0x3a59…c2b6

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x3a595f446970c729af8e10224ec865d5de30c2b6
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.5pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

52% @ 47.6¢

Brier

0.133

Resolved

1203

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	60% (238/395)	+9%	395
Culture	56% (10/18)	+14%	18
Science	67% (4/6)	+19%	6
Sports	25% (1/4)	-16%	4
Politics	67% (2/3)	-17%	3
Geopolitics	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Tech	100% (2/2)	+30%	2

Other395 bets
Hit rate
60% (238/395)
ROI
+9%
Culture18 bets
Hit rate
56% (10/18)
ROI
+14%
Science6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
+19%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-16%
Politics3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-17%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+30%

Track record

60% hit · 257/431

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will there be at least 3500+ measles cases in the U.S. by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$167	85.5¢	Won
Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #1 song this week?	Yes	$44	98.3¢	Won
Will "Bass Persuades - Miley Cyrus" be the #1 US song this week?	No	$5	99.0¢	Won
Will "Nicole Kidman - ADÉLA" be the #2 song this week?	No	$4	21.3¢	Lost
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 US song this week?	Yes	$67	88.3¢	Won
Will "Earrings - Malcolm Todd" be the #2 song this week?	Yes	$10	54.0¢	Lost
Will "Ain't in LA - ADELA" be the #2 song this week?	Yes	$3	8.0¢	Lost
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #2 US song this week?	No	$23	91.1¢	Won
Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #2 US song this week?	Yes	$1	4.0¢	Lost
Will "Earrings - Malcolm Todd" be the #2 US song this week?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will "The Investigation of Lucy Letby" be the top global Netflix movie this week?	No	$1	25.0¢	Won
Will The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift be the #1 song on Spotify this week?	Yes	$45	82.6¢	Won
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?	No	$21	71.0¢	Won
Will "Stateside + Zara Larsson - PinkPantheress, Zara Larsson" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?	Yes	$119	50.5¢	Lost
Will "The Rip" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (February 3)	No	$5	65.3¢	Won
Will there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?	No	$3	8.9¢	Lost
Will there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$19	72.0¢	Won
Will "My Secret Santa" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 16, 2025)	Yes	$11	57.0¢	Won
Will "Billie Jean - Michael Jackson" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?	Yes	$2	30.1¢	Lost
Will Trump's approval rating hit 43% before August?	No	$53	79.1¢	Won
Will Trump's approval rating hit 43% before August?	Yes	$17	13.9¢	Lost
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 15 be between 85 and 90?	Yes	$10	48.0¢	Won
Will Drake have a #1 hit in June?	No	$10	84.0¢	Won
Will Andy Byron rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	Yes	$8	12.9¢	Lost
Will "Jingle Bell Heist" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December 23, 2025)	Yes	$4	17.8¢	Lost
Will "Wake Up Dead Man" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December 16, 2025)	No	$2	7.0¢	Lost
Will Dharmendra be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?	Yes	$22	27.2¢	Lost
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 17 be between 80 and 85?	Yes	$10	20.0¢	Lost
Will "Wake Up Dead Man" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 23, 2025)	No	$4	82.0¢	Won
Will "Rio 2" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 23, 2025)	No	$0	85.0¢	Won
Will "Jingle Bell Heist" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 9, 2025)	No	$77	27.1¢	Lost
Will Sydney Sweeney rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 2025?	No	$33	25.8¢	Won
Will Netherlands participate in Eurovision 2026?	No	$4	31.0¢	Won
Will "ONE PIECE: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week?	No	$2	2.5¢	Lost
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$0	8.0¢	Lost
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$3	58.0¢	Won
Will End of Beginning - Djo be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?	No	$46	84.5¢	Won
Will End of Beginning - Djo be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?	Yes	$6	22.6¢	Lost
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	Yes	$14	56.0¢	Lost
Will "How to Get to Heaven from Belfast" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	No	$4	77.0¢	Won
Will "Evil Influencer: The Jodi Hildebrandt Story" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)	No	$3	3.8¢	Lost
Will The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift be the #1 song on Spotify this week?	Yes	$10	36.7¢	Won
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	$1	11.2¢	Lost
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$42	58.7¢	Won
Will "Run Away" be the top global Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)	No	$4	30.0¢	Won
Will "Run Away" be the top global Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)	Yes	$2	41.0¢	Lost
Will "The Addams Family" be the top global Netflix movie this week?	Yes	$7	70.0¢	Lost
Will Trump name "Viktor" or "Orbán" in April?	Yes	$8	80.0¢	Won
Will there be at least 750 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	6.0¢	Lost
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?	No	$43	87.0¢	Won

