← Smart money
0x3639…7667
ProfitableEdge
+16.3pp
ROI
+34%
Win rate
52% @ 35.7¢
Brier
0.223
Resolved
50
Avg size
$7
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 67% (8/12) | +4% | 12 |
| Crypto | 75% (3/4) | +63% | 4 |
| Other | 33% (1/3) | +159% | 3 |
| Sports | 50% (1/2) | +41% | 2 |
| Geopolitics | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Politics12 bets
- Hit rate
- 67% (8/12)
- ROI
- +4%
- Crypto4 bets
- Hit rate
- 75% (3/4)
- ROI
- +63%
- Other3 bets
- Hit rate
- 33% (1/3)
- ROI
- +159%
- Sports2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- +41%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
59% hit · 13/22- No$9 @ 57.0¢
- Yes$52 @ 25.7¢
- No$20 @ 87.6¢
- No$19 @ 86.0¢
- No$23 @ 81.9¢
- Yes$3 @ 7.5¢
- No$19 @ 35.0¢
- Yes$20 @ 34.2¢
- No$4 @ 82.5¢
- Yes$9 @ 7.9¢
- No$10 @ 45.7¢
- Yes$11 @ 28.1¢
- Yes$46 @ 47.5¢
- Yes$9 @ 18.0¢
- No$7 @ 44.7¢
- Yes$19 @ 16.7¢
- Yes$17 @ 6.8¢
- No$17 @ 78.8¢
- Yes$3 @ 7.0¢
- Yes$20 @ 64.0¢
- Yes$20 @ 78.0¢
- Yes$20 @ 67.0¢
Recent trades
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Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Sports | No | $39 | 63.9¢ |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Politics | No | $39 | 81.5¢ |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Politics | Yes | $19 | 24.8¢ |
| Will Marcelo Aro win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | Politics | No | $16 | 91.0¢ |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | Science | No | $15 | 91.5¢ |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | — | Yes | $11 | 53.0¢ |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | Politics | No | $9 | 79.0¢ |
- No$39 @ 63.9¢
- No$39 @ 81.5¢
- Yes$19 @ 24.8¢
- No$16 @ 91.0¢
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?ScienceNo$15 @ 91.5¢
- Yes$11 @ 53.0¢
- No$9 @ 79.0¢