0x3f3b…1d77

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x3f3bfc6d754e416699793901ffb12ddeee9f1d77
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.5pp

ROI

+12%

Win rate

42% @ 35.8¢

Brier

0.118

Resolved

3256

Avg size

$147

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	33% (66/203)	+10%	203
Politics	50% (6/12)	+31%	12
Crypto	0% (0/8)	-100%	8
Economy	60% (3/5)	+115%	5
Tech	33% (1/3)	+6%	3
Science	100% (1/1)	+24%	1
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+1150%	1

Other203 bets
Hit rate
33% (66/203)
ROI
+10%
Politics12 bets
Hit rate
50% (6/12)
ROI
+31%
Crypto8 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/8)
ROI
-100%
Economy5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
+115%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+6%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+24%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+1150%

Track record

33% hit · 78/233

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the December meeting?	Yes	$0	0.7¢	Lost
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in February?	Yes	$84	12.5¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?	Yes	$1	0.7¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?	Yes	$50	5.0¢	Lost
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$340	68.0¢	Lost
Gov Shutdown Odds >90% Friday Night (12-1 AM)?	Yes	$4.7k	78.6¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$40	4.0¢	Lost
No change in Bank of England's interest rates after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.4%?	Yes	$186	15.2¢	Won
Will Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) win Best Director at the 83rd Golden Globes?	Yes	$44	88.6¢	Won
Will Nvidia run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?	Yes	$15	6.1¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?	No	$295	12.7¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?	Yes	$520	59.7¢	Won
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31?	Yes	$1	0.7¢	Lost
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.5k	59.0¢	Won
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?	No	$943	75.1¢	Won
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?	Yes	$1.6k	7.7¢	Lost
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Visual Effects at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	$3	6.9¢	Lost
Seahawks vs. Patriots	Patriots	$1.9k	32.0¢	Lost
Seahawks vs. Patriots	Seahawks	$13.6k	68.0¢	Won
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?	No	$712	13.0¢	Lost
Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?	Yes	$108	2.8¢	Lost
Will the US add more than 125k jobs in December?	Yes	$4	14.0¢	Lost
Will Denver face Seattle in Super Bowl LX?	No	$11	84.0¢	Won
Will DTMF (Bad Bunny) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Yes	$15	13.5¢	Lost
Insurrection Act invoked by January 31?	Yes	$7	5.0¢	Lost
Will Diego Pavia win the Heisman Trophy?	Yes	$8	24.0¢	Lost
Will ENA: Dream BBQ win Outstanding Visual Style at the 2025 Steam Awards?	No	$294	81.0¢	Won
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?	Yes	$395	4.6¢	Lost
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	$255	51.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$3.2k	66.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?	No	$2.5k	53.6¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February?	Yes	$47	2.1¢	Lost
Will Seth Rogen (The Studio) win Best Actor – Television Musical or Comedy at the 83rd Golden Globes?	Yes	$13	87.0¢	Won
Will the Department of Homeland Security receive full-year funding by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$714	7.0¢	Lost
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?	Yes	$3.7k	28.0¢	Won
Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$2.7k	88.8¢	Won
Will "MUTT - Leon Thomas" win Best R&B Album at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?	Yes	$200	89.0¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	$28	1.4¢	Lost
Will "Abracadabra - Lady Gaga" win Best Dance Pop Recording at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?	Yes	$96	87.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?	No	$870	87.0¢	Won
Fight to Go the Distance?	No	$2	65.0¢	Won
Will the New England Patriots win the Super Bowl?	Yes	$3.2k	32.0¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the January meeting?	Yes	$5	1.0¢	Lost
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	$28	11.0¢	Lost
No change in Bank of England's interest rates after February 2026 meeting?	No	$19	5.2¢	Lost
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	No	$202	66.4¢	Won
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	$375	8.4¢	Lost
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?	No	$407	5.2¢	Lost
ETH flipped in 2025?	Yes	$4	0.7¢	Lost

Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the December meeting?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.7¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in February?Lost
Yes$84 @ 12.5¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.7¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?Lost
Yes$50 @ 5.0¢
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$340 @ 68.0¢
Gov Shutdown Odds >90% Friday Night (12-1 AM)?Won
Yes$4.7k @ 78.6¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
Yes$40 @ 4.0¢
No change in Bank of England's interest rates after December 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.4%?Won
Yes$186 @ 15.2¢
Will Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) win Best Director at the 83rd Golden Globes?Won
Yes$44 @ 88.6¢
Will Nvidia run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Lost
Yes$15 @ 6.1¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?Lost
No$295 @ 12.7¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?Won
Yes$520 @ 59.7¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.7¢
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 59.0¢
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?Won
No$943 @ 75.1¢
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?Lost
Yes$1.6k @ 7.7¢
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Visual Effects at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
No$3 @ 6.9¢
Seahawks vs. PatriotsLost
Patriots$1.9k @ 32.0¢
Seahawks vs. PatriotsWon
Seahawks$13.6k @ 68.0¢
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?Lost
No$712 @ 13.0¢
Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?Lost
Yes$108 @ 2.8¢
Will the US add more than 125k jobs in December?Lost
Yes$4 @ 14.0¢
Will Denver face Seattle in Super Bowl LX?Won
No$11 @ 84.0¢
Will DTMF (Bad Bunny) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Lost
Yes$15 @ 13.5¢
Insurrection Act invoked by January 31?Lost
Yes$7 @ 5.0¢
Will Diego Pavia win the Heisman Trophy?Lost
Yes$8 @ 24.0¢
Will ENA: Dream BBQ win Outstanding Visual Style at the 2025 Steam Awards?Won
No$294 @ 81.0¢
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?Lost
Yes$395 @ 4.6¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$255 @ 51.0¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$3.2k @ 66.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?Lost
No$2.5k @ 53.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February?Lost
Yes$47 @ 2.1¢
Will Seth Rogen (The Studio) win Best Actor – Television Musical or Comedy at the 83rd Golden Globes?Won
Yes$13 @ 87.0¢
Will the Department of Homeland Security receive full-year funding by February 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$714 @ 7.0¢
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?Won
Yes$3.7k @ 28.0¢
Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
Yes$2.7k @ 88.8¢
Will "MUTT - Leon Thomas" win Best R&B Album at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?Won
Yes$200 @ 89.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?Lost
Yes$28 @ 1.4¢
Will "Abracadabra - Lady Gaga" win Best Dance Pop Recording at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?Won
Yes$96 @ 87.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?Won
No$870 @ 87.0¢
Fight to Go the Distance?Won
No$2 @ 65.0¢
Will the New England Patriots win the Super Bowl?Lost
Yes$3.2k @ 32.0¢
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the January meeting?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.0¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$28 @ 11.0¢
No change in Bank of England's interest rates after February 2026 meeting?Lost
No$19 @ 5.2¢
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Won
No$202 @ 66.4¢
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Lost
Yes$375 @ 8.4¢
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?Lost
No$407 @ 5.2¢
ETH flipped in 2025?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Politics	No	$20.8k	73.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$13.9k	49.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$10.6k	34.2¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$8.3k	35.8¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$5.9k	19.7¢
Negative GDP growth in 2026?	Economy	No	$5.8k	87.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$5.5k	19.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$4.6k	15.8¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$4.6k	29.1¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4.1k	31.7¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$2.9k	34.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Politics	No	$2.7k	90.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$2.5k	24.6¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	No	$2.5k	78.2¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$2.3k	46.7¢
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?	Politics	Yes	$2.0k	24.7¢
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.9k	91.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$1.8k	22.5¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$1.7k	15.6¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1.7k	13.0¢
Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026?	Culture	No	$1.6k	68.4¢
Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026?	Culture	Yes	$1.4k	69.1¢
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	Yes	$1.2k	45.3¢
Will the Republicans win the West Virginia Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$923	92.3¢
Will the Democrats win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$806	91.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$733	46.5¢
Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Tech	Yes	$696	15.5¢
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$650	15.1¢
Will the Republicans win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$574	92.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$523	7.6¢

Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
No$20.8k @ 73.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$13.9k @ 49.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$10.6k @ 34.2¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$8.3k @ 35.8¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$5.9k @ 19.7¢
Negative GDP growth in 2026?Economy
No$5.8k @ 87.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$5.5k @ 19.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$4.6k @ 15.8¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$4.6k @ 29.1¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$4.1k @ 31.7¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$2.9k @ 34.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Politics
No$2.7k @ 90.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$2.5k @ 24.6¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
No$2.5k @ 78.2¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$2.3k @ 46.7¢
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?Politics
Yes$2.0k @ 24.7¢
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?Politics
No$1.9k @ 91.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$1.8k @ 22.5¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$1.7k @ 15.6¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$1.7k @ 13.0¢
Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026?Culture
No$1.6k @ 68.4¢
Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026?Culture
Yes$1.4k @ 69.1¢
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
Yes$1.2k @ 45.3¢
Will the Republicans win the West Virginia Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$923 @ 92.3¢
Will the Democrats win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$806 @ 91.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$733 @ 46.5¢
Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Tech
Yes$696 @ 15.5¢
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?Politics
Yes$650 @ 15.1¢
Will the Republicans win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$574 @ 92.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$523 @ 7.6¢