0x3988…7a45

Specialization by sphere

• Other16 bets

  Hit rate

  81% (13/16)

  ROI

  +9%

• Politics4 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (4/4)

  ROI

  +48%

• Tech3 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (3/3)

  ROI

  +30%

• Geopolitics1 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/1)

  ROI

  -100%

• Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026?Lost
  No$2 @ 8.0¢
• Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
  Yes$94 @ 77.0¢
• DeepSeek V4 released by May 15?Won
  Yes$1 @ 87.0¢
• Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Won
  No$3 @ 85.5¢
• GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026?Won
  Yes$1 @ 79.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
  Yes$1.5k @ 89.9¢
• Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Won
  Yes$24 @ 78.1¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 83.0¢
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Won
  Yes$1 @ 81.0¢
• Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Won
  No$96 @ 77.1¢
• Rockets vs. LakersLost
  Rockets$76 @ 57.0¢
• Warriors vs. SunsWon
  Suns$5 @ 59.0¢
• Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?Won
  Yes$9 @ 74.8¢
• Will Cursor be acquired before 2027?Won
  Yes$4 @ 83.0¢
• Will Google (GOOGL) close above $335 on April 16?Won
  Yes$1 @ 58.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
  No$8 @ 53.4¢
• SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Won
  No$2 @ 55.0¢
• Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
  No$100 @ 81.8¢
• US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Lost
  Yes$26 @ 54.9¢
• Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
  Yes$970 @ 65.3¢
• Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?Won
  Yes$2 @ 81.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$224 @ 74.0¢
• Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
  Yes$83 @ 76.9¢
• Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?Won
  Yes$22 @ 85.3¢

Current positions

• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
  No$40.8k @ 81.4¢
• Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Politics
  No$502 @ 89.2¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics
  Yes$253 @ 64.0¢
• Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$234 @ 89.5¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics
  No$114 @ 89.8¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Politics
  No$15 @ 82.0¢
• Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?Tech
  No$10 @ 92.7¢
• Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?Tech
  No$10 @ 96.6¢
• AI bubble burst in 2026?Tech
  No$9 @ 92.2¢
• Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?Politics
  No$5 @ 99.1¢
• Will Scotiabank fail by June 30, 2026?Economy
  No$5 @ 98.7¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
  No$5 @ 68.0¢
• Will Truist fail by June 30, 2026?Economy
  No$5 @ 98.4¢
• Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?Tech
  No$5 @ 98.5¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
  Yes$4 @ 81.0¢
• Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech
  Yes$3 @ 12.0¢
• Will Wells Fargo fail by June 30, 2026?Economy
  No$2 @ 99.5¢
• Will Citigroup fail by June 30, 2026?Economy
  No$2 @ 98.5¢
• Will Santander fail by June 30, 2026?Economy
  No$1 @ 98.7¢