0x34af…bd55

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x34af3a317ccc5fbed5ed504d13a064ffa7f4bd55
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.9pp

ROI

+14%

Win rate

71% @ 62.0¢

Brier

0.136

Resolved

933

Avg size

$23

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	62% (133/216)	+8%	216
Tech	92% (11/12)	+37%	12
Politics	86% (6/7)	+36%	7
Sports	75% (3/4)	+12%	4
Economy	33% (1/3)	+12%	3
Geopolitics	100% (2/2)	+17%	2
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+37%	1

Other216 bets
Hit rate
62% (133/216)
ROI
+8%
Tech12 bets
Hit rate
92% (11/12)
ROI
+37%
Politics7 bets
Hit rate
86% (6/7)
ROI
+36%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+12%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+12%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+17%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+37%

Track record

64% hit · 157/245

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.325T by September 30?	Yes	$112	94.9¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 1?	No	$90	89.5¢	Won
Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31?	No	$165	87.9¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 3?	No	$134	67.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 3?	Yes	$2	15.0¢	Lost
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner	Ninjas in Pyjamas	$31	76.3¢	Won
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner	Team WE	$9	21.7¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	No	$865	77.0¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	Yes	$136	20.6¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	Yes	$102	15.4¢	Lost
LoL: Barça eSports vs Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 2 Winner	Barça eSports	$2	13.8¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$1	87.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 2?	Yes	$1	81.9¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 29?	Yes	$12	57.5¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$82	81.8¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 1?	No	$247	82.3¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 1?	Yes	$52	14.4¢	Lost
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in November?	No	$17	86.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?	Yes	$1	18.0¢	Lost
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?	No	$2.0k	80.1¢	Won
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	$50	80.5¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	$217	77.5¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?	Yes	$1	4.9¢	Lost
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets	Lakers	$200	78.8¢	Won
Knicks vs. Spurs	Spurs	$34	67.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy announces >4000 BTC purchase September 23-29?	Yes	$1	8.0¢	Lost
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February?	No	$15	50.7¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January?	No	$1.7k	74.5¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6?	Yes	$36	72.9¢	Won
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?	No	$10	85.4¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	Yes	$25	58.6¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	No	$2.4k	85.6¢	Won
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?	No	$3	53.9¢	Lost
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Playoffs	Bilibili Gaming	$2	42.0¢	Won
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Playoffs	EDward Gaming	$3	56.0¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	$88	88.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?	Yes	$1	12.8¢	Won
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	No	$8	76.3¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	$122	81.0¢	Won
Will Elon tweet 390–404 times August 1–August 8?	Yes	$1	17.0¢	Lost
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $80-$90 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 23 – Feb 27?	No	$132	66.1¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?	Yes	$2	12.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?	Yes	$1	76.0¢	Won
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?	No	$66	82.0¢	Won
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?	Yes	$1	6.1¢	Lost
VfB Stuttgart vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 2.5	Under	$1	10.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	No	$88	88.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin hit $100k or $130k first?	100k	$1	30.0¢	Won
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January?	No	$18	89.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $460b and $470b on December 31?	No	$1	79.0¢	Won

