0x3cbe…2520

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x3cbe3e9b5f0ee478d0a8ef56b2851ef71bf22520
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.2pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

78% @ 69.2¢

Brier

0.162

Resolved

162

Avg size

$13

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Sports	79% (109/138)	+14%	138
Science	78% (75/96)	+9%	96
Other	74% (40/54)	-5%	54
Politics	76% (22/29)	+4%	29
Tech	86% (12/14)	+29%	14
Geopolitics	100% (13/13)	+29%	13
Crypto	100% (7/7)	+16%	7
Economy	100% (1/1)	+8%	1
Business	100% (1/1)	+5%	1

Sports138 bets
Hit rate
79% (109/138)
ROI
+14%
Science96 bets
Hit rate
78% (75/96)
ROI
+9%
Other54 bets
Hit rate
74% (40/54)
ROI
-5%
Politics29 bets
Hit rate
76% (22/29)
ROI
+4%
Tech14 bets
Hit rate
86% (12/14)
ROI
+29%
Geopolitics13 bets
Hit rate
100% (13/13)
ROI
+29%
Crypto7 bets
Hit rate
100% (7/7)
ROI
+16%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+8%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+5%

Track record

79% hit · 280/353

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026?	No	$8	93.0¢	Won
China Open: Alexander Zverev vs Cameron Norrie	Alexander Zverev	$8	87.0¢	Won
Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 1 and 3 hours?	Yes	$5	69.0¢	Won
Asian Games Men: India vs Sri Lanka	India	$8	87.0¢	Won
Will Claude go down 5-7 times in September?	Yes	$5	74.0¢	Won
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	$8	95.0¢	Won
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	No	$4	85.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on September 30?	No	$5	60.0¢	Won
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	No	$5	91.0¢	Won
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs	Jiri Lehecka	$8	88.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?	No	$4	89.0¢	Won
China Open: Ignacio Buse vs Quentin Halys	Quentin Halys	$8	95.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on September 30?	No	$5	77.0¢	Won
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by September 30?	No	$5	94.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?	No	$8	95.0¢	Won
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Kei Nishikori vs Frances Tiafoe	Frances Tiafoe	$8	84.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026?	No	$8	95.1¢	Won
Will Sacramento Republic FC win on 2026-09-30?	Yes	$5	63.0¢	Won
Will $LAPTOP dip to $0.05 by September 30, 2026?	No	$8	84.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	$4	89.0¢	Won
Australia Tour of South Africa ODIs: South Africa vs Australia	Australia	$8	87.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on September 30?	No	$5	69.0¢	Won
Will Ink launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	$5	95.0¢	Won
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$5	78.5¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on September 30?	No	$5	74.0¢	Won
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-09-30?	Yes	$5	67.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in September?	No	$8	94.2¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September?	No	$8	91.1¢	Won
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	$5	79.5¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in September?	No	$8	95.5¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?	No	$8	90.0¢	Won
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by September 30?	Yes	$5	84.0¢	Won
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in September?	No	$5	94.0¢	Won
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 in September?	No	$8	88.0¢	Won
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-09-30?	Yes	$5	74.0¢	Won
Will OL Lyonnes win on 2026-09-30?	Yes	$5	70.0¢	Lost
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	$5	93.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on September 30?	No	$5	75.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on September 30?	No	$5	68.0¢	Won
Will South Africa win on 2026-09-30?	Yes	$5	76.0¢	Won
Will Arsenal WFC win on 2026-09-30?	Yes	$5	69.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on September 30?	No	$5	66.0¢	Lost
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in September?	No	$5	95.0¢	Won
Will Lithuania vs. Andorra end in a draw?	No	$5	74.0¢	Won
West Indies Tour of India ODIs: India vs West Indies	India	$16	86.5¢	Won
Will Seychelles win on 2026-09-30?	No	$5	75.0¢	Won
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	$5	93.4¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	No	$5	72.0¢	Lost
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	$4	89.0¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$4	76.4¢	Lost

Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026?Won
No$8 @ 93.0¢
China Open: Alexander Zverev vs Cameron NorrieWon
Alexander Zverev$8 @ 87.0¢
Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 1 and 3 hours?Won
Yes$5 @ 69.0¢
Asian Games Men: India vs Sri LankaWon
India$8 @ 87.0¢
Will Claude go down 5-7 times in September?Won
Yes$5 @ 74.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Won
No$8 @ 95.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 85.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on September 30?Won
No$5 @ 60.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 91.0¢
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou BergsWon
Jiri Lehecka$8 @ 88.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?Won
No$4 @ 89.0¢
China Open: Ignacio Buse vs Quentin HalysWon
Quentin Halys$8 @ 95.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on September 30?Won
No$5 @ 77.0¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by September 30?Won
No$5 @ 94.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?Won
No$8 @ 95.0¢
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Kei Nishikori vs Frances TiafoeWon
Frances Tiafoe$8 @ 84.0¢
Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026?Won
No$8 @ 95.1¢
Will Sacramento Republic FC win on 2026-09-30?Won
Yes$5 @ 63.0¢
Will $LAPTOP dip to $0.05 by September 30, 2026?Won
No$8 @ 84.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 89.0¢
Australia Tour of South Africa ODIs: South Africa vs AustraliaWon
Australia$8 @ 87.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on September 30?Won
No$5 @ 69.0¢
Will Ink launch a token by September 30, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 95.0¢
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 78.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on September 30?Won
No$5 @ 74.0¢
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-09-30?Won
Yes$5 @ 67.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in September?Won
No$8 @ 94.2¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September?Won
No$8 @ 91.1¢
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from September 25 to October 2, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 79.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in September?Won
No$8 @ 95.5¢
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?Won
No$8 @ 90.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by September 30?Won
Yes$5 @ 84.0¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in September?Won
No$5 @ 94.0¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 in September?Won
No$8 @ 88.0¢
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-09-30?Won
Yes$5 @ 74.0¢
Will OL Lyonnes win on 2026-09-30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 70.0¢
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?Won
Yes$5 @ 93.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on September 30?Won
No$5 @ 75.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on September 30?Won
No$5 @ 68.0¢
Will South Africa win on 2026-09-30?Won
Yes$5 @ 76.0¢
Will Arsenal WFC win on 2026-09-30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 69.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on September 30?Lost
No$5 @ 66.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in September?Won
No$5 @ 95.0¢
Will Lithuania vs. Andorra end in a draw?Won
No$5 @ 74.0¢
West Indies Tour of India ODIs: India vs West IndiesWon
India$16 @ 86.5¢
Will Seychelles win on 2026-09-30?Won
No$5 @ 75.0¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Won
No$5 @ 93.4¢
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 72.0¢
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Won
No$4 @ 89.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 76.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Politics	No	$26	81.4¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 September 28-October 4?	Crypto	No	$16	92.5¢
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	No	$16	90.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	Politics	No	$16	84.5¢
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$13	79.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on October 1?	Science	No	$10	75.5¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on or prior to October 1, 2026?	Tech	No	$10	79.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 2?	Science	No	$10	73.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on October 1?	Science	No	$8	66.0¢
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$8	88.0¢
Flávio Bolsonaro participates in debate before first round?	Politics	Yes	$8	95.0¢
Will Manuela D'Ávila win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?	Politics	No	$8	95.0¢
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $130B by September 30?	Other	No	$8	93.0¢
Will Celina Leão win the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial election?	Politics	Yes	$8	91.0¢
Will Marina Silva win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?	Politics	No	$8	91.0¢
Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$8	89.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Politics	No	$8	89.0¢
Will Rui Costa win the most votes in the 2026 Bahia Senate election?	Politics	Yes	$8	86.0¢
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$8	86.0¢
Will Leila do Vôlei win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?	Politics	No	$8	90.0¢
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$8	88.0¢
National Cricket League, Women: Western Australia vs Tasmania	Sports	Tasmania	$8	88.0¢
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Politics	Yes	$8	88.2¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 5 and October 11, 2026?	Tech	No	$8	86.2¢
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$8	84.0¢
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Politics	No	$8	83.0¢
Will any other model be the best AI model on October 5, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$8	95.0¢
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 9, 2026?	Tech	No	$7	94.6¢
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-10-01?	Sports	Yes	$7	61.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on October 1?	Science	No	$5	80.0¢

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?Politics
No$26 @ 81.4¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 September 28-October 4?Crypto
No$16 @ 92.5¢
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
No$16 @ 90.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Politics
No$16 @ 84.5¢
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Politics
Yes$13 @ 79.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on October 1?Science
No$10 @ 75.5¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on or prior to October 1, 2026?Tech
No$10 @ 79.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 2?Science
No$10 @ 73.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on October 1?Science
No$8 @ 66.0¢
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?Geopolitics
No$8 @ 88.0¢
Flávio Bolsonaro participates in debate before first round?Politics
Yes$8 @ 95.0¢
Will Manuela D'Ávila win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?Politics
No$8 @ 95.0¢
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $130B by September 30?Other
No$8 @ 93.0¢
Will Celina Leão win the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial election?Politics
Yes$8 @ 91.0¢
Will Marina Silva win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?Politics
No$8 @ 91.0¢
Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$8 @ 89.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?Politics
No$8 @ 89.0¢
Will Rui Costa win the most votes in the 2026 Bahia Senate election?Politics
Yes$8 @ 86.0¢
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$8 @ 86.0¢
Will Leila do Vôlei win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?Politics
No$8 @ 90.0¢
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Politics
Yes$8 @ 88.0¢
National Cricket League, Women: Western Australia vs TasmaniaSports
Tasmania$8 @ 88.0¢
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?Politics
Yes$8 @ 88.2¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 5 and October 11, 2026?Tech
No$8 @ 86.2¢
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$8 @ 84.0¢
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Politics
No$8 @ 83.0¢
Will any other model be the best AI model on October 5, 2026?Tech
Yes$8 @ 95.0¢
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 9, 2026?Tech
No$7 @ 94.6¢
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-10-01?Sports
Yes$7 @ 61.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on October 1?Science
No$5 @ 80.0¢