0x34af…bd55

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x34af3a317ccc5fbed5ed504d13a064ffa7f4bd55
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.9pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

75% @ 65.4¢

Brier

0.126

Resolved

988

Avg size

$33

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	72% (227/315)	+8%	315
Tech	87% (55/63)	+17%	63
Business	100% (49/49)	+3%	49
Politics	90% (26/29)	+10%	29
Crypto	100% (10/10)	+4%	10
Sports	60% (3/5)	-2%	5
Economy	33% (1/3)	+12%	3
Geopolitics	100% (2/2)	+17%	2
Culture	100% (2/2)	+19%	2

Other315 bets
Hit rate
72% (227/315)
ROI
+8%
Tech63 bets
Hit rate
87% (55/63)
ROI
+17%
Business49 bets
Hit rate
100% (49/49)
ROI
+3%
Politics29 bets
Hit rate
90% (26/29)
ROI
+10%
Crypto10 bets
Hit rate
100% (10/10)
ROI
+4%
Sports5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
-2%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+12%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+17%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+19%

Track record

78% hit · 375/478

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 1?	No	$90	89.5¢	Won
Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31?	No	$154	88.8¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 3?	No	$134	67.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 3?	Yes	$2	15.0¢	Lost
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner	Ninjas in Pyjamas	$31	76.3¢	Won
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner	Team WE	$9	21.7¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	No	$865	77.0¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	Yes	$136	20.6¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	Yes	$102	15.4¢	Lost
LoL: Barça eSports vs Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 2 Winner	Barça eSports	$2	13.8¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 29?	Yes	$12	57.5¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$82	81.8¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 1?	No	$247	82.3¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 1?	Yes	$52	14.4¢	Lost
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in November?	No	$17	86.0¢	Won
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?	No	$2.0k	80.1¢	Won
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	$50	80.5¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	$217	77.5¢	Won
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets	Lakers	$200	78.8¢	Won
Knicks vs. Spurs	Spurs	$34	67.0¢	Lost
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February?	No	$15	50.7¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January?	No	$1.7k	74.5¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6?	Yes	$36	72.9¢	Won
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?	No	$10	85.4¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	Yes	$25	58.6¢	Lost
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?	No	$24	47.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	No	$2.4k	85.6¢	Won
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Playoffs	Bilibili Gaming	$2	42.0¢	Won
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Playoffs	EDward Gaming	$3	56.0¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	$88	88.0¢	Won
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	No	$8	76.3¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	$122	81.0¢	Won
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $80-$90 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 23 – Feb 27?	No	$132	66.1¢	Won
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?	No	$66	82.0¢	Won
VfB Stuttgart vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 2.5	Under	$1	10.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	No	$88	88.0¢	Won
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January?	No	$18	89.0¢	Won
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	No	$36	71.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$321	82.8¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$254	84.5¢	Won
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $80-$90 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 5 – Jan 9?	Yes	$7	87.0¢	Won
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	$2.3k	65.3¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	No	$91	83.5¢	Won
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?	No	$25	84.0¢	Won
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	$4	0.2¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the March meeting?	Yes	$6	37.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	$177	88.3¢	Won
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs Leviatan Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Cup Playoffs	Leviatan Esports	$144	68.3¢	Won
Will the announcers say "Shot" 10+ times during the USA vs Belgium FIFA World Cup Match?	Yes	$37	61.0¢	Lost
LoL: Barça eSports vs Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Kick-off Playoffs	Movistar KOI Fénix	$215	77.3¢	Won

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 1?Won
No$90 @ 89.5¢
Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31?Won
No$154 @ 88.8¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 3?Won
No$134 @ 67.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 3?Lost
Yes$2 @ 15.0¢
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE - Game 2 WinnerWon
Ninjas in Pyjamas$31 @ 76.3¢
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE - Game 2 WinnerLost
Team WE$9 @ 21.7¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Won
No$865 @ 77.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Lost
Yes$136 @ 20.6¢
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$102 @ 15.4¢
LoL: Barça eSports vs Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 2 WinnerLost
Barça eSports$2 @ 13.8¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 29?Lost
Yes$12 @ 57.5¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$82 @ 81.8¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 1?Won
No$247 @ 82.3¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 1?Lost
Yes$52 @ 14.4¢
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in November?Won
No$17 @ 86.0¢
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?Won
No$2.0k @ 80.1¢
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 80.5¢
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?Won
Yes$217 @ 77.5¢
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets Won
Lakers$200 @ 78.8¢
Knicks vs. SpursLost
Spurs$34 @ 67.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February?Won
No$15 @ 50.7¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January?Won
No$1.7k @ 74.5¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6?Won
Yes$36 @ 72.9¢
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?Won
No$10 @ 85.4¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?Lost
Yes$25 @ 58.6¢
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?Lost
No$24 @ 47.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Won
No$2.4k @ 85.6¢
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff PlayoffsWon
Bilibili Gaming$2 @ 42.0¢
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff PlayoffsLost
EDward Gaming$3 @ 56.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Won
Yes$88 @ 88.0¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Won
No$8 @ 76.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$122 @ 81.0¢
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $80-$90 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 23 – Feb 27?Won
No$132 @ 66.1¢
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?Won
No$66 @ 82.0¢
VfB Stuttgart vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 2.5Lost
Under$1 @ 10.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Won
No$88 @ 88.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January?Won
No$18 @ 89.0¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$36 @ 71.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$321 @ 82.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$254 @ 84.5¢
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $80-$90 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 5 – Jan 9?Won
Yes$7 @ 87.0¢
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?Won
No$2.3k @ 65.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Won
No$91 @ 83.5¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?Won
No$25 @ 84.0¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.2¢
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the March meeting?Lost
Yes$6 @ 37.0¢
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?Won
No$177 @ 88.3¢
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs Leviatan Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Cup PlayoffsWon
Leviatan Esports$144 @ 68.3¢
Will the announcers say "Shot" 10+ times during the USA vs Belgium FIFA World Cup Match?Lost
Yes$37 @ 61.0¢
LoL: Barça eSports vs Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Kick-off PlayoffsWon
Movistar KOI Fénix$215 @ 77.3¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$737	86.6¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$653	76.2¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	No	$384	96.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$365	91.3¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$282	98.4¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $500B by December 31?	Other	No	$253	97.3¢
Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Tech	No	$242	95.5¢
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $25B by December 