0x3a32…562e

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x3a32e6f8f95268d5afcdda093fc6c17445ad562e
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.7pp

ROI

+12%

Win rate

75% @ 66.9¢

Brier

0.190

Resolved

208

Avg size

$77

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	55% (17/31)	-19%	31
Politics	100% (14/14)	+42%	14
Geopolitics	88% (7/8)	+25%	8
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+80%	1

Other31 bets
Hit rate
55% (17/31)
ROI
-19%
Politics14 bets
Hit rate
100% (14/14)
ROI
+42%
Geopolitics8 bets
Hit rate
88% (7/8)
ROI
+25%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+80%

Track record

71% hit · 39/55

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	$85	85.0¢	Won
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	$20	19.2¢	Lost
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	No	$50	77.5¢	Won
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	$70	70.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$50	75.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	No	$320	72.9¢	Lost
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	No	$538	81.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$280	84.6¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$250	79.8¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	Yes	$50	27.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$200	59.7¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$1.8k	80.6¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$333	55.5¢	Won
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	No	$342	76.7¢	Won
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	$4.3k	81.3¢	Won
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$100	71.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "The State of the Union is strong" during the 2026 State of the Union address?	Yes	$10	10.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$50	64.0¢	Won
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	$80	80.0¢	Won
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	No	$5	8.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$50	54.0¢	Won
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	$200	86.0¢	Won
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	$80	2.5¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk attend Trump’s Xi summit?	Yes	$50	88.8¢	Won
Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading?	Yes	$48	16.0¢	Lost
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	No	$210	49.1¢	Lost
Masoud Pezeshkian out by April 30?	No	$85	85.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$100	45.0¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$1.4k	71.5¢	Won
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?	No	$238	66.7¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	No	$190	63.7¢	Lost
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	$165	64.6¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$220	40.6¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	$224	77.8¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	$50	43.0¢	Won
Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	$165	82.5¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	$130	78.0¢	Won
Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	$707	66.5¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13?	No	$261	67.7¢	Won
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	$550	50.9¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?	Yes	$100	74.0¢	Lost
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	$20	80.8¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	$100	67.2¢	Won
Will Iran Play in the World Cup?	Yes	$151	80.6¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	$441	73.4¢	Won
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	$50	31.0¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	No	$300	72.1¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	$366	81.9¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$30	15.0¢	Won

Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026?Won
No$85 @ 85.0¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Lost
Yes$20 @ 19.2¢
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?Won
No$50 @ 77.5¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
No$70 @ 70.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$50 @ 75.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Lost
No$320 @ 72.9¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Won
No$538 @ 81.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$280 @ 84.6¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$250 @ 79.8¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Lost
Yes$50 @ 27.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$200 @ 59.7¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$1.8k @ 80.6¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$333 @ 55.5¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?Won
No$342 @ 76.7¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Won
No$4.3k @ 81.3¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$100 @ 71.0¢
Will Trump say "The State of the Union is strong" during the 2026 State of the Union address?Lost
Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
Yes$50 @ 64.0¢
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by May 31, 2026?Won
No$80 @ 80.0¢
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 8.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$50 @ 54.0¢
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Won
Yes$200 @ 86.0¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$80 @ 2.5¢
Will Elon Musk attend Trump’s Xi summit?Won
Yes$50 @ 88.8¢
Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading?Lost
Yes$48 @ 16.0¢
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?Lost
No$210 @ 49.1¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by April 30?Won
No$85 @ 85.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$100 @ 45.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
No$1.4k @ 71.5¢
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?Won
No$238 @ 66.7¢
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Lost
No$190 @ 63.7¢
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Won
Yes$165 @ 64.6¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$220 @ 40.6¢
Will Trump visit China by June 30?Won
Yes$224 @ 77.8¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Won
Yes$50 @ 43.0¢
Iran leadership change by June 30?Won
No$165 @ 82.5¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Won
No$130 @ 78.0¢
Iran leadership change by April 30?Won
No$707 @ 66.5¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13?Won
No$261 @ 67.7¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Won
Yes$550 @ 50.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$100 @ 74.0¢
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Won
Yes$20 @ 80.8¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?Won
Yes$100 @ 67.2¢
Will Iran Play in the World Cup?Won
Yes$151 @ 80.6¢
Will Trump visit China by May 31?Won
Yes$441 @ 73.4¢
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
No$50 @ 31.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Lost
No$300 @ 72.1¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?Won
No$366 @ 81.9¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$30 @ 15.0¢

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