0x3653…ef74

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x3653235d75a0d5969c42f7514d4df8ea5f8cef74
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+1.8pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

40% @ 38.2¢

Brier

0.181

Resolved

4503

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Science	34% (3006/8888)	+2%	8888
Other	24% (785/3338)	-3%	3338
Politics	37% (215/582)	-10%	582
Culture	37% (99/267)	-4%	267
Sports	49% (105/216)	+10%	216
Crypto	28% (15/53)	-13%	53
Tech	32% (12/37)	-9%	37
Geopolitics	29% (5/17)	-32%	17
Economy	36% (4/11)	-25%	11
Business	0% (0/3)	-100%	3

Science8888 bets
Hit rate
34% (3006/8888)
ROI
+2%
Other3338 bets
Hit rate
24% (785/3338)
ROI
-3%
Politics582 bets
Hit rate
37% (215/582)
ROI
-10%
Culture267 bets
Hit rate
37% (99/267)
ROI
-4%
Sports216 bets
Hit rate
49% (105/216)
ROI
+10%
Crypto53 bets
Hit rate
28% (15/53)
ROI
-13%
Tech37 bets
Hit rate
32% (12/37)
ROI
-9%
Geopolitics17 bets
Hit rate
29% (5/17)
ROI
-32%
Economy11 bets
Hit rate
36% (4/11)
ROI
-25%
Business3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%

Track record

32% hit · 4246/13412

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on October 29?	Yes	$9	9.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on October 29?	Yes	$15	9.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on October 29?	Yes	$9	9.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C or higher on October 29?	Yes	$22	9.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on October 29?	Yes	$4	9.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C or below on October 29?	Yes	$22	9.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on October 29?	Yes	$22	9.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on October 29?	Yes	$14	48.9¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on October 29?	Yes	$22	9.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on October 29?	No	$27	97.7¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on October 29?	Yes	$0	0.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on October 29?	Yes	$6	9.1¢	Lost
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by at least 80%?	Yes	$288	14.3¢	Lost
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by less than 20%?	Yes	$237	14.3¢	Lost
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	$96	14.3¢	Lost
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	No	$1	2.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on October 29?	Yes	$1	9.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on October 29?	Yes	$0	0.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on October 29?	Yes	$3	9.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C or below on October 29?	Yes	$3	9.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on October 29?	Yes	$2	9.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on October 29?	Yes	$3	9.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on October 28?	Yes	$126	89.6¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on October 28?	Yes	$2	1.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on October 28?	No	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on October 28?	Yes	$6	12.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on October 28?	Yes	$1	1.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on October 28?	Yes	$10	9.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on October 28?	Yes	$3	2.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on October 28?	Yes	$5	9.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on October 28?	Yes	$2	8.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on October 28?	Yes	$0	9.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 63°F or below on October 28?	Yes	$5	9.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 82°F or higher on October 28?	Yes	$5	9.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on October 28?	Yes	$2	8.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on October 28?	Yes	$1	9.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on October 28?	Yes	$4	9.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on October 28?	No	$35	59.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on October 28?	Yes	$6	9.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on October 28?	Yes	$0	9.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 59°F or below on October 28?	Yes	$10	9.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 78°F or higher on October 28?	Yes	$10	9.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on October 28?	Yes	$5	8.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on October 28?	Yes	$10	9.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on October 28?	Yes	$9	9.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on October 28?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on October 28?	Yes	$0	8.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 24°C or below on October 28?	Yes	$6	9.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	$0	1.8¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on October 28?	Yes	$2	46.0¢	Lost

Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on October 29?Lost
Yes$9 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on October 29?Lost
Yes$15 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on October 29?Lost
Yes$9 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C or higher on October 29?Lost
Yes$22 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on October 29?Lost
Yes$4 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C or below on October 29?Lost
Yes$22 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on October 29?Lost
Yes$22 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on October 29?Won
Yes$14 @ 48.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on October 29?Lost
Yes$22 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on October 29?Won
No$27 @ 97.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on October 29?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on October 29?Lost
Yes$6 @ 9.1¢
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by at least 80%?Lost
Yes$288 @ 14.3¢
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by less than 20%?Lost
Yes$237 @ 14.3¢
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?Lost
Yes$96 @ 14.3¢
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?Lost
No$1 @ 2.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on October 29?Lost
Yes$1 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on October 29?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on October 29?Lost
Yes$3 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C or below on October 29?Lost
Yes$3 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on October 29?Lost
Yes$2 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on October 29?Lost
Yes$3 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on October 28?Won
Yes$126 @ 89.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on October 28?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on October 28?Lost
No$0 @ 1.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on October 28?Lost
Yes$6 @ 12.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on October 28?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on October 28?Lost
Yes$10 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on October 28?Lost
Yes$3 @ 2.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on October 28?Lost
Yes$5 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on October 28?Lost
Yes$2 @ 8.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on October 28?Lost
Yes$0 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 63°F or below on October 28?Lost
Yes$5 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 82°F or higher on October 28?Lost
Yes$5 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on October 28?Lost
Yes$2 @ 8.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on October 28?Lost
Yes$1 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on October 28?Lost
Yes$4 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on October 28?Lost
No$35 @ 59.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on October 28?Lost
Yes$6 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on October 28?Lost
Yes$0 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 59°F or below on October 28?Lost
Yes$10 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 78°F or higher on October 28?Lost
Yes$10 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on October 28?Lost
Yes$5 @ 8.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on October 28?Lost
Yes$10 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on October 28?Lost
Yes$9 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on October 28?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on October 28?Lost
Yes$0 @ 8.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 24°C or below on October 28?Lost
Yes$6 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on October 28?Won
Yes$0 @ 1.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on October 28?Lost
Yes$2 @ 46.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Joint List win 10-11 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Politics	Yes	$1.8k	85.1¢
Will Joint List win fewer than 6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Politics	Yes	$315	17.5¢
Will Joint List win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Politics	Yes	$306	13.5¢
Will Joint List win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Politics	Yes	$306	20.0¢
Will Joint List win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Politics	Yes	$304	19.3¢
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by at least 80%?	Politics	Yes	$288	14.3¢
Will The Joint List win 7.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Politics	Yes	$287	88.0¢
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Geopolitics	Yes	$277	20.0¢
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by less than 20%?	Politics	Yes	$237	14.3¢
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Geopolitics	Yes	$213	20.0¢
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Geopolitics	Yes	$179	88.7¢
Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Politics	No	$178	83.0¢
Will Broad Front (FA) win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Politics	Yes	$145	3.0¢
Will Podemos win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Politics	Yes	$145	3.0¢
Will Vox win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Politics	Yes	$130	3.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on October 28?	Science	Yes	$126	89.6¢
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Politics	Yes	$96	14.3¢
Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win less than 3.25% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Politics	Yes	$80	19.7¢
Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 3.25-4% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Politics	Yes	$75	19.6¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-02 House seat?	Politics	No	$64	68.8¢
Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 50+ bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Geopolitics	Yes	$64	16.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on October 29?	Science	Yes	$48	36.5¢
Will 5 or more Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$48	16.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 24°C or below on October 28?	Science	Yes	$32	9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C on October 28?	Science	Yes	$32	9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 25°C on October 28?	Science	Yes	$32	9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on October 28?	Science	Yes	$32	9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on October 28?	Science	Yes	$26	8.9¢
Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 4.75-5.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Politics	Yes	$26	19.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on October 28?	Science	Yes	$25	19.6¢

Will Joint List win 10-11 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
Yes$1.8k @ 85.1¢
Will Joint List win fewer than 6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
Yes$315 @ 17.5¢
Will Joint List win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
Yes$306 @ 13.5¢
Will Joint List win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
Yes$306 @ 20.0¢
Will Joint List win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
Yes$304 @ 19.3¢
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by at least 80%?Politics
Yes$288 @ 14.3¢
Will The Joint List win 7.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
Yes$287 @ 88.0¢
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Geopolitics
Yes$277 @ 20.0¢
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by less than 20%?Politics
Yes$237 @ 14.3¢
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Geopolitics
Yes$213 @ 20.0¢
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?Geopolitics
Yes$179 @ 88.7¢
Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Politics
No$178 @ 83.0¢
Will Broad Front (FA) win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Politics
Yes$145 @ 3.0¢
Will Podemos win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Politics
Yes$145 @ 3.0¢
Will Vox win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Politics
Yes$130 @ 3.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on October 28?Science
Yes$126 @ 89.6¢
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?Politics
Yes$96 @ 14.3¢
Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win less than 3.25% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
Yes$80 @ 19.7¢
Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 3.25-4% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
Yes$75 @ 19.6¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-02 House seat?Politics
No$64 @ 68.8¢
Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 50+ bps at the November 2026 meeting?Geopolitics
Yes$64 @ 16.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on October 29?Science
Yes$48 @ 36.5¢
Will 5 or more Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$48 @ 16.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 24°C or below on October 28?Science
Yes$32 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C on October 28?Science
Yes$32 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 25°C on October 28?Science
Yes$32 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on October 28?Science
Yes$32 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on October 28?Science
Yes$26 @ 8.9¢
Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 4.75-5.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
Yes$26 @ 19.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on October 28?Science
Yes$25 @ 19.6¢