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.325T by September 30?Won
Yes$112 @ 94.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 1?Won
No$90 @ 89.5¢
Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31?Won
No$165 @ 87.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 3?Won
No$134 @ 67.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 3?Lost
Yes$2 @ 15.0¢
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE - Game 2 WinnerWon
Ninjas in Pyjamas$31 @ 76.3¢
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE - Game 2 WinnerLost
Team WE$9 @ 21.7¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Won
No$865 @ 77.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Lost
Yes$136 @ 20.6¢
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$102 @ 15.4¢
LoL: Barça eSports vs Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 2 WinnerLost
Barça eSports$2 @ 13.8¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
Yes$1 @ 87.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 2?Won
Yes$1 @ 81.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 29?Lost
Yes$12 @ 57.5¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$82 @ 81.8¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 1?Won
No$247 @ 82.3¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 1?Lost
Yes$52 @ 14.4¢
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in November?Won
No$17 @ 86.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?Lost
Yes$1 @ 18.0¢
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?Won
No$2.0k @ 80.1¢
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 80.5¢
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?Won
Yes$217 @ 77.5¢
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.9¢
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets Won
Lakers$200 @ 78.8¢
Knicks vs. SpursLost
Spurs$34 @ 67.0¢
MicroStrategy announces >4000 BTC purchase September 23-29?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February?Won
No$15 @ 50.7¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January?Won
No$1.7k @ 74.5¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6?Won
Yes$36 @ 72.9¢
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?Won
No$10 @ 85.4¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?Lost
Yes$25 @ 58.6¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Won
No$2.4k @ 85.6¢
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?Lost
No$3 @ 53.9¢
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff PlayoffsWon
Bilibili Gaming$2 @ 42.0¢
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff PlayoffsLost
EDward Gaming$3 @ 56.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Won
Yes$88 @ 88.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?Won
Yes$1 @ 12.8¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Won
No$8 @ 76.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$122 @ 81.0¢
Will Elon tweet 390–404 times August 1–August 8?Lost
Yes$1 @ 17.0¢
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $80-$90 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 23 – Feb 27?Won
No$132 @ 66.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?Lost
Yes$2 @ 12.0¢
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?Won
Yes$1 @ 76.0¢
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?Won
No$66 @ 82.0¢
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.1¢
VfB Stuttgart vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 2.5Lost
Under$1 @ 10.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Won
No$88 @ 88.0¢
Will Bitcoin hit $100k or $130k first?Won
100k$1 @ 30.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January?Won
No$18 @ 89.0¢
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $460b and $470b on December 31?Won
No$1 @ 79.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$1.4k	87.4¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.525T by September 30?	Tech	No	$987	97.5¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.625T by September 30?	Other	No	$985	87.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$955	93.9¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.875T by September 30?	Other	No	$950	94.5¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$929	92.9¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $825B by September 30?	Tech	No	$873	94.2¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $875B by September 30?	Tech	No	$767	85.2¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.225T by September 30?	Other	No	$729	86.5¢
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $37.5B by September 30?	Other	No	$657	97.1¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$532	78.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.275T by September 30?	Tech	No	$521	98.3¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$451	90.1¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.425T by September 30?	Other	No	$410	78.8¢
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$400	87.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by September 30?	Tech	No	$374	97.7¢
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $140B by September 30?	Other	No	$343	93.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.125T by September 30?	Tech	No	$339	96.9¢
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$306	90.1¢
Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$289	92.0¢
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by December 31?	Tech	No	$277	75.2¢
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $145B by September 30?	Other	No	$254	95.5¢
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$242	82.7¢
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$229	89.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.125T by September 30?	Other	No	$225	96.3¢
Will Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $105B by September 30?	Other	No	$197	95.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$183	91.5¢
Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Tech	No	$172	80.5¢
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$164	82.0¢
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $750B by September 30?	Other	No	$152	99.1¢

Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$1.4k @ 87.4¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.525T by September 30?Tech
No$987 @ 97.5¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.625T by September 30?Other
No$985 @ 87.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?Tech
No$955 @ 93.9¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.875T by September 30?Other
No$950 @ 94.5¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$929 @ 92.9¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $825B by September 30?Tech
No$873 @ 94.2¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $875B by September 30?Tech
No$767 @ 85.2¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.225T by September 30?Other
No$729 @ 86.5¢
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $37.5B by September 30?Other
No$657 @ 97.1¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$532 @ 78.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.275T by September 30?Tech
No$521 @ 98.3¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?Tech
No$451 @ 90.1¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.425T by September 30?Other
No$410 @ 78.8¢
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$400 @ 87.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by September 30?Tech
No$374 @ 97.7¢
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $140B by September 30?Other
No$343 @ 93.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.125T by September 30?Tech
No$339 @ 96.9¢
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$306 @ 90.1¢
Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$289 @ 92.0¢
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by December 31?Tech
No$277 @ 75.2¢
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $145B by September 30?Other
No$254 @ 95.5¢
Anthropic IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$242 @ 82.7¢
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$229 @ 89.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.125T by September 30?Other
No$225 @ 96.3¢
Will Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $105B by September 30?Other
No$197 @ 95.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$183 @ 91.5¢
Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech
No$172 @ 80.5¢
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Tech
No$164 @ 82.0¢
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $750B by September 30?Other
No$152 @ 99.1¢