← Smart money
0x3c8a…b45a
SharpEdge
+12.0pp
ROI
+14%
Win rate
100% @ 88.0¢
Brier
0.015
Resolved
535
Avg size
$824
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 100% (8/8) | +14% | 8 |
| Politics | 100% (1/1) | +14% | 1 |
- Other8 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (8/8)
- ROI
- +14%
- Politics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +14%
Track record
100% hit · 9/9| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? | No | $10.0k | 88.9¢ | Won |
| Will Russia capture Pokrovsk before November? | No | $5.0k | 56.6¢ | Won |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? | No | $28.3k | 89.0¢ | Won |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | $10.0k | 88.0¢ | Won |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | $39.9k | 88.0¢ | Won |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | No | $93.0k | 88.5¢ | Won |
| Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? | No | $247.1k | 88.2¢ | Won |
| Will a US ally get a nuke in 2025? | No | $2.6k | 88.0¢ | Won |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | No | $5.0k | 86.0¢ | Won |
- No$10.0k @ 88.9¢
- No$5.0k @ 56.6¢
- No$28.3k @ 89.0¢
- No$10.0k @ 88.0¢
- No$39.9k @ 88.0¢
- No$93.0k @ 88.5¢
- No$247.1k @ 88.2¢
- No$2.6k @ 88.0¢
- No$5.0k @ 86.0¢
Recent trades
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Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Politics | No | $180.1k | 87.3¢ |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Politics | No | $126.3k | 90.3¢ |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Politics | No | $87.7k | 87.5¢ |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | Geopolitics | No | $58.3k | 91.9¢ |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | Politics | No | $51.2k | 82.8¢ |
| Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | Politics | No | $24.8k | 88.2¢ |
| Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | Geopolitics | No | $2.0k | 96.8¢ |
- No$180.1k @ 87.3¢
- No$126.3k @ 90.3¢
- No$87.7k @ 87.5¢
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?GeopoliticsNo$58.3k @ 91.9¢
- No$51.2k @ 82.8¢
- No$24.8k @ 88.2¢
- Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?GeopoliticsNo$2.0k @ 96.8¢