0x3f4b…f574

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x3f4bab51c0894611045d5faa7cc9605b3b45f574
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.1pp

ROI

+18%

Win rate

59% @ 52.5¢

Brier

0.140

Resolved

495

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	62% (42/68)	+22%	68
Other	49% (26/53)	-13%	53
Sports	39% (7/18)	-37%	18
Tech	50% (5/10)	+40%	10
Crypto	70% (7/10)	+42%	10
Geopolitics	56% (5/9)	+10%	9
Culture	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Science	100% (1/1)	+59%	1

Politics68 bets
Hit rate
62% (42/68)
ROI
+22%
Other53 bets
Hit rate
49% (26/53)
ROI
-13%
Sports18 bets
Hit rate
39% (7/18)
ROI
-37%
Tech10 bets
Hit rate
50% (5/10)
ROI
+40%
Crypto10 bets
Hit rate
70% (7/10)
ROI
+42%
Geopolitics9 bets
Hit rate
56% (5/9)
ROI
+10%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+59%

Track record

54% hit · 93/172

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?	Yes	$6	61.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	No	$19	76.8¢	Won
Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	$23	36.0¢	Lost
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	$33	78.5¢	Won
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?	Yes	$7	45.0¢	Won
Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	$49	71.7¢	Won
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$18	88.9¢	Won
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	$19	63.0¢	Won
Will Bhavitha Mandava be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?	No	$11	74.0¢	Won
Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$25	34.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$49	60.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$29	19.3¢	Lost
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?	No	$5	21.0¢	Lost
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	$17	87.2¢	Won
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	Yes	$10	68.4¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	No	$103	78.8¢	Won
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$1	2.7¢	Lost
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$10	10.3¢	Lost
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$20	67.7¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$12	49.6¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	No	$15	88.0¢	Won
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$57	79.8¢	Won
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	$2	30.0¢	Lost
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?	No	$176	77.4¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	Yes	$5	21.9¢	Lost
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan?	No	$10	13.6¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	$7	29.6¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$4	78.8¢	Won
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$10	69.0¢	Won
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	$12	62.0¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?	No	$20	75.9¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$20	81.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	$14	86.7¢	Won
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	$2	18.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$65	51.0¢	Won
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	$13	19.7¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?	No	$24	78.8¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	$3	68.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	$30	46.8¢	Won
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$13	36.6¢	Lost
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026	Yes	$10	47.0¢	Won
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	$9	89.0¢	Won
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	$21	28.3¢	Lost
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?	Yes	$2	6.3¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$10	20.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$5	34.6¢	Won
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$20	18.6¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	$22	59.8¢	Won
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$100	71.0¢	Won
Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	$31	87.4¢	Won

Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?Lost
Yes$6 @ 61.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?Won
No$19 @ 76.8¢
Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Lost
Yes$23 @ 36.0¢
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Won
No$33 @ 78.5¢
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?Won
Yes$7 @ 45.0¢
Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Won
No$49 @ 71.7¢
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
No$18 @ 88.9¢
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?Won
No$19 @ 63.0¢
Will Bhavitha Mandava be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?Won
No$11 @ 74.0¢
Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$25 @ 34.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$49 @ 60.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$29 @ 19.3¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 21.0¢
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?Won
Yes$17 @ 87.2¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 68.4¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Won
No$103 @ 78.8¢
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.7¢
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$10 @ 10.3¢
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$20 @ 67.7¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
No$12 @ 49.6¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?Won
No$15 @ 88.0¢
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$57 @ 79.8¢
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Lost
No$2 @ 30.0¢
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?Won
No$176 @ 77.4¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 21.9¢
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan?Lost
No$10 @ 13.6¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Won
No$7 @ 29.6¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$4 @ 78.8¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$10 @ 69.0¢
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?Lost
Yes$12 @ 62.0¢
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?Won
No$20 @ 75.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$20 @ 81.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Won
No$14 @ 86.7¢
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Lost
Yes$2 @ 18.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$65 @ 51.0¢
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Lost
Yes$13 @ 19.7¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?Won
No$24 @ 78.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Won
No$3 @ 68.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?Won
No$30 @ 46.8¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
No$13 @ 36.6¢
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026Won
Yes$10 @ 47.0¢
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting?Won
Yes$9 @ 89.0¢
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Lost
Yes$21 @ 28.3¢
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 6.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$10 @ 20.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$5 @ 34.6¢
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$20 @ 18.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?Won
No$22 @ 59.8¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$100 @ 71.0¢
Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Won
Yes$31 @ 87.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$1.7k	79.9¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$441	20.5¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$386	32.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$67	70.9¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$50	48.3¢
Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$48	18.1¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$46	46.2¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$40	5.0¢
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$39	26.3¢
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$39	33.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$28	19.5¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$26	25.8¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$25	12.6¢
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$22	43.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$21	69.0¢
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	No	$18	36.0¢
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$17	13.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	—	Yes	$13	88.2¢
Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$11	4.7¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Business	Yes	$9	85.0¢
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$6	24.1¢
Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$5	0.8¢
Will JetBlue Airways announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Crypto	Yes	$2	8.0¢
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	1.5¢

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$1.7k @ 79.9¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$441 @ 20.5¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$386 @ 32.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$67 @ 70.9¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$50 @ 48.3¢
Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$48 @ 18.1¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$46 @ 46.2¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
Yes$40 @ 5.0¢
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?Crypto
Yes$39 @ 26.3¢
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Politics
Yes$39 @ 33.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?Politics
No$28 @ 19.5¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$26 @ 25.8¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$25 @ 12.6¢
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$22 @ 43.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$21 @ 69.0¢
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
No$18 @ 36.0¢
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$17 @ 13.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?—
Yes$13 @ 88.2¢
Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?Tech
Yes$11 @ 4.7¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Business
Yes$9 @ 85.0¢
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?Politics
Yes$6 @ 24.1¢
Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Culture
Yes$5 @ 0.8¢
Will JetBlue Airways announce bankruptcy before 2027?Crypto
Yes$2 @ 8.0¢
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 1.5¢