← Smart money
0x368b…2458
ProfitableEdge
+7.4pp
ROI
+4%
Win rate
55% @ 47.4¢
Brier
0.140
Resolved
2371
Avg size
$353
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 50% (37/74) | -7% | 74 |
| Politics | 63% (10/16) | +14% | 16 |
| Geopolitics | 50% (1/2) | +7% | 2 |
| Sports | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
| Crypto | 100% (1/1) | +116% | 1 |
- Other74 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (37/74)
- ROI
- -7%
- Politics16 bets
- Hit rate
- 63% (10/16)
- ROI
- +14%
- Geopolitics2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- +7%
- Sports1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
- Crypto1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +116%
Track record
52% hit · 49/94- No$373 @ 36.5¢
- No$3.6k @ 86.9¢
- No$461 @ 15.4¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 11.0¢
- Yes$8.0k @ 24.8¢
- Yes$7.8k @ 62.1¢
- No$1.3k @ 88.2¢
- No$1.1k @ 36.9¢
- Yes$5 @ 21.0¢
- No$10.5k @ 74.5¢
- No$2.7k @ 63.5¢
- No$221 @ 44.0¢
- No$2.3k @ 58.1¢
- Yes$4.0k @ 76.0¢
- No$75 @ 81.9¢
- No$3.5k @ 83.0¢
- Yes$120 @ 0.6¢
- No$251 @ 25.1¢
- No$3.0k @ 71.0¢
- Yes$3.4k @ 45.9¢
- No$8.1k @ 83.2¢
- No$2.3k @ 46.3¢
- Yes$460 @ 42.5¢
- No$4.4k @ 34.6¢
- Yes$7.8k @ 78.0¢
- No$85 @ 77.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 21.0¢
- No$5.4k @ 24.5¢
- No$8.1k @ 69.6¢
- Yes$2.2k @ 26.6¢
- No$809 @ 76.2¢
- Yes$1.8k @ 36.0¢
- Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?LostYes$7 @ 0.7¢
- Yes$24.2k @ 65.9¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 69.0¢
- No$15 @ 19.0¢
- No$2.2k @ 46.0¢
- No$10.1k @ 77.8¢
- Yes$243 @ 9.9¢
- No$66.7k @ 64.5¢
- No$3.7k @ 74.4¢
- Yes$1.9k @ 89.3¢
- Yes$934 @ 49.0¢
- No$44.8k @ 39.9¢
- No$2.8k @ 80.1¢
- No$288 @ 11.7¢
- Yes$500 @ 10.0¢
- Yes$795 @ 6.0¢
- No$258 @ 82.2¢
- Yes$483 @ 10.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Politics | No | $25.1k | 83.7¢ |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Politics | No | $18.4k | 92.0¢ |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $3.6k | 73.0¢ |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? | Other | No | $3.4k | 84.0¢ |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Culture | Yes | $2.0k | 84.0¢ |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Politics | No | $372 | 67.0¢ |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Politics | Yes | $44 | 80.0¢ |
- No$25.1k @ 83.7¢
- No$18.4k @ 92.0¢
- Yes$3.6k @ 73.0¢
- No$3.4k @ 84.0¢
- Yes$2.0k @ 84.0¢
- No$372 @ 67.0¢
- Yes$44 @ 80.0¢