Jae-myung arrested before July?Won
No$51 @ 63.4¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Won
Yes$62 @ 62.0¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?Won
No$152 @ 76.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?Won
No$530 @ 88.3¢
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 5?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.6¢
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?Won
No$101 @ 82.0¢
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?Won
Yes$99 @ 82.3¢
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?Won
No$484 @ 72.5¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$71 @ 71.0¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$70 @ 70.0¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?Won
No$210 @ 84.2¢
500+ Measles cases in U.S. before April?Won
No$79 @ 79.5¢
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?Won
No$101 @ 75.0¢
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?Won
Yes$24 @ 47.8¢
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$431 @ 74.0¢
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison before 2027?Lost
No$1 @ 4.8¢
Trump trade deal in April?Won
No$20 @ 15.0¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?Won
No$305 @ 78.1¢
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?Won
No$7.8k @ 79.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$186 @ 46.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$3.3k	89.1¢
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	Politics	No	$2.1k	84.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$2.0k	70.1¢
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.2k	88.4¢
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$1.2k	91.7¢
Iran nuclear test before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.1k	94.4¢
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$928	92.8¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	Geopolitics	Yes	$620	66.0¢
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$538	89.7¢
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Politics	Yes	$460	65.7¢
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Politics	Yes	$372	74.4¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$273	68.2¢
Yoon out of custody before 2027?	Politics	No	$253	84.2¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$191	63.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Politics	Yes	$189	94.5¢
China coup attempt before 2027?	Politics	No	$186	93.1¢
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping by October 31?	Politics	No	$173	86.5¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Politics	Yes	$160	80.0¢
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Politics	No	$146	72.8¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Tech	No	$139	69.5¢
Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$122	81.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$91	91.0¢
Will "Avengers: Doomsday" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Culture	Yes	$85	85.1¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	No	$78	78.0¢
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$75	75.0¢
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	Politics	No	$49	54.1¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$24	24.0¢

Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics
No$3.3k @ 89.1¢
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?Politics
No$2.1k @ 84.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$2.0k @ 70.1¢
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.2k @ 88.4¢
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$1.2k @ 91.7¢
Iran nuclear test before 2027?Politics
No$1.1k @ 94.4¢
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$928 @ 92.8¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Geopolitics
Yes$620 @ 66.0¢
China x Japan military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$538 @ 89.7¢
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Politics
Yes$460 @ 65.7¢
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?Politics
Yes$372 @ 74.4¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$273 @ 68.2¢
Yoon out of custody before 2027?Politics
No$253 @ 84.2¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$191 @ 63.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Politics
Yes$189 @ 94.5¢
China coup attempt before 2027?Politics
No$186 @ 93.1¢
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping by October 31?Politics
No$173 @ 86.5¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Politics
Yes$160 @ 80.0¢
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?Politics
No$146 @ 72.8¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?Tech
No$139 @ 69.5¢
Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$122 @ 81.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$91 @ 91.0¢
Will "Avengers: Doomsday" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Culture
Yes$85 @ 85.1¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
No$78 @ 78.0¢
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026?Politics
Yes$75 @ 75.0¢
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?Politics
No$49 @ 54.1¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$24 @ 24.0¢