0x3acc…06a3

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x3acce6b28bca8bcb72d4083959383afa68fd06a3
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.3pp

ROI

+19%

Win rate

53% @ 44.0¢

Brier

0.047

Resolved

124

Avg size

$40

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	86% (18/21)	+23%	21
Politics	25% (2/8)	-54%	8
Tech	50% (1/2)	-1%	2
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+16%	1

Other21 bets
Hit rate
86% (18/21)
ROI
+23%
Politics8 bets
Hit rate
25% (2/8)
ROI
-54%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-1%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+16%

Track record

67% hit · 22/33

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$131	87.2¢	Lost
Was Trump hacked?	Yes	$78	0.5¢	Lost
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	No	$172	86.0¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$36	78.5¢	Won
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?	Yes	$67	84.0¢	Won
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?	Yes	$3	0.3¢	Lost
Solana above $200 on November 15?	Yes	$304	89.4¢	Won
Israel announces ceasefire by January 16?	No	$156	0.6¢	Lost
Will Solana hit $225 by January 31, 2025?	Yes	$380	63.3¢	Won
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025?	Yes	$623	72.0¢	Won
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?	Yes	$12	2.5¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	$25	12.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$170	88.0¢	Won
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November?	No	$155	86.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	$34	74.9¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	$65	65.0¢	Won
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	$162	81.0¢	Won
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?	No	$148	84.5¢	Won
Will DOGE hit 69¢ by Inauguration Day?	No	$100	68.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	Yes	$203	67.7¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	$178	89.0¢	Won
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	No	$86	86.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?	No	$260	71.6¢	Lost
Russia claims responsibility for downing Azerbaijan plane?	No	$194	88.9¢	Won
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	No	$259	88.3¢	Won
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$3	0.1¢	Lost
Will Solana hit $250 by January 31, 2025?	Yes	$150	36.0¢	Won
Samsun: Takuya Kumasaka vs Florent Bax	Florent Bax	$110	67.6¢	Won
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?	Yes	$12	4.1¢	Lost
Litecoin ETF approved by July 31?	No	$100	40.2¢	Won
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?	Yes	$8	1.1¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Yes	$182	61.9¢	Won
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by March 31?	No	$500	88.0¢	Won

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$131 @ 87.2¢
Was Trump hacked?Lost
Yes$78 @ 0.5¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Won
No$172 @ 86.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$36 @ 78.5¢
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?Won
Yes$67 @ 84.0¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.3¢
Solana above $200 on November 15?Won
Yes$304 @ 89.4¢
Israel announces ceasefire by January 16?Lost
No$156 @ 0.6¢
Will Solana hit $225 by January 31, 2025?Won
Yes$380 @ 63.3¢
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025?Won
Yes$623 @ 72.0¢
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?Lost
Yes$12 @ 2.5¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Lost
No$25 @ 12.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Won
Yes$170 @ 88.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November?Won
No$155 @ 86.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Won
Yes$34 @ 74.9¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Won
No$65 @ 65.0¢
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?Won
Yes$162 @ 81.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?Won
No$148 @ 84.5¢
Will DOGE hit 69¢ by Inauguration Day?Won
No$100 @ 68.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?Won
Yes$203 @ 67.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?Won
No$178 @ 89.0¢
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Lost
No$86 @ 86.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?Lost
No$260 @ 71.6¢
Russia claims responsibility for downing Azerbaijan plane?Won
No$194 @ 88.9¢
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?Won
No$259 @ 88.3¢
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
No$3 @ 0.1¢
Will Solana hit $250 by January 31, 2025?Won
Yes$150 @ 36.0¢
Samsun: Takuya Kumasaka vs Florent BaxWon
Florent Bax$110 @ 67.6¢
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?Lost
Yes$12 @ 4.1¢
Litecoin ETF approved by July 31?Won
No$100 @ 40.2¢
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?Lost
Yes$8 @ 1.1¢
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Won
Yes$182 @ 61.9¢
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by March 31?Won
No$500 @ 88.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$294	97.9¢
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$191	95.4¢
Iran leadership change by November 30?	Politics	No	$188	94.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December?	Other	No	$178	98.8¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$131	87.2¢
Iran leadership change by October 31?	Politics	No	$98	97.8¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$16	31.9¢
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Science	Yes	$2	15.0¢

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics
No$294 @ 97.9¢
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$191 @ 95.4¢
Iran leadership change by November 30?Politics
No$188 @ 94.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December?Other
No$178 @ 98.8¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$131 @ 87.2¢
Iran leadership change by October 31?Politics
No$98 @ 97.8¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$16 @ 31.9¢
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Science
Yes$2 @ 15.0¢