← Smart money
0x3e5d…a2e6
ProfitableEdge
+15.8pp
ROI
+53%
Win rate
62% @ 45.8¢
Brier
0.276
Resolved
52
Avg size
$55
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 47% (7/15) | +75% | 15 |
| Politics | 71% (5/7) | +1% | 7 |
| Sports | 100% (2/2) | +30% | 2 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (1/1) | +18% | 1 |
- Other15 bets
- Hit rate
- 47% (7/15)
- ROI
- +75%
- Politics7 bets
- Hit rate
- 71% (5/7)
- ROI
- +1%
- Sports2 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (2/2)
- ROI
- +30%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +18%
Track record
60% hit · 15/25- Yes$350 @ 75.0¢
- No$100 @ 70.0¢
- Yes$3 @ 8.0¢
- Yes$408 @ 18.3¢
- No$100 @ 85.0¢
- No$101 @ 80.0¢
- No$53 @ 68.0¢
- No$100 @ 83.0¢
- No$128 @ 85.0¢
- Nuggets$33 @ 76.0¢
- Yes$50 @ 79.1¢
- Yes$44 @ 62.1¢
- Yes$31 @ 73.7¢
- Yes$50 @ 53.0¢
- Yes$25 @ 60.0¢
- Canadiens$67 @ 67.0¢
- No$100 @ 82.0¢
- Yes$500 @ 69.0¢
- Yes$100 @ 68.5¢
- No$261 @ 74.4¢
- Grizzlies$7 @ 7.0¢
- No$50 @ 60.0¢
- Yes$17 @ 30.0¢
- No$100 @ 81.0¢
- Yes$80 @ 4.7¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Politics | Yes | $125 | 92.0¢ |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Politics | No | $74 | 92.7¢ |
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $50 | 79.0¢ |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $50 | 71.0¢ |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $50 | 65.0¢ |
| Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat? | Politics | Yes | $9 | 87.0¢ |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | Politics | No | $2 | 90.0¢ |
- Yes$125 @ 92.0¢
- No$74 @ 92.7¢
- Yes$50 @ 79.0¢
- Yes$50 @ 71.0¢
- Yes$50 @ 65.0¢
- Yes$9 @ 87.0¢
- No$2 @ 90.0¢