0x3714…9ce3

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x371473617d3064ed904cde2df3e90ad1e0be9ce3
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.5pp

ROI

+16%

Win rate

26% @ 20.4¢

Brier

0.037

Resolved

286

Avg size

$27

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	70% (28/40)	+17%	40
Politics	40% (8/20)	+8%	20
Tech	100% (2/2)	+3%	2
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+12%	1

Other40 bets
Hit rate
70% (28/40)
ROI
+17%
Politics20 bets
Hit rate
40% (8/20)
ROI
+8%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+3%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+12%

Track record

62% hit · 39/63

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?	No	$117	89.9¢	Won
M15 Bologna: Jacopo Bilardo vs Manuel Mazza	Manuel Mazza	$27	67.1¢	Won
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	No	$28	20.1¢	Lost
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?	No	$1	18.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "UFC" this week?	No	$1	6.0¢	Lost
Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	$39	89.0¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$80	80.1¢	Won
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?	Yes	$160	88.6¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$168	82.9¢	Won
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?	Yes	$19	0.2¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	Yes	$16	31.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "New York" this week?	Yes	$0	8.0¢	Won
Israel announces ceasefire by January 16?	No	$219	0.5¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	$263	86.5¢	Won
Will Trump say "NASA" 5+ times during astronaut greeting?	No	$30	30.0¢	Won
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025?	Yes	$904	72.0¢	Won
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?	Yes	$22	2.8¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November?	No	$336	88.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?	No	$178	89.0¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	$65	65.0¢	Won
Doge ETF approved by July 31?	No	$200	80.1¢	Won
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?	Yes	$8	0.1¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$48	31.7¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$42	42.0¢	Won
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?	No	$1.1k	86.5¢	Won
Will Iran strike Iraq again in March?	Yes	$43	86.3¢	Won
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?	Yes	$4	0.1¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	Yes	$111	37.0¢	Won
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?	No	$87	86.5¢	Won
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?	Yes	$6	0.1¢	Lost
M25+H Bagnères-de-Bigorre: Guillaume Dalmasso vs Alex Knaff	Alex Knaff	$7	50.2¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	Yes	$119	79.3¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	$170	85.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	No	$88	88.0¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?	No	$360	72.0¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$650	81.2¢	Won
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	$55	89.8¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?	No	$6	0.1¢	Lost
Will Trump say "NATO" this week?	Yes	$2	8.0¢	Lost
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%?	Yes	$4	0.1¢	Lost
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%?	Yes	$3	0.1¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week?	Yes	$3	9.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	Yes	$128	64.0¢	Won
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	$13	9.4¢	Lost
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	$164	82.0¢	Won
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?	Yes	$12	0.2¢	Lost
Litecoin ETF approved by July 31?	No	$200	55.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	$69	68.6¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Nuke" this week?	Yes	$1	7.0¢	Lost
Trump kiss by May 31?	No	$22	21.7¢	Lost

Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?Won
No$117 @ 89.9¢
M15 Bologna: Jacopo Bilardo vs Manuel MazzaWon
Manuel Mazza$27 @ 67.1¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Lost
No$28 @ 20.1¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 18.0¢
Will Trump say "UFC" this week?Lost
No$1 @ 6.0¢
Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of June 2026?Won
No$39 @ 89.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$80 @ 80.1¢
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?Won
Yes$160 @ 88.6¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$168 @ 82.9¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?Lost
Yes$19 @ 0.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Lost
Yes$16 @ 31.0¢
Will Trump say "New York" this week?Won
Yes$0 @ 8.0¢
Israel announces ceasefire by January 16?Lost
No$219 @ 0.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?Won
Yes$263 @ 86.5¢
Will Trump say "NASA" 5+ times during astronaut greeting?Won
No$30 @ 30.0¢
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025?Won
Yes$904 @ 72.0¢
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?Lost
Yes$22 @ 2.8¢
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November?Won
No$336 @ 88.0¢
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?Won
No$178 @ 89.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Won
No$65 @ 65.0¢
Doge ETF approved by July 31?Won
No$200 @ 80.1¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?Lost
Yes$8 @ 0.1¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$48 @ 31.7¢
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?Won
Yes$42 @ 42.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?Won
No$1.1k @ 86.5¢
Will Iran strike Iraq again in March?Won
Yes$43 @ 86.3¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Won
Yes$111 @ 37.0¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?Won
No$87 @ 86.5¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.1¢
M25+H Bagnères-de-Bigorre: Guillaume Dalmasso vs Alex KnaffWon
Alex Knaff$7 @ 50.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?Won
Yes$119 @ 79.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?Won
No$170 @ 85.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?Won
No$88 @ 88.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?Lost
No$360 @ 72.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
No$650 @ 81.2¢
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?Won
Yes$55 @ 89.8¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?Lost
No$6 @ 0.1¢
Will Trump say "NATO" this week?Lost
Yes$2 @ 8.0¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.1¢
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.1¢
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week?Lost
Yes$3 @ 9.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?Won
Yes$128 @ 64.0¢
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?Lost
No$13 @ 9.4¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Won
No$164 @ 82.0¢
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?Lost
Yes$12 @ 0.2¢
Litecoin ETF approved by July 31?Won
No$200 @ 55.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Lost
No$69 @ 68.6¢
Will Trump say "Nuke" this week?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.0¢
Trump kiss by May 31?Lost
No$22 @ 21.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$297	99.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$198	98.9¢
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	No	$198	98.8¢
NATO dissolves before 2027?	Politics	No	$197	98.6¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$194	97.2¢
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$110	99.6¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$87	86.6¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	Business	Yes	$69	69.0¢
Will Russia enter Kherson by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$29	95.4¢
Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?	Politics	Yes	$26	89.4¢
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$18	97.2¢

Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$297 @ 99.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$198 @ 98.9¢
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
No$198 @ 98.8¢
NATO dissolves before 2027?Politics
No$197 @ 98.6¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics
No$194 @ 97.2¢
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$110 @ 99.6¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$87 @ 86.6¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?Business
Yes$69 @ 69.0¢
Will Russia enter Kherson by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$29 @ 95.4¢
Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?Politics
Yes$26 @ 89.4¢
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$18 @ 97.2¢