0x3e94…79a1

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x3e940408e48f247fc09613c48c2636c34e5b79a1
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+12.3pp

ROI

+17%

Win rate

84% @ 71.9¢

Brier

0.066

Resolved

107

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	76% (31/41)	+15%	41
Politics	100% (3/3)	+18%	3
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Economy	100% (1/1)	+12%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+880%	1

Other41 bets
Hit rate
76% (31/41)
ROI
+15%
Politics3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+18%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+12%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+880%

Track record

77% hit · 36/47

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in November?	No	$2	87.0¢	Won
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-01-18?	Yes	$4	84.4¢	Won
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	No	$14	82.6¢	Won
Will Netherlands qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$4	82.5¢	Won
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?	No	$4	86.0¢	Won
Will FrP win the second most seats in the Norway election?	Yes	$9	89.0¢	Won
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?	No	$1	57.0¢	Won
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?	No	$4	80.0¢	Won
Bitcoin ETF Flows on January 20?	Negative	$0	6.0¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?	No	$4	86.6¢	Won
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?	No	$4	79.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin ETF Flows on January 12?	Positive	$0	11.0¢	Won
Pavel Durov flees France by Sep 15?	No	$0	63.0¢	Won
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?	No	$18	89.8¢	Won
Pavel Durov released in August?	No	$3	63.7¢	Lost
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-01-19?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Trump & Elon reduce the deficit in 2025?	No	$4	88.9¢	Won
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	$13	87.1¢	Won
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	No	$1	81.0¢	Won
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election?	No	$1	6.8¢	Lost
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% in 2025?	No	$4	83.0¢	Won
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?	No	$1	10.2¢	Won
Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31?	No	$21	83.4¢	Won
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5	Over	$0	0.7¢	Lost
Bitcoin ETF Flows on January 9?	Negative	$0	3.0¢	Won
Will Sturla Holm Laegreid (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Men's 15km Mass Start at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Lost
Will a Republican win Florida in the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Yes	$1	83.0¢	Won
Will Norway win on 2025-11-16?	Yes	$1	76.0¢	Won
Will Lloyds fail by June 30, 2026?	No	$4	89.3¢	Won
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025?	No	$4	77.0¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran before September?	No	$4	86.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	$4	86.0¢	Won
Will France win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's 4 X 7.5km Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?	No	$1	40.0¢	Lost
Will Johan-Olav Botn (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Men's 15km Mass Start at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?	Yes	$1	3.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	No	$225	87.9¢	Won
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	No	$4	87.0¢	Won
Will R win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?	Yes	$9	88.0¢	Won
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea in 2025?	No	$4	89.0¢	Won
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?	No	$8	80.0¢	Won
Will Fulham vs. Manchester City end in a draw?	Yes	$0	3.1¢	Lost
Will FrP win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election?	Yes	$1	7.1¢	Lost
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-01-17?	Yes	$4	73.0¢	Won
Israel strike on Iran on June 24?	Yes	$4	85.6¢	Won
Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway?	Yes	$4	88.0¢	Won
Iran nuclear test in 2025?	No	$4	88.0¢	Won
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	No	$4	88.0¢	Won

Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in November?Won
No$2 @ 87.0¢
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-01-18?Won
Yes$4 @ 84.4¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Won
No$14 @ 82.6¢
Will Netherlands qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$4 @ 82.5¢
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?Won
No$4 @ 86.0¢
Will FrP win the second most seats in the Norway election?Won
Yes$9 @ 89.0¢
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?Won
No$1 @ 57.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?Won
No$4 @ 80.0¢
Bitcoin ETF Flows on January 20?Won
Negative$0 @ 6.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?Won
No$4 @ 86.6¢
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?Lost
No$4 @ 79.0¢
Bitcoin ETF Flows on January 12?Won
Positive$0 @ 11.0¢
Pavel Durov flees France by Sep 15?Won
No$0 @ 63.0¢
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?Won
No$18 @ 89.8¢
Pavel Durov released in August?Lost
No$3 @ 63.7¢
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-01-19?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Trump & Elon reduce the deficit in 2025? Won
No$4 @ 88.9¢
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Won
No$13 @ 87.1¢
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 81.0¢
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election?Lost
No$1 @ 6.8¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% in 2025?Won
No$4 @ 83.0¢
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?Won
No$1 @ 10.2¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31?Won
No$21 @ 83.4¢
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5Lost
Over$0 @ 0.7¢
Bitcoin ETF Flows on January 9?Won
Negative$0 @ 3.0¢
Will Sturla Holm Laegreid (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Men's 15km Mass Start at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Will a Republican win Florida in the 2024 US Presidential Election?Won
Yes$1 @ 83.0¢
Will Norway win on 2025-11-16?Won
Yes$1 @ 76.0¢
Will Lloyds fail by June 30, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 89.3¢
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025?Won
No$4 @ 77.0¢
Israel strikes Iran before September?Won
No$4 @ 86.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Won
No$4 @ 86.0¢
Will France win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's 4 X 7.5km Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?Lost
No$1 @ 40.0¢
Will Johan-Olav Botn (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Men's 15km Mass Start at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?Won
No$225 @ 87.9¢
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?Won
No$4 @ 87.0¢
Will R win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?Won
Yes$9 @ 88.0¢
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea in 2025?Won
No$4 @ 89.0¢
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?Won
No$8 @ 80.0¢
Will Fulham vs. Manchester City end in a draw?Lost
Yes$0 @ 3.1¢
Will FrP win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.1¢
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-01-17?Won
Yes$4 @ 73.0¢
Israel strike on Iran on June 24?Won
Yes$4 @ 85.6¢
Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway?Won
Yes$4 @ 88.0¢
Iran nuclear test in 2025?Won
No$4 @ 88.0¢
Xi Jinping out in 2025?Won
No$4 @ 88.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Crypto	No	$54	90.5¢
Will Wells Fargo fail by end of 2026?	Economy	No	$39	96.4¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	No	$22	88.9¢
Will HSBC fail by end of 2026?	Economy	No	$21	95.5¢
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	No	$5	94.2¢
Will JPMorgan Chase fail by end of 2026?	Economy	No	$3	90.0¢
Will Goldman Sachs fail by end of 2026?	Economy	No	$1	95.2¢

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?Crypto
No$54 @ 90.5¢
Will Wells Fargo fail by end of 2026?Economy
No$39 @ 96.4¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
No$22 @ 88.9¢
Will HSBC fail by end of 2026?Economy
No$21 @ 95.5¢
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
No$5 @ 94.2¢
Will JPMorgan Chase fail by end of 2026?Economy
No$3 @ 90.0¢
Will Goldman Sachs fail by end of 2026?Economy
No$1 @ 95.2¢