0x3b44…264e

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x3b4484b6c8cbfdaa383ba337ab3f0d71055e264e
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+11.4pp

ROI

+28%

Win rate

60% @ 48.6¢

Brier

0.192

Resolved

1265

Avg size

$548

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	60% (197/326)	+30%	326
Politics	47% (25/53)	+2%	53
Tech	100% (1/1)	+32%	1
Sports	100% (1/1)	+20%	1
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other326 bets
Hit rate
60% (197/326)
ROI
+30%
Politics53 bets
Hit rate
47% (25/53)
ROI
+2%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+32%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+20%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

59% hit · 224/382

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Sam Altman say "Trump" or "Election" on The Tonight Show on December 8?	No	$181	89.0¢	Won
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?	No	$483	48.6¢	Won
Will Trump say "Kamala" during "60 Minutes" on November 2?	No	$1.5k	26.8¢	Won
Will Trump say "Kamala" during "60 Minutes" on November 2?	Yes	$1.3k	62.4¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$7.3k	72.2¢	Won
Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? (October 27 - November 2)	No	$79	71.9¢	Won
TikTok sale announced by September 30?	Yes	$313	22.1¢	Lost
Will Mike Waltz be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?	Yes	$1	1.8¢	Lost
Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 2 and 4 seconds?	Yes	$68	58.6¢	Won
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?	Yes	$33	11.0¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	Yes	$252	2.9¢	Lost
Will EJ Antoni be confirmed as BLS Commissioner in 2025?	No	$4.1k	77.3¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?	No	$2.0k	67.8¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?	Yes	$300	19.3¢	Lost
Will Shayne say "Election" 3+ times during 60 Minutes?	Yes	$412	39.2¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Zohran Mamdani in November?	Yes	$1.5k	41.6¢	Won
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?	Yes	$61	25.3¢	Lost
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?	Yes	$88	70.3¢	Lost
Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025?	Yes	$3.8k	79.8¢	Won
Maduro leaves Venezuela by December 31?	Yes	$95	21.1¢	Lost
Will Trump's 2pm signing event not air?	No	$141	40.8¢	Lost
Will Trump's 2pm signing event not air?	Yes	$1.0k	50.5¢	Won
Will Joe Biden say "Obama" during his appearance at the Ben Nelson Gala on November 7?	Yes	$763	74.9¢	Won
Will Trump say "Thousand" or "Million" or "Billion" 8+ timesduring meeting with Netanyahu?	No	$463	55.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$1.1k	77.9¢	Lost
Will one person dissent the March Fed decision?	Yes	$122	41.2¢	Won
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?	Yes	$1.7k	46.5¢	Won
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	Yes	$1.3k	33.3¢	Lost
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 21?	Yes	$41	57.9¢	Won
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (December 29 - January 4)	Yes	$4.8k	53.1¢	Lost
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?	Yes	$98	7.4¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in September?	Yes	$402	59.4¢	Won
North Korea missile launch by January 31?	Yes	$286	49.5¢	Won
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$295	11.0¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 9 ET?	Yes	$16	28.5¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in September?	Yes	$498	86.3¢	Won
Will Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?	No	$26	31.9¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Hoax" during "60 Minutes" on November 2?	No	$394	84.4¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$143	12.8¢	Won
Japan prime minister Ishiba out by September 30?	Yes	$1.7k	66.9¢	Won
Will Trump say "Boeing" during C5+1 Summit on November 6?	No	$32	58.2¢	Won
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2025?	Yes	$549	62.0¢	Won
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?	No	$40	58.0¢	Won
Grokipedia released by October 31?	Yes	$138	8.9¢	Won
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in 2025?	Yes	$4.9k	73.9¢	Won
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by December 31?	Yes	$93	23.7¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" while addressing the nation on December 17?	No	$63	2.2¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?	Yes	$137	15.0¢	Won
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?	No	$7.6k	53.1¢	Lost
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?	Yes	$2.4k	34.6¢	Won

Will Sam Altman say "Trump" or "Election" on The Tonight Show on December 8?Won
No$181 @ 89.0¢
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Won
No$483 @ 48.6¢
Will Trump say "Kamala" during "60 Minutes" on November 2?Won
No$1.5k @ 26.8¢
Will Trump say "Kamala" during "60 Minutes" on November 2?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 62.4¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$7.3k @ 72.2¢
Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? (October 27 - November 2)Won
No$79 @ 71.9¢
TikTok sale announced by September 30?Lost
Yes$313 @ 22.1¢
Will Mike Waltz be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.8¢
Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 2 and 4 seconds?Won
Yes$68 @ 58.6¢
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?Lost
Yes$33 @ 11.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Lost
Yes$252 @ 2.9¢
Will EJ Antoni be confirmed as BLS Commissioner in 2025?Won
No$4.1k @ 77.3¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?Won
No$2.0k @ 67.8¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?Lost
Yes$300 @ 19.3¢
Will Shayne say "Election" 3+ times during 60 Minutes?Won
Yes$412 @ 39.2¢
Will Trump talk to Zohran Mamdani in November?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 41.6¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?Lost
Yes$61 @ 25.3¢
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?Lost
Yes$88 @ 70.3¢
Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025?Won
Yes$3.8k @ 79.8¢
Maduro leaves Venezuela by December 31?Lost
Yes$95 @ 21.1¢
Will Trump's 2pm signing event not air?Lost
No$141 @ 40.8¢
Will Trump's 2pm signing event not air?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 50.5¢
Will Joe Biden say "Obama" during his appearance at the Ben Nelson Gala on November 7?Won
Yes$763 @ 74.9¢
Will Trump say "Thousand" or "Million" or "Billion" 8+ timesduring meeting with Netanyahu?Won
No$463 @ 55.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 77.9¢
Will one person dissent the March Fed decision?Won
Yes$122 @ 41.2¢
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 46.5¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 33.3¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 21?Won
Yes$41 @ 57.9¢
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (December 29 - January 4)Lost
Yes$4.8k @ 53.1¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?Lost
Yes$98 @ 7.4¢
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in September?Won
Yes$402 @ 59.4¢
North Korea missile launch by January 31?Won
Yes$286 @ 49.5¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$295 @ 11.0¢
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 9 ET?Lost
Yes$16 @ 28.5¢
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in September?Won
Yes$498 @ 86.3¢
Will Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Lost
No$26 @ 31.9¢
Will Trump say "Hoax" during "60 Minutes" on November 2?Won
No$394 @ 84.4¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$143 @ 12.8¢
Japan prime minister Ishiba out by September 30?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 66.9¢
Will Trump say "Boeing" during C5+1 Summit on November 6?Won
No$32 @ 58.2¢
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2025?Won
Yes$549 @ 62.0¢
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?Won
No$40 @ 58.0¢
Grokipedia released by October 31?Won
Yes$138 @ 8.9¢
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in 2025?Won
Yes$4.9k @ 73.9¢
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by December 31? Lost
Yes$93 @ 23.7¢
Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" while addressing the nation on December 17?Won
No$63 @ 2.2¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?Won
Yes$137 @ 15.0¢
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?Lost
No$7.6k @ 53.1¢
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?Won
Yes$2.4k @ 34.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Politics	No	$443	34.0¢
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$125	53.5¢
Ramp IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$20	15.0¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$2	3.7¢

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics
No$443 @ 34.0¢
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31?Politics
Yes$125 @ 53.5¢
Ramp IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$20 @ 15.0¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027?Politics
Yes$2 @ 3.7¢