0x3c59…1766

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x3c593aeb73ebdadbc9ce76d4264a6a2af4011766
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+11.6pp

ROI

+17%

Win rate

51% @ 39.0¢

Brier

0.219

Resolved

5925

Avg size

$257

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	56% (197/349)	+37%	349
Politics	41% (55/133)	+31%	133
Geopolitics	42% (8/19)	-33%	19
Tech	57% (8/14)	+34%	14
Sports	67% (2/3)	+36%	3
Crypto	50% (1/2)	+102%	2
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other349 bets
Hit rate
56% (197/349)
ROI
+37%
Politics133 bets
Hit rate
41% (55/133)
ROI
+31%
Geopolitics19 bets
Hit rate
42% (8/19)
ROI
-33%
Tech14 bets
Hit rate
57% (8/14)
ROI
+34%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+36%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+102%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

52% hit · 271/521

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump say "Mental institution" in Corpus Christi on Friday?	Yes	$623	54.8¢	Lost
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$444	40.0¢	Lost
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$347	34.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	$59	61.0¢	Won
Will Vance say "Crazy" during his Rocky Mount visit?	Yes	$1	69.0¢	Won
Will Google say "DeepMind" or "Deep Mind" during earnings call?	No	$17	30.0¢	Lost
Will Google say "European Commission" during earnings call?	No	$426	60.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Oil" 15+ times during oil executive meetings on Friday?	Yes	$180	59.9¢	Won
Will "Louis Theroux: Inside The Manosphere" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?	No	$20	87.0¢	Won
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2?	No	$5	2.0¢	Lost
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?	Yes	$1.7k	25.6¢	Lost
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$2.1k	65.2¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$2.1k	14.5¢	Lost
Will "Skyscraper Live" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 27, 2026)	No	$354	28.7¢	Lost
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 6?	Yes	$180	4.6¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" at The Villages on May 1?	No	$266	48.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Epic Fury" during Miami address?	No	$366	46.9¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$58.3k	30.5¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	No	$222	20.0¢	Lost
Will "Run Away" be the top global Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)	Yes	$1.4k	19.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (December 29 - January 4)	No	$780	52.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (December 29 - January 4)	Yes	$273	83.6¢	Lost
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	$5.7k	36.7¢	Won
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?	No	$29	15.3¢	Lost
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?	Yes	$507	60.0¢	Won
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?	No	$6.7k	70.0¢	Lost
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?	No	$633	55.9¢	Won
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?	Yes	$13.1k	72.8¢	Won
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to the Nation?	No	$416	66.0¢	Won
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$18.0k	64.4¢	Won
Military action against Iran ends by April 9, 2026?	Yes	$239	71.7¢	Won
Will EA say "Mobile" during earnings call?	No	$2	60.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$3.3k	24.5¢	Lost
Will Pete Fry win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?	No	$68	40.6¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$529	11.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Congress" during Address to the Nation?	No	$209	55.6¢	Won
Will "Louis Theroux: Inside The Manosphere" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?	No	$3.2k	32.8¢	Lost
Will "Louis Theroux: Inside The Manosphere" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?	Yes	$1.4k	29.5¢	Won
Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?	Yes	$3.5k	55.3¢	Won
Will Trump say "Biden" 6+ times in Corpus Christi on Friday?	Yes	$66	60.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$8.3k	46.3¢	Won
Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9?	No	$1.5k	59.8¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	37.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Ballroom" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?	No	$101	42.0¢	Won
Will Bernie Sanders say "Trump" 15+ times during the Fighting Oligarchy rally?	No	$79	60.0¢	Lost
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?	No	$4.5k	14.2¢	Lost
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	$504	71.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	No	$1.0k	44.9¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	Yes	$4.6k	49.9¢	Lost
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$573	5.6¢	Won

