0x3ffe…26f4

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x3ffe0f919dc7bac333dd33c0d5204bf8d0b426f4
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+3.8pp

ROI

+4%

Win rate

36% @ 31.8¢

Brier

0.169

Resolved

2440

Avg size

$43

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	37% (150/401)	+4%	401
Politics	48% (14/29)	+4%	29
Geopolitics	33% (3/9)	-10%	9
Sports	29% (2/7)	+6%	7
Crypto	0% (0/5)	-100%	5
Tech	67% (2/3)	+67%	3

Other401 bets
Hit rate
37% (150/401)
ROI
+4%
Politics29 bets
Hit rate
48% (14/29)
ROI
+4%
Geopolitics9 bets
Hit rate
33% (3/9)
ROI
-10%
Sports7 bets
Hit rate
29% (2/7)
ROI
+6%
Crypto5 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/5)
ROI
-100%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+67%

Track record

38% hit · 171/454

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 Week of September 28 2026?	Yes	$96	76.0¢	Won
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 in September?	Yes	$265	62.5¢	Lost
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?	No	$187	61.1¢	Won
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?	Yes	$174	28.9¢	Lost
OneFootball FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	$7	0.8¢	Lost
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch?	No	$21	0.5¢	Lost
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by May 31, 2026?	No	$6	30.0¢	Lost
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$25	63.8¢	Won
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	Yes	$318	20.1¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	$110	55.0¢	Won
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $710 on April 30?	No	$1	20.0¢	Lost
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $710 on April 30?	Yes	$205	75.9¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	$0	10.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	Yes	$255	21.3¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$435	72.5¢	Won
Will Tesla dip to $383 in February?	Yes	$7	1.1¢	Lost
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)	Della Maddalena	$68	27.0¢	Lost
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)	Makhachev	$73	73.0¢	Won
US government shutdown by October 1?	No	$20	28.0¢	Lost
Will Spain join the Board of Peace?	Yes	$40	3.0¢	Lost
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 Week of April 27 2026?	Yes	$0	1.3¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$69	17.3¢	Lost
VOOI FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	$108	83.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?	No	$55	23.0¢	Lost
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	Yes	$60	60.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$1.9k	64.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$150	15.0¢	Lost
Will Juliana Stratton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?	No	$1	0.6¢	Lost
Will Juliana Stratton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?	Yes	$115	41.5¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	No	$290	65.5¢	Won
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	No	$430	36.0¢	Lost
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$177	19.1¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?	No	$113	41.3¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?	Yes	$99	62.6¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 10?	No	$30	3.7¢	Lost
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on April 20?	No	$48	6.2¢	Lost
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on April 29?	Yes	$26	25.0¢	Lost
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on May 7?	No	$1	7.1¢	Lost
Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale?	Yes	$10	10.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?	No	$20	0.1¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?	Yes	$40	0.8¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 30?	Yes	$9	7.0¢	Lost
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	$387	11.7¢	Lost
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on April 23?	Yes	$6	4.7¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?	No	$5	0.1¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?	Yes	$90	9.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?	No	$49	86.9¢	Won
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	No	$48	85.5¢	Won
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?	No	$261	74.9¢	Won
Will Hegseth or Cooper say "America" 15+ times during press conference?	No	$1	36.0¢	Won

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 Week of September 28 2026?Won
Yes$96 @ 76.0¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 in September?Lost
Yes$265 @ 62.5¢
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Won
No$187 @ 61.1¢
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$174 @ 28.9¢
OneFootball FDV above $100M one day after launch?Lost
Yes$7 @ 0.8¢
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch?Lost
No$21 @ 0.5¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$6 @ 30.0¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$25 @ 63.8¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Lost
Yes$318 @ 20.1¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Won
No$110 @ 55.0¢
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $710 on April 30?Lost
No$1 @ 20.0¢
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $710 on April 30?Won
Yes$205 @ 75.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Lost
No$0 @ 10.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Won
Yes$255 @ 21.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$435 @ 72.5¢
Will Tesla dip to $383 in February?Lost
Yes$7 @ 1.1¢
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)Lost
Della Maddalena$68 @ 27.0¢
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)Won
Makhachev$73 @ 73.0¢
US government shutdown by October 1?Lost
No$20 @ 28.0¢
Will Spain join the Board of Peace?Lost
Yes$40 @ 3.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 Week of April 27 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.3¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$69 @ 17.3¢
VOOI FDV above $500M one day after launch?Won
No$108 @ 83.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?Lost
No$55 @ 23.0¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Lost
Yes$60 @ 60.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1.9k @ 64.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$150 @ 15.0¢
Will Juliana Stratton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?Lost
No$1 @ 0.6¢
Will Juliana Stratton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?Won
Yes$115 @ 41.5¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Won
No$290 @ 65.5¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Lost
No$430 @ 36.0¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Won
Yes$177 @ 19.1¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?Won
No$113 @ 41.3¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?Lost
Yes$99 @ 62.6¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 10?Lost
No$30 @ 3.7¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on April 20?Lost
No$48 @ 6.2¢
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on April 29?Lost
Yes$26 @ 25.0¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on May 7?Lost
No$1 @ 7.1¢
Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale?Lost
Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?Lost
No$20 @ 0.1¢
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?Lost
Yes$40 @ 0.8¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 30?Lost
Yes$9 @ 7.0¢
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?Lost
Yes$387 @ 11.7¢
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on April 23?Lost
Yes$6 @ 4.7¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?Lost
No$5 @ 0.1¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?Won
Yes$90 @ 9.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?Won
No$49 @ 86.9¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Won
No$48 @ 85.5¢
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?Won
No$261 @ 74.9¢
Will Hegseth or Cooper say "America" 15+ times during press conference?Won
No$1 @ 36.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$244	10.1¢
Will the USS George Washington depart CENTCOM by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$56	55.0¢

Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by September 30?Politics
Yes$244 @ 10.1¢
Will the USS George Washington depart CENTCOM by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$56 @ 55.0¢