Will there be at least 3500+ measles cases in the U.S. by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$167 @ 85.5¢
Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #1 song this week?Won
Yes$44 @ 98.3¢
Will "Bass Persuades - Miley Cyrus" be the #1 US song this week?Won
No$5 @ 99.0¢
Will "Nicole Kidman - ADÉLA" be the #2 song this week?Lost
No$4 @ 21.3¢
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 US song this week?Won
Yes$67 @ 88.3¢
Will "Earrings - Malcolm Todd" be the #2 song this week?Lost
Yes$10 @ 54.0¢
Will "Ain't in LA - ADELA" be the #2 song this week?Lost
Yes$3 @ 8.0¢
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #2 US song this week?Won
No$23 @ 91.1¢
Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #2 US song this week?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.0¢
Will "Earrings - Malcolm Todd" be the #2 US song this week?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will "The Investigation of Lucy Letby" be the top global Netflix movie this week?Won
No$1 @ 25.0¢
Will The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift be the #1 song on Spotify this week?Won
Yes$45 @ 82.6¢
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?Won
No$21 @ 71.0¢
Will "Stateside + Zara Larsson - PinkPantheress, Zara Larsson" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?Lost
Yes$119 @ 50.5¢
Will "The Rip" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (February 3)Won
No$5 @ 65.3¢
Will there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 8.9¢
Will there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$19 @ 72.0¢
Will "My Secret Santa" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 16, 2025)Won
Yes$11 @ 57.0¢
Will "Billie Jean - Michael Jackson" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?Lost
Yes$2 @ 30.1¢
Will Trump's approval rating hit 43% before August?Won
No$53 @ 79.1¢
Will Trump's approval rating hit 43% before August?Lost
Yes$17 @ 13.9¢
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 15 be between 85 and 90?Won
Yes$10 @ 48.0¢
Will Drake have a #1 hit in June?Won
No$10 @ 84.0¢
Will Andy Byron rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Lost
Yes$8 @ 12.9¢
Will "Jingle Bell Heist" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December 23, 2025)Lost
Yes$4 @ 17.8¢
Will "Wake Up Dead Man" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December 16, 2025)Lost
No$2 @ 7.0¢
Will Dharmendra be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?Lost
Yes$22 @ 27.2¢
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 17 be between 80 and 85?Lost
Yes$10 @ 20.0¢
Will "Wake Up Dead Man" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 23, 2025)Won
No$4 @ 82.0¢
Will "Rio 2" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 23, 2025)Won
No$0 @ 85.0¢
Will "Jingle Bell Heist" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 9, 2025)Lost
No$77 @ 27.1¢
Will Sydney Sweeney rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 2025?Won
No$33 @ 25.8¢
Will Netherlands participate in Eurovision 2026?Won
No$4 @ 31.0¢
Will "ONE PIECE: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week?Lost
No$2 @ 2.5¢
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$0 @ 8.0¢
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$3 @ 58.0¢
Will End of Beginning - Djo be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?Won
No$46 @ 84.5¢
Will End of Beginning - Djo be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?Lost
Yes$6 @ 22.6¢
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Lost
Yes$14 @ 56.0¢
Will "How to Get to Heaven from Belfast" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?Won
No$4 @ 77.0¢
Will "Evil Influencer: The Jodi Hildebrandt Story" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)Lost
No$3 @ 3.8¢
Will The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift be the #1 song on Spotify this week?Won
Yes$10 @ 36.7¢
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 11.2¢
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$42 @ 58.7¢
Will "Run Away" be the top global Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)Won
No$4 @ 30.0¢
Will "Run Away" be the top global Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)Lost
Yes$2 @ 41.0¢
Will "The Addams Family" be the top global Netflix movie this week?Lost
Yes$7 @ 70.0¢
Will Trump name "Viktor" or "Orbán" in April?Won
Yes$8 @ 80.0¢
Will there be at least 750 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?Won
No$43 @ 87.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$173	86.6¢
Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	Yes	$58	58.0¢
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	Yes	$51	66.7¢
Will there be at least 4000+ measles cases in the U.S. by September 30, 2026?	Science	No	$50	99.4¢
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	Yes	$31	56.5¢
Will there be at least 3700+ measles cases in the U.S. by September 30, 2026?	Science	No	$28	71.0¢
Will there be at least 3800+ measles cases in the U.S. by September 30, 2026?	Science	Yes	$14	15.9¢
Will there be at least 4750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	Yes	$5	83.0¢
Will Billie Eilish be the third most streamed artist for 2026?	Culture	No	$2	90.8¢
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$1	0.7¢

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$173 @ 86.6¢
Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
Yes$58 @ 58.0¢
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
Yes$51 @ 66.7¢
Will there be at least 4000+ measles cases in the U.S. by September 30, 2026?Science
No$50 @ 99.4¢
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
Yes$31 @ 56.5¢
Will there be at least 3700+ measles cases in the U.S. by September 30, 2026?Science
No$28 @ 71.0¢
Will there be at least 3800+ measles cases in the U.S. by September 30, 2026?Science
Yes$14 @ 15.9¢
Will there be at least 4750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
Yes$5 @ 83.0¢
Will Billie Eilish be the third most streamed artist for 2026?Culture
No$2 @ 90.8¢
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$1 @ 0.7¢