0x39ca…7605

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x39cab3872b624ceebcc37666f2b08f4609d17605
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.2pp

ROI

+7%

Win rate

45% @ 39.9¢

Brier

0.197

Resolved

672

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (60/121)	+17%	121
Politics	35% (31/89)	+31%	89
Sports	47% (34/72)	-19%	72
Geopolitics	30% (9/30)	-26%	30
Tech	40% (2/5)	-16%	5
Culture	100% (2/2)	+19%	2
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other121 bets
Hit rate
50% (60/121)
ROI
+17%
Politics89 bets
Hit rate
35% (31/89)
ROI
+31%
Sports72 bets
Hit rate
47% (34/72)
ROI
-19%
Geopolitics30 bets
Hit rate
30% (9/30)
ROI
-26%
Tech5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
-16%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+19%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

43% hit · 138/320

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Plovdiv 4: Adrian Andreev vs Saba Purtseladze	Adrian Andreev	$6	78.0¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$8	47.9¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$3	12.8¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	No	$5	22.6¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$2	33.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$10	20.4¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	Yes	$5	6.3¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	No	$2	17.0¢	Lost
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	Yes	$1	15.0¢	Lost
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 1 Winner	Galions	$2	84.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Monte	$1	21.0¢	Lost
Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	$2	28.0¢	Lost
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 68m?	Yes	$23	35.3¢	Won
Singapore Open, Qualification: Jiaqi Wang vs Anastasia Kulikova	Anastasia Kulikova	$10	57.0¢	Won
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$2	70.0¢	Won
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	$11	31.5¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$1	19.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	No	$7	38.8¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	Yes	$4	16.0¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$17	20.2¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$4	21.6¢	Won
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?	Yes	$3	10.4¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Yes	$3	51.0¢	Lost
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?	No	$5	9.0¢	Lost
Tiburon: Michael Zheng vs Darwin Blanch	Darwin Blanch	$8	68.6¢	Won
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	MOUZ	$1	47.0¢	Lost
Singapore Open, Qualification: Aoi Ito vs Sofya Lansere	Aoi Ito	$37	70.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$3	25.6¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$2	43.0¢	Lost
Spread: Croatia (-1.5)	Croatia	$31	44.0¢	Lost
Spread: France (-1.5)	France	$2	59.0¢	Lost
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 22m?	Yes	$11	27.6¢	Lost
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?	Yes	$1	33.9¢	Lost
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	13.9¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$5	7.3¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	FURIA	$2	41.0¢	Lost
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs	Dplus KIA Challengers	$2	40.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	Yes	$4	4.7¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Legacy	$4	38.7¢	Lost
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by July 31?	Yes	$1	40.0¢	Lost
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner	BOMBA Team	$1	19.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Natus Vincere	$3	45.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	Yes	$37	19.4¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	$8	8.6¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	84.8¢	Won
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner	WLGaming Esports	$1	37.0¢	Won
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	Yes	$4	26.0¢	Lost
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$7	40.8¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$7	61.5¢	Won
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026	No	$2	88.8¢	Won

Plovdiv 4: Adrian Andreev vs Saba PurtseladzeWon
Adrian Andreev$6 @ 78.0¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$8 @ 47.9¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 12.8¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 22.6¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$2 @ 33.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$10 @ 20.4¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 6.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 17.0¢
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 15.0¢
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 1 WinnerWon
Galions$2 @ 84.0¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3Lost
Monte$1 @ 21.0¢
Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 28.0¢
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 68m?Won
Yes$23 @ 35.3¢
Singapore Open, Qualification: Jiaqi Wang vs Anastasia KulikovaWon
Anastasia Kulikova$10 @ 57.0¢
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$2 @ 70.0¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$11 @ 31.5¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 19.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Lost
No$7 @ 38.8¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Won
Yes$4 @ 16.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$17 @ 20.2¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$4 @ 21.6¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?Lost
Yes$3 @ 10.4¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 51.0¢
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?Lost
No$5 @ 9.0¢
Tiburon: Michael Zheng vs Darwin BlanchWon
Darwin Blanch$8 @ 68.6¢
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3Lost
MOUZ$1 @ 47.0¢
Singapore Open, Qualification: Aoi Ito vs Sofya LansereWon
Aoi Ito$37 @ 70.0¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 25.6¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
No$2 @ 43.0¢
Spread: Croatia (-1.5)Lost
Croatia$31 @ 44.0¢
Spread: France (-1.5)Lost
France$2 @ 59.0¢
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 22m?Lost
Yes$11 @ 27.6¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?Lost
Yes$1 @ 33.9¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 13.9¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 7.3¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major PlayoffsLost
FURIA$2 @ 41.0¢
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters PlayoffsWon
Dplus KIA Challengers$2 @ 40.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Lost
Yes$4 @ 4.7¢
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3Lost
Legacy$4 @ 38.7¢
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by July 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 40.0¢
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 WinnerLost
BOMBA Team$1 @ 19.0¢
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3Won
Natus Vincere$3 @ 45.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Lost
Yes$37 @ 19.4¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$8 @ 8.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 84.8¢
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 WinnerWon
WLGaming Esports$1 @ 37.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Lost
Yes$4 @ 26.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$7 @ 40.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$7 @ 61.5¢
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026Won
No$2 @ 88.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and 65m?	—	No	$69	85.2¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30?	—	Yes	$26	64.2¢
Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 55m and 60m?	—	No	$14	94.0¢
Will "Practical Magic 2" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m?	—	Yes	$8	57.3¢
Will "Practical Magic 2" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least 13m?	—	No	$6	76.0¢
Plovdiv 4: Adrian Andreev vs Saba Purtseladze	—	Adrian Andreev	$6	78.0¢
Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 70m?	—	Yes	$6	34.3¢
Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 55m and 60m?	—	Yes	$5	26.6¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Politics	No	$5	37.0¢
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 8th Weekend Box Office be at least 6m?	—	Yes	$3	30.0¢
Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 70m?	—	Yes	$3	37.7¢
Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$3	14.9¢
Davis Cup: Alejandro Tabilo vs. Rafael Jodar	—	Alejandro Tabilo	$1	48.8¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1	86.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$1	18.2¢

Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and 65m?—
No$69 @ 85.2¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30?—
Yes$26 @ 64.2¢
Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 55m and 60m?—
No$14 @ 94.0¢
Will "Practical Magic 2" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m?—
Yes$8 @ 57.3¢
Will "Practical Magic 2" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least 13m?—
No$6 @ 76.0¢
Plovdiv 4: Adrian Andreev vs Saba Purtseladze—
Adrian Andreev$6 @ 78.0¢
Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 70m?—
Yes$6 @ 34.3¢
Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 55m and 60m?—
Yes$5 @ 26.6¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics
No$5 @ 37.0¢
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 8th Weekend Box Office be at least 6m?—
Yes$3 @ 30.0¢
Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 70m?—
Yes$3 @ 37.7¢
Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$3 @ 14.9¢
Davis Cup: Alejandro Tabilo vs. Rafael Jodar—
Alejandro Tabilo$1 @ 48.8¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$1 @ 86.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$1 @ 18.2¢