0x369c…eab1

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x369cb003e5c381580c9f15dfbc473ac2033beab1
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.7pp

ROI

+14%

Win rate

52% @ 46.8¢

Brier

0.187

Resolved

1310

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Sports	50% (15/30)	+21%	30
Other	48% (11/23)	+7%	23
Politics	55% (6/11)	+33%	11
Tech	50% (5/10)	-20%	10
Economy	50% (4/8)	-44%	8
Geopolitics	50% (2/4)	+2%	4

Sports30 bets
Hit rate
50% (15/30)
ROI
+21%
Other23 bets
Hit rate
48% (11/23)
ROI
+7%
Politics11 bets
Hit rate
55% (6/11)
ROI
+33%
Tech10 bets
Hit rate
50% (5/10)
ROI
-20%
Economy8 bets
Hit rate
50% (4/8)
ROI
-44%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+2%

Track record

50% hit · 43/86

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	No	$5	37.3¢	Lost
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	Yes	$3	63.0¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$4	70.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$3	22.0¢	Won
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$3	64.0¢	Lost
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2	33.0¢	Won
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?	No	$5	45.9¢	Won
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?	Yes	$21	51.8¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?	No	$24	26.1¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?	Yes	$15	74.5¢	Won
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	$22	62.9¢	Lost
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Yes	$3	36.6¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	No	$29	73.1¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	Yes	$4	24.7¢	Lost
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	Yes	$2	39.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	No	$363	64.8¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	Yes	$193	34.1¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?	No	$52	32.5¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?	Yes	$122	62.4¢	Won
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$7	73.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	$1	27.0¢	Won
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$5	51.5¢	Lost
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$14	46.8¢	Won
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-08-28?	Yes	$4	85.0¢	Won
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026?	Yes	$3	68.0¢	Won
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$11	70.3¢	Won
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$7	27.6¢	Lost
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	$13	62.8¢	Won
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	$2	36.0¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?	No	$2	51.0¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?	Yes	$1	48.0¢	Won
Will Australia finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	No	$24	30.6¢	Lost
Will Australia finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	$15	63.6¢	Won
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?	No	$16	52.7¢	Won
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?	Yes	$68	39.1¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?	Yes	$28	32.5¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?	No	$7	23.8¢	Lost
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$11	72.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$26	73.9¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$20	31.5¢	Won
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?	No	$13	62.8¢	Won
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?	Yes	$32	35.2¢	Lost
Will Paraguay finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	No	$10	67.9¢	Won
Will Paraguay finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	$5	24.9¢	Lost
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	No	$5	25.3¢	Lost
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?	Yes	$13	28.9¢	Won
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026?	Yes	$1	26.0¢	Lost
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	No	$4	75.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$10	40.6¢	Won
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?	No	$8	55.2¢	Won

Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Lost
No$5 @ 37.3¢
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Won
Yes$3 @ 63.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$4 @ 70.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$3 @ 22.0¢
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$3 @ 64.0¢
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$2 @ 33.0¢
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?Won
No$5 @ 45.9¢
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?Lost
Yes$21 @ 51.8¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?Lost
No$24 @ 26.1¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?Won
Yes$15 @ 74.5¢
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Lost
No$22 @ 62.9¢
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Won
Yes$3 @ 36.6¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Won
No$29 @ 73.1¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Lost
Yes$4 @ 24.7¢
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?Won
Yes$2 @ 39.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Won
No$363 @ 64.8¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Lost
Yes$193 @ 34.1¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?Lost
No$52 @ 32.5¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?Won
Yes$122 @ 62.4¢
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Lost
No$7 @ 73.0¢
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
Yes$1 @ 27.0¢
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$5 @ 51.5¢
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$14 @ 46.8¢
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-08-28?Won
Yes$4 @ 85.0¢
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026?Won
Yes$3 @ 68.0¢
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$11 @ 70.3¢
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$7 @ 27.6¢
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Won
No$13 @ 62.8¢
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Lost
Yes$2 @ 36.0¢
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?Lost
No$2 @ 51.0¢
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?Won
Yes$1 @ 48.0¢
Will Australia finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?Lost
No$24 @ 30.6¢
Will Australia finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?Won
Yes$15 @ 63.6¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?Won
No$16 @ 52.7¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?Lost
Yes$68 @ 39.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$28 @ 32.5¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?Lost
No$7 @ 23.8¢
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$11 @ 72.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
No$26 @ 73.9¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$20 @ 31.5¢
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?Won
No$13 @ 62.8¢
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?Lost
Yes$32 @ 35.2¢
Will Paraguay finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?Won
No$10 @ 67.9¢
Will Paraguay finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?Lost
Yes$5 @ 24.9¢
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?Lost
No$5 @ 25.3¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?Won
Yes$13 @ 28.9¢
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 26.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 75.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Won
No$10 @ 40.6¢
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?Won
No$8 @ 55.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Al Lawson win the Tallahassee mayoral election?	Politics	No	$8	82.0¢
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?	Crypto	No	$7	71.5¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$7	59.1¢
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	No	$7	65.3¢
Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Politics	No	$6	65.3¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Economy	No	$4	73.0¢
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$3	66.7¢
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$3	32.9¢
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	No	$3	34.7¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	No	$3	39.1¢
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$2	24.5¢
Will Al Lawson win the Tallahassee mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$2	24.0¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$2	53.2¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$2	45.4¢
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?	—	Yes	$2	22.4¢
Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Politics	Yes	$2	33.3¢
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$2	49.0¢
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2	Sports	Pacquiao	$2	40.0¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Economy	Yes	$1	27.0¢
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?	Politics	No	$1	47.5¢

Will Al Lawson win the Tallahassee mayoral election?Politics
No$8 @ 82.0¢
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?Crypto
No$7 @ 71.5¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$7 @ 59.1¢
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
No$7 @ 65.3¢
Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Politics
No$6 @ 65.3¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Economy
No$4 @ 73.0¢
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$3 @ 66.7¢
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$3 @ 32.9¢
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
No$3 @ 34.7¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
No$3 @ 39.1¢
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?Crypto
Yes$2 @ 24.5¢
Will Al Lawson win the Tallahassee mayoral election?Politics
Yes$2 @ 24.0¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$2 @ 53.2¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$2 @ 45.4¢
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?—
Yes$2 @ 22.4¢
Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Politics
Yes$2 @ 33.3¢
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?Politics
Yes$2 @ 49.0¢
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2Sports
Pacquiao$2 @ 40.0¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Economy
Yes$1 @ 27.0¢
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?Politics
No$1 @ 47.5¢