0x3b78…5ce6

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x3b78bd6c83648052207dfbac180d0e9271c25ce6
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.7pp

ROI

+25%

Win rate

62% @ 52.6¢

Brier

0.164

Resolved

520

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	54% (32/59)	+40%	59
Politics	67% (26/39)	+9%	39
Crypto	50% (3/6)	-1%	6
Geopolitics	75% (3/4)	+7%	4
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Economy	100% (1/1)	+3%	1

Other59 bets
Hit rate
54% (32/59)
ROI
+40%
Politics39 bets
Hit rate
67% (26/39)
ROI
+9%
Crypto6 bets
Hit rate
50% (3/6)
ROI
-1%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+7%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+3%

Track record

59% hit · 65/110

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?	No	$4	86.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$41	71.9¢	Won
Avalanche vs. Kings	Avalanche	$40	78.0¢	Won
Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25?	No	$23	69.3¢	Won
Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25?	Yes	$1	29.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Melania" or "First Lady" at The Villages on May 1?	No	$4	60.0¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	No	$3	12.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$58	39.8¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$2	14.1¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?	No	$7	73.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$46	78.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$1	23.0¢	Lost
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May?	No	$13	84.7¢	Won
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves	Nuggets	$10	17.5¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$69	76.2¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026??	No	$26	88.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	No	$53	70.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?	No	$12	42.8¢	Won
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	No	$61	69.3¢	Won
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	$6	70.0¢	Lost
Will anyone be kicked out of the WHCA Dinner?	Yes	$5	71.4¢	Won
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	$3	51.0¢	Won
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?	No	$23	74.9¢	Won
Will Trump say "Where is" 3+ times during NCAA National Champions remarks on April 21?	No	$2	30.1¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$8	83.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$6	26.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?	No	$40	86.0¢	Won
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 15, 2026?	No	$3	65.0¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	$39	44.6¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?	No	$4	85.0¢	Won
MegaETH FDV above $1.4B one day after launch?	No	$17	65.0¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	Yes	$2	48.4¢	Won
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	$2	7.3¢	Lost
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?	Yes	$2	24.3¢	Lost
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	$4	80.0¢	Won
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	$74	36.3¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	No	$9	46.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	Yes	$15	48.4¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?	No	$60	85.1¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Megyn Kelly by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$20	82.8¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	$62	62.5¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?	No	$30	65.0¢	Won
Will Solana reach $120 in May?	Yes	$2	6.8¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	No	$12	53.0¢	Won
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	Trail Blazers	$34	46.9¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	No	$3	51.0¢	Lost
Octra FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	$4	76.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	No	$20	75.8¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$7	6.8¢	Lost
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$8	80.0¢	Won

Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 86.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$41 @ 71.9¢
Avalanche vs. KingsWon
Avalanche$40 @ 78.0¢
Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25?Won
No$23 @ 69.3¢
Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25?Lost
Yes$1 @ 29.0¢
Will Trump say "Melania" or "First Lady" at The Villages on May 1?Lost
No$4 @ 60.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Lost
No$3 @ 12.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$58 @ 39.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 14.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Won
No$7 @ 73.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$46 @ 78.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$1 @ 23.0¢
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May?Won
No$13 @ 84.7¢
Nuggets vs. TimberwolvesLost
Nuggets$10 @ 17.5¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
No$69 @ 76.2¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026??Won
No$26 @ 88.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?Won
No$53 @ 70.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?Won
No$12 @ 42.8¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?Won
No$61 @ 69.3¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Lost
No$6 @ 70.0¢
Will anyone be kicked out of the WHCA Dinner?Won
Yes$5 @ 71.4¢
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?Won
Yes$3 @ 51.0¢
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?Won
No$23 @ 74.9¢
Will Trump say "Where is" 3+ times during NCAA National Champions remarks on April 21?Won
No$2 @ 30.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$8 @ 83.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$6 @ 26.9¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?Won
No$40 @ 86.0¢
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 65.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Won
Yes$39 @ 44.6¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?Won
No$4 @ 85.0¢
MegaETH FDV above $1.4B one day after launch?Lost
No$17 @ 65.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Won
Yes$2 @ 48.4¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Lost
Yes$2 @ 7.3¢
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?Lost
Yes$2 @ 24.3¢
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?Won
Yes$4 @ 80.0¢
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Won
Yes$74 @ 36.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Won
No$9 @ 46.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 48.4¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?Won
No$60 @ 85.1¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Megyn Kelly by April 30, 2026?Won
Yes$20 @ 82.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Won
No$62 @ 62.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?Won
No$30 @ 65.0¢
Will Solana reach $120 in May?Lost
Yes$2 @ 6.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?Won
No$12 @ 53.0¢
Spurs vs. Trail BlazersLost
Trail Blazers$34 @ 46.9¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Lost
No$3 @ 51.0¢
Octra FDV above $100M one day after launch?Won
No$4 @ 76.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?Won
No$20 @ 75.8¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 6.8¢
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$8 @ 80.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$62	68.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$59	79.4¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Politics	No	$55	67.7¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$55	48.2¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	No	$50	99.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$44	93.8¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$33	61.4¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$31	77.7¢
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?	Politics	No	$30	51.0¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Politics	No	$29	95.6¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$26	98.1¢
Will another candidate win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election?	Politics	No	$25	99.5¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$19	25.8¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$19	39.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$17	67.8¢
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?	Politics	Yes	$15	52.0¢
Will Amy Klobuchar win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Democratic primary election?	Politics	Yes	$14	97.2¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Politics	Yes	$11	35.5¢
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?	Politics	Yes	$11	79.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	Politics	Yes	$10	48.0¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$10	60.9¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10	40.0¢
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?	Politics	No	$8	71.0¢
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$7	63.0¢
Will South Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$7	59.0¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$7	19.0¢
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?	Politics	No	$5	20.6¢
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01?	Politics	Yes	$5	99.5¢
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01?	Politics	No	$5	99.0¢
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	Geopolitics	No	$5	98.4¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$62 @ 68.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$59 @ 79.4¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Politics
No$55 @ 67.7¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$55 @ 48.2¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
No$50 @ 99.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Politics
No$44 @ 93.8¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$33 @ 61.4¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?Politics
Yes$31 @ 77.7¢
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?Politics
No$30 @ 51.0¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Politics
No$29 @ 95.6¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026?Politics
No$26 @ 98.1¢
Will another candidate win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election?Politics
No$25 @ 99.5¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
Yes$19 @ 25.8¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$19 @ 39.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$17 @ 67.8¢
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?Politics
Yes$15 @ 52.0¢
Will Amy Klobuchar win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Democratic primary election?Politics
Yes$14 @ 97.2¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Politics
Yes$11 @ 35.5¢
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?Politics
Yes$11 @ 79.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Politics
Yes$10 @ 48.0¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?Politics
Yes$10 @ 60.9¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$10 @ 40.0¢
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?Politics
No$8 @ 71.0¢
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
Yes$7 @ 63.0¢
Will South Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Politics
Yes$7 @ 59.0¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Politics
No$7 @ 19.0¢
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Politics
No$5 @ 20.6¢
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01?Politics
Yes$5 @ 99.5¢
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01?Politics
No$5 @ 99.0¢
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?Geopolitics
No$5 @ 98.4¢