0x3c59…1766

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x3c593aeb73ebdadbc9ce76d4264a6a2af4011766
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+15.5pp

ROI

+28%

Win rate

53% @ 37.7¢

Brier

0.234

Resolved

5893

Avg size

$213

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	57% (176/309)	+40%	309
Politics	42% (30/72)	+37%	72
Geopolitics	44% (8/18)	-33%	18
Tech	25% (2/8)	-18%	8
Sports	50% (1/2)	-64%	2
Crypto	50% (1/2)	+102%	2

Other309 bets
Hit rate
57% (176/309)
ROI
+40%
Politics72 bets
Hit rate
42% (30/72)
ROI
+37%
Geopolitics18 bets
Hit rate
44% (8/18)
ROI
-33%
Tech8 bets
Hit rate
25% (2/8)
ROI
-18%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-64%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+102%

Track record

53% hit · 218/411

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump say "Mental institution" in Corpus Christi on Friday?	Yes	$623	54.8¢	Lost
Will Apple say "Siri" during earnings call?	No	$2	8.0¢	Lost
Will Vance say "Crazy" during his Rocky Mount visit?	Yes	$1	69.0¢	Won
Will Google say "DeepMind" or "Deep Mind" during earnings call?	No	$17	30.0¢	Lost
Will Google say "European Commission" during earnings call?	No	$426	60.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Oil" 15+ times during oil executive meetings on Friday?	Yes	$180	59.9¢	Won
Will "Louis Theroux: Inside The Manosphere" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?	No	$20	87.0¢	Won
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2?	No	$5	2.0¢	Lost
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?	Yes	$1.7k	25.6¢	Lost
Will KPop Demon Hunters be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?	Yes	$120	12.0¢	Lost
Will Andy Byron rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	Yes	$32	11.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$2.1k	14.5¢	Lost
Will "Skyscraper Live" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 27, 2026)	No	$354	28.7¢	Lost
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 6?	Yes	$180	4.6¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" at The Villages on May 1?	No	$266	48.0¢	Won
Will Joe Biden say "Obama" during his appearance at the Ben Nelson Gala on November 7?	Yes	$117	51.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Epic Fury" during Miami address?	No	$366	46.9¢	Lost
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 9, 2025)	No	$129	1.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$58.3k	30.5¢	Lost
Will "Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)	Yes	$4.8k	60.2¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	No	$222	20.0¢	Lost
Will "Run Away" be the top global Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)	Yes	$1.4k	19.5¢	Lost
Will GoWish - Your Digital Wishlist be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28?	Yes	$40	5.3¢	Lost
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (December 29 - January 4)	No	$780	52.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (December 29 - January 4)	Yes	$273	83.6¢	Lost
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?	No	$29	15.3¢	Lost
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?	Yes	$507	60.0¢	Won
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?	No	$6.7k	70.0¢	Lost
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?	No	$633	55.9¢	Won
Will Trump say "Tariff" 3+ times during Xi events on October 29?	No	$239	24.3¢	Won
Will Trump say "Farmer" during Xi events on October 29?	No	$60	47.0¢	Won
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?	Yes	$13.1k	72.8¢	Won
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to the Nation?	No	$416	66.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Biden" during call with Service Members on November 27?	Yes	$558	65.0¢	Won
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?	No	$140	14.0¢	Won
Military action against Iran ends by April 9, 2026?	Yes	$239	71.7¢	Won
Will EA say "Mobile" during earnings call?	No	$2	60.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$3.3k	24.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$529	11.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Congress" during Address to the Nation?	No	$209	55.6¢	Won
Will MrBeast say "Million" or "Billion" 7+ times at the NYT DealBook Summit?	No	$20	1.0¢	Lost
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?	No	$565	37.7¢	Lost
Will "Louis Theroux: Inside The Manosphere" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?	No	$3.2k	32.8¢	Lost
Will "Louis Theroux: Inside The Manosphere" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?	Yes	$1.4k	29.5¢	Won
Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?	Yes	$3.5k	55.3¢	Won
Will "Sean Combs: The Reckoning: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)	No	$9	70.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Biden" 6+ times in Corpus Christi on Friday?	Yes	$66	60.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$8.3k	46.3¢	Won
Will GoWish - Your Digital Wishlist be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Lost
Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9?	No	$1.5k	59.8¢	Won

