0x3c76…d4ee

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x3c760e45728e0cb4b68c52980a070314b95fd4ee
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+16.5pp

ROI

+39%

Win rate

75% @ 59.0¢

Brier

0.188

Resolved

950

Avg size

$32

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	76% (153/201)	+42%	201
Politics	75% (21/28)	+10%	28
Tech	80% (4/5)	-36%	5
Science	75% (3/4)	+13%	4
Geopolitics	67% (2/3)	+5%	3
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other201 bets
Hit rate
76% (153/201)
ROI
+42%
Politics28 bets
Hit rate
75% (21/28)
ROI
+10%
Tech5 bets
Hit rate
80% (4/5)
ROI
-36%
Science4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+13%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+5%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

76% hit · 183/242

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the Australian hero donation campaign reach $1.7 million by Dec 15?	Yes	$35	87.0¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$63	89.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Kamala" during "60 Minutes" on November 2?	No	$36	61.3¢	Won
Will Trump attend the 2025 MLB World Series Finals?	No	$216	84.5¢	Won
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	No	$10	10.1¢	Lost
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	Yes	$57	38.0¢	Won
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?	No	$42	84.8¢	Won
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	Yes	$30	0.6¢	Lost
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31?	No	$27	88.3¢	Won
Will France strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$100	23.4¢	Lost
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	Yes	$11	26.8¢	Lost
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 4?	Yes	$10	11.0¢	Won
Will Mamdani say "Immigrant" during the next NYC Mayor's Office announcement?	No	$5	45.0¢	Won
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$24	3.9¢	Lost
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 14?	Yes	$297	67.7¢	Won
Will Condoleezza Rice attend Dick Cheney's funeral?	No	$287	67.8¢	Won
Will anyone say "Percent" 15+ times during the FED board meeting on October 24?	No	$36	80.0¢	Won
ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?	No	$42	83.0¢	Won
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?	No	$192	66.3¢	Lost
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	$143	86.2¢	Won
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$567	71.2¢	Won
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	$57	70.7¢	Won
Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during Small Business Summit?	Yes	$17	2.2¢	Lost
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on April 16?	No	$129	77.8¢	Won
Will there be at least 750 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$61	13.3¢	Lost
Will Belgium recognize Palestine in 2025?	No	$157	83.9¢	Won
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$318	51.0¢	Won
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?	No	$146	32.8¢	Lost
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?	Yes	$61	87.6¢	Won
James Comey in jail by June 30?	No	$41	63.0¢	Won
Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$22	85.6¢	Won
L.A. U-Haul attack perp charged with terrorism?	No	$46	74.6¢	Won
Will Trump veto a bill in 2025?	Yes	$283	71.2¢	Won
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - April 26?	Yes	$0	1.6¢	Lost
Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31?	No	$8	78.0¢	Won
'Tinder for kids' removed from App Store?	No	$210	78.3¢	Won
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" or "Obliterating" this week? (October 27 - November 2)	No	$8	84.0¢	Lost
Will an FBI top ten most wanted fugitive be captured by June 2026?	Yes	$4	89.3¢	Won
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?	No	$96	16.6¢	Won
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?	Yes	$348	73.2¢	Lost
Will anyone say "Money" during the FED board meeting on October 24?	No	$40	80.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 30, 2026?	Yes	$342	78.7¢	Won
Insurrection Act invoked by January 31?	Yes	$10	15.0¢	Lost
James Comey arrested by May 15?	Yes	$20	80.0¢	Won
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$9	46.8¢	Won
Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get between 40 and 50 million views on day 1?	No	$54	38.3¢	Lost
Will the US strike Syria next?	No	$261	34.5¢	Won
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?	Yes	$105	84.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump's tie be blue on May 4, 2026?	Yes	$18	82.0¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in December?	Yes	$130	79.5¢	Won

Will the Australian hero donation campaign reach $1.7 million by Dec 15?Won
Yes$35 @ 87.0¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$63 @ 89.0¢
Will Trump say "Kamala" during "60 Minutes" on November 2?Won
No$36 @ 61.3¢
Will Trump attend the 2025 MLB World Series Finals?Won
No$216 @ 84.5¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Lost
No$10 @ 10.1¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Won
Yes$57 @ 38.0¢
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?Won
No$42 @ 84.8¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Lost
Yes$30 @ 0.6¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31?Won
No$27 @ 88.3¢
Will France strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$100 @ 23.4¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?Lost
Yes$11 @ 26.8¢
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 4?Won
Yes$10 @ 11.0¢
Will Mamdani say "Immigrant" during the next NYC Mayor's Office announcement?Won
No$5 @ 45.0¢
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$24 @ 3.9¢
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 14?Won
Yes$297 @ 67.7¢
Will Condoleezza Rice attend Dick Cheney's funeral?Won
No$287 @ 67.8¢
Will anyone say "Percent" 15+ times during the FED board meeting on October 24?Won
No$36 @ 80.0¢
ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?Won
No$42 @ 83.0¢
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?Lost
No$192 @ 66.3¢
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Won
Yes$143 @ 86.2¢
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$567 @ 71.2¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Won
No$57 @ 70.7¢
Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during Small Business Summit?Lost
Yes$17 @ 2.2¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on April 16?Won
No$129 @ 77.8¢
Will there be at least 750 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$61 @ 13.3¢
Will Belgium recognize Palestine in 2025?Won
No$157 @ 83.9¢
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Won
Yes$318 @ 51.0¢
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? Lost
No$146 @ 32.8¢
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? Won
Yes$61 @ 87.6¢
James Comey in jail by June 30?Won
No$41 @ 63.0¢
Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$22 @ 85.6¢
L.A. U-Haul attack perp charged with terrorism?Won
No$46 @ 74.6¢
Will Trump veto a bill in 2025?Won
Yes$283 @ 71.2¢
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - April 26?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.6¢
Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31?Won
No$8 @ 78.0¢
'Tinder for kids' removed from App Store?Won
No$210 @ 78.3¢
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" or "Obliterating" this week? (October 27 - November 2)Lost
No$8 @ 84.0¢
Will an FBI top ten most wanted fugitive be captured by June 2026?Won
Yes$4 @ 89.3¢
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?Won
No$96 @ 16.6¢
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?Lost
Yes$348 @ 73.2¢
Will anyone say "Money" during the FED board meeting on October 24?Won
No$40 @ 80.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 30, 2026?Won
Yes$342 @ 78.7¢
Insurrection Act invoked by January 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 15.0¢
James Comey arrested by May 15?Won
Yes$20 @ 80.0¢
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$9 @ 46.8¢
Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get between 40 and 50 million views on day 1?Lost
No$54 @ 38.3¢
Will the US strike Syria next?Won
No$261 @ 34.5¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?Won
Yes$105 @ 84.0¢
Will Donald Trump's tie be blue on May 4, 2026?Won
Yes$18 @ 82.0¢
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in December?Won
Yes$130 @ 79.5¢

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