← Smart money
0x3b09…b884
SharpEdge
+23.3pp
ROI
+21%
Win rate
75% @ 51.7¢
Brier
0.111
Resolved
32
Avg size
$1
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 85% (11/13) | +39% | 13 |
| Politics | 50% (1/2) | -23% | 2 |
| Sports | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (1/1) | +0% | 1 |
| Crypto | 100% (1/1) | +1% | 1 |
- Other13 bets
- Hit rate
- 85% (11/13)
- ROI
- +39%
- Politics2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- -23%
- Sports1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +0%
- Crypto1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +1%
Track record
78% hit · 14/18- No$1 @ 35.0¢
- No$4 @ 76.3¢
- Yes$3 @ 14.6¢
- Pistons$4 @ 47.0¢
- Colby Thicknesse$1 @ 57.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 2.2¢
- Clippers$1 @ 52.9¢
- Gauge Young$1 @ 60.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 57.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 0.9¢
- No$3 @ 78.0¢
- Pistons$1 @ 51.0¢
- Suns$4 @ 79.5¢
- Robert Valentin$1 @ 60.0¢
- Wes Schultz$1 @ 45.0¢
- Steve Erceg$2 @ 66.0¢
- No$2 @ 99.1¢
- No$1 @ 99.9¢
Recent trades
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Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? | Politics | No | $4 | 98.2¢ |
| Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? | Sports | No | $3 | 99.1¢ |
| Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? | Politics | No | $1 | 90.0¢ |
| Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | Crypto | No | $1 | 95.0¢ |
| Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? | Politics | No | $1 | 99.2¢ |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Geopolitics | No | $1 | 99.7¢ |
| Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? | Geopolitics | No | $1 | 99.2¢ |
| Will Austin Reaves play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? | — | Yes | $1 | 99.2¢ |
- No$4 @ 98.2¢
- No$3 @ 99.1¢
- No$1 @ 90.0¢
- No$1 @ 95.0¢
- No$1 @ 99.2¢
- No$1 @ 99.7¢
- Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? GeopoliticsNo$1 @ 99.2¢
- Yes$1 @ 99.2¢