0x39d0…4fe8

Specialization by sphere

• Politics88 bets

  Hit rate

  59% (52/88)

  ROI

  +20%

• Geopolitics39 bets

  Hit rate

  69% (27/39)

  ROI

  +6%

• Other35 bets

  Hit rate

  43% (15/35)

  ROI

  -17%

• Sports6 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (3/6)

  ROI

  -50%

• Crypto4 bets

  Hit rate

  75% (3/4)

  ROI

  +121%

• Tech3 bets

  Hit rate

  33% (1/3)

  ROI

  +119%

• Economy1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +46%

• NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Lost
  No$26 @ 32.5¢
• Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
  No$1.7k @ 49.7¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
  Yes$75 @ 18.6¢
• Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
  Yes$1.4k @ 9.4¢
• Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?Won
  No$36 @ 72.7¢
• Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
  No$266 @ 75.9¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$10.8k @ 22.8¢
• Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
  Yes$295 @ 34.0¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?Won
  Yes$38 @ 75.0¢
• Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Lost
  No$1.0k @ 75.3¢
• Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
  No$3.7k @ 65.8¢
• Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Won
  No$638 @ 61.8¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
  No$165 @ 40.7¢
• Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
  No$48 @ 78.0¢
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Won
  No$170 @ 85.0¢
• Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Won
  No$48 @ 88.4¢
• Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
  Yes$79 @ 2.6¢
• Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Lost
  No$98 @ 40.8¢
• Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$2 @ 49.0¢
• US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Won
  No$1.6k @ 34.0¢
• Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
  Yes$112 @ 25.7¢
• Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?Won
  No$1.4k @ 77.3¢
• Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
  Yes$96 @ 32.1¢
• Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
  No$3.2k @ 84.4¢
• US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Lost
  No$181 @ 60.3¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Won
  Yes$805 @ 67.2¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?Won
  Yes$39 @ 71.9¢
• Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?Won
  Yes$370 @ 50.0¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?Won
  Yes$460 @ 76.7¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
  No$4.6k @ 74.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
  Yes$6.1k @ 35.1¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?Lost
  No$1 @ 8.0¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?Won
  Yes$122 @ 81.0¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Won
  No$446 @ 46.8¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Lost
  Yes$40 @ 35.8¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
  Yes$2.3k @ 27.5¢
• MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$1.6k @ 21.2¢
• MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$204 @ 11.3¢
• Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
  No$5.7k @ 72.7¢
• Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?Lost
  No$31 @ 34.0¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$252 @ 65.3¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Lost
  Yes$6.8k @ 29.8¢
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
  Yes$1.5k @ 50.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?Lost
  Yes$108 @ 10.0¢
• Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?Lost
  Yes$103 @ 49.3¢
• Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
  No$2.9k @ 50.8¢
• Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Won
  Yes$181 @ 82.5¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$113 @ 51.3¢
• Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026Lost
  No$38 @ 38.2¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Won
  No$7.4k @ 77.4¢

Current positions

• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$16.9k @ 70.6¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
  Yes$4.2k @ 61.8¢
• Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  No$3.1k @ 70.8¢
• Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
  Yes$2.4k @ 87.4¢
• Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
  No$1.4k @ 67.5¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$1.4k @ 71.3¢
• NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$689 @ 70.4¢
• Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Politics
  Yes$448 @ 50.4¢
• Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
  Yes$382 @ 63.7¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
  No$276 @ 69.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Politics
  Yes$197 @ 37.8¢
• Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
  Yes$192 @ 16.9¢
• Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$143 @ 71.5¢