Will Trump say "Mental institution" in Corpus Christi on Friday?Lost
Yes$623 @ 54.8¢
Will Apple say "Siri" during earnings call?Lost
No$2 @ 8.0¢
Will Vance say "Crazy" during his Rocky Mount visit?Won
Yes$1 @ 69.0¢
Will Google say "DeepMind" or "Deep Mind" during earnings call?Lost
No$17 @ 30.0¢
Will Google say "European Commission" during earnings call?Won
No$426 @ 60.0¢
Will Trump say "Oil" 15+ times during oil executive meetings on Friday?Won
Yes$180 @ 59.9¢
Will "Louis Theroux: Inside The Manosphere" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?Won
No$20 @ 87.0¢
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2?Lost
No$5 @ 2.0¢
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?Lost
Yes$1.7k @ 25.6¢
Will KPop Demon Hunters be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?Lost
Yes$120 @ 12.0¢
Will Andy Byron rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Lost
Yes$32 @ 11.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$2.1k @ 14.5¢
Will "Skyscraper Live" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 27, 2026)Lost
No$354 @ 28.7¢
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 6?Lost
Yes$180 @ 4.6¢
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" at The Villages on May 1?Won
No$266 @ 48.0¢
Will Joe Biden say "Obama" during his appearance at the Ben Nelson Gala on November 7?Won
Yes$117 @ 51.0¢
Will Trump say "Epic Fury" during Miami address?Lost
No$366 @ 46.9¢
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 9, 2025)Lost
No$129 @ 1.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$58.3k @ 30.5¢
Will "Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)Lost
Yes$4.8k @ 60.2¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Lost
No$222 @ 20.0¢
Will "Run Away" be the top global Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 19.5¢
Will GoWish - Your Digital Wishlist be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28?Lost
Yes$40 @ 5.3¢
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (December 29 - January 4)Won
No$780 @ 52.0¢
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (December 29 - January 4)Lost
Yes$273 @ 83.6¢
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?Lost
No$29 @ 15.3¢
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?Won
Yes$507 @ 60.0¢
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?Lost
No$6.7k @ 70.0¢
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?Won
No$633 @ 55.9¢
Will Trump say "Tariff" 3+ times during Xi events on October 29?Won
No$239 @ 24.3¢
Will Trump say "Farmer" during Xi events on October 29?Won
No$60 @ 47.0¢
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?Won
Yes$13.1k @ 72.8¢
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to the Nation?Won
No$416 @ 66.0¢
Will Trump say "Biden" during call with Service Members on November 27?Won
Yes$558 @ 65.0¢
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?Won
No$140 @ 14.0¢
Military action against Iran ends by April 9, 2026?Won
Yes$239 @ 71.7¢
Will EA say "Mobile" during earnings call?Won
No$2 @ 60.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$3.3k @ 24.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$529 @ 11.5¢
Will Trump say "Congress" during Address to the Nation?Won
No$209 @ 55.6¢
Will MrBeast say "Million" or "Billion" 7+ times at the NYT DealBook Summit?Lost
No$20 @ 1.0¢
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?Lost
No$565 @ 37.7¢
Will "Louis Theroux: Inside The Manosphere" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?Lost
No$3.2k @ 32.8¢
Will "Louis Theroux: Inside The Manosphere" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 29.5¢
Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Won
Yes$3.5k @ 55.3¢
Will "Sean Combs: The Reckoning: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)Won
No$9 @ 70.0¢
Will Trump say "Biden" 6+ times in Corpus Christi on Friday?Won
Yes$66 @ 60.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$8.3k @ 46.3¢
Will GoWish - Your Digital Wishlist be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9?Won
No$1.5k @ 59.8¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$37.8k	74.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$11.3k	32.3¢
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	No	$9.3k	36.6¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Politics	No	$5.2k	73.9¢
Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech?	Politics	No	$4.2k	36.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3.4k	40.1¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$3.2k	31.8¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	No	$3.0k	53.9¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2.9k	54.8¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Politics	No	$2.5k	63.1¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1.8k	40.4¢
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$1.5k	21.9¢
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1.3k	31.8¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	33.9¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Politics	No	$876	65.5¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$644	58.0¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?	Tech	No	$503	85.0¢
No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?	Economy	Hike 25 bps	$441	71.0¢
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$420	17.3¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$415	56.0¢
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	Tech	Yes	$275	62.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Politics	Yes	$176	71.5¢
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$80	19.8¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$54	6.6¢
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$18	0.8¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$37.8k @ 74.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$11.3k @ 32.3¢
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
No$9.3k @ 36.6¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?Politics
No$5.2k @ 73.9¢
Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech?Politics
No$4.2k @ 36.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$3.4k @ 40.1¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$3.2k @ 31.8¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
No$3.0k @ 53.9¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$2.9k @ 54.8¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?Politics
No$2.5k @ 63.1¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$1.8k @ 40.4¢
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?Politics
Yes$1.5k @ 21.9¢
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?Politics
Yes$1.3k @ 31.8¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 33.9¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics
No$876 @ 65.5¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$644 @ 58.0¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?Tech
No$503 @ 85.0¢
No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?Economy
Hike 25 bps$441 @ 71.0¢
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$420 @ 17.3¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$415 @ 56.0¢
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Tech
Yes$275 @ 62.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Politics
Yes$176 @ 71.5¢
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$80 @ 19.8¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$54 @ 6.6¢
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$18 @ 0.8¢