Will Trump say "Mental institution" in Corpus Christi on Friday?Lost
Yes$623 @ 54.8¢
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$444 @ 40.0¢
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?Won
Yes$347 @ 34.0¢
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?Won
No$59 @ 61.0¢
Will Vance say "Crazy" during his Rocky Mount visit?Won
Yes$1 @ 69.0¢
Will Google say "DeepMind" or "Deep Mind" during earnings call?Lost
No$17 @ 30.0¢
Will Google say "European Commission" during earnings call?Won
No$426 @ 60.0¢
Will Trump say "Oil" 15+ times during oil executive meetings on Friday?Won
Yes$180 @ 59.9¢
Will "Louis Theroux: Inside The Manosphere" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?Won
No$20 @ 87.0¢
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2?Lost
No$5 @ 2.0¢
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?Lost
Yes$1.7k @ 25.6¢
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?Won
Yes$2.1k @ 65.2¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$2.1k @ 14.5¢
Will "Skyscraper Live" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 27, 2026)Lost
No$354 @ 28.7¢
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 6?Lost
Yes$180 @ 4.6¢
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" at The Villages on May 1?Won
No$266 @ 48.0¢
Will Trump say "Epic Fury" during Miami address?Lost
No$366 @ 46.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$58.3k @ 30.5¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Lost
No$222 @ 20.0¢
Will "Run Away" be the top global Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 19.5¢
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (December 29 - January 4)Won
No$780 @ 52.0¢
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (December 29 - January 4)Lost
Yes$273 @ 83.6¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Won
Yes$5.7k @ 36.7¢
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?Lost
No$29 @ 15.3¢
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?Won
Yes$507 @ 60.0¢
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?Lost
No$6.7k @ 70.0¢
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?Won
No$633 @ 55.9¢
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?Won
Yes$13.1k @ 72.8¢
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to the Nation?Won
No$416 @ 66.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
No$18.0k @ 64.4¢
Military action against Iran ends by April 9, 2026?Won
Yes$239 @ 71.7¢
Will EA say "Mobile" during earnings call?Won
No$2 @ 60.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$3.3k @ 24.5¢
Will Pete Fry win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?Lost
No$68 @ 40.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$529 @ 11.5¢
Will Trump say "Congress" during Address to the Nation?Won
No$209 @ 55.6¢
Will "Louis Theroux: Inside The Manosphere" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?Lost
No$3.2k @ 32.8¢
Will "Louis Theroux: Inside The Manosphere" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 29.5¢
Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Won
Yes$3.5k @ 55.3¢
Will Trump say "Biden" 6+ times in Corpus Christi on Friday?Won
Yes$66 @ 60.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$8.3k @ 46.3¢
Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9?Won
No$1.5k @ 59.8¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 37.0¢
Will Trump say "Ballroom" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?Won
No$101 @ 42.0¢
Will Bernie Sanders say "Trump" 15+ times during the Fighting Oligarchy rally?Lost
No$79 @ 60.0¢
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?Lost
No$4.5k @ 14.2¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Won
No$504 @ 71.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?Won
No$1.0k @ 44.9¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?Lost
Yes$4.6k @ 49.9¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$573 @ 5.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$17.9k	38.5¢
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-17?	—	Yes	$15.3k	69.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$12.5k	36.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$12.0k	23.4¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	—	Yes	$11.3k	56.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$11.2k	32.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$10.8k	19.3¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Playoffs	—	Team Liquid	$8.2k	37.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$7.9k	18.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$7.3k	32.9¢
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31?	—	Yes	$6.8k	26.2¢
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?	—	No	$6.6k	70.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5.2k	29.1¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Politics	No	$5.1k	73.9¢
Will Mikey Madison be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?	—	No	$4.5k	63.3¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31?	Politics	Yes	$4.4k	39.8¢
Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech?	Politics	No	$4.2k	36.7¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4.2k	25.6¢
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$4.1k	37.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	—	Yes	$4.1k	49.6¢
Will "Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)	—	Yes	$4.0k	56.4¢
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 28?	—	Yes	$3.7k	28.9¢
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Politics	Yes	$3.5k	18.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3.5k	9.8¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	—	Yes	$3.4k	43.8¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$3.2k	48.7¢
Will "Louis Theroux: Inside The Manosphere" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?	—	No	$3.2k	32.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$3.2k	74.7¢
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Politics	Yes	$2.8k	70.0¢
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?	Politics	Yes	$2.8k	10.6¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Politics
Yes$17.9k @ 38.5¢
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-17?—
Yes$15.3k @ 69.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$12.5k @ 36.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$12.0k @ 23.4¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?—
Yes$11.3k @ 56.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$11.2k @ 32.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?Geopolitics
Yes$10.8k @ 19.3¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Playoffs—
Team Liquid$8.2k @ 37.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?Politics
Yes$7.9k @ 18.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Politics
Yes$7.3k @ 32.9¢
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31?—
Yes$6.8k @ 26.2¢
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?—
No$6.6k @ 70.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Politics
Yes$5.2k @ 29.1¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?Politics
No$5.1k @ 73.9¢
Will Mikey Madison be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?—
No$4.5k @ 63.3¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31?Politics
Yes$4.4k @ 39.8¢
Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech?Politics
No$4.2k @ 36.7¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$4.2k @ 25.6¢
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?Politics
No$4.1k @ 37.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?—
Yes$4.1k @ 49.6¢
Will "Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)—
Yes$4.0k @ 56.4¢
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 28?—
Yes$3.7k @ 28.9¢
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?Politics
Yes$3.5k @ 18.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?Politics
Yes$3.5k @ 9.8¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?—
Yes$3.4k @ 43.8¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?Politics
No$3.2k @ 48.7¢
Will "Louis Theroux: Inside The Manosphere" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?—
No$3.2k @ 32.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$3.2k @ 74.7¢
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Politics
Yes$2.8k @ 70.0¢
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?Politics
Yes$2.8k @ 10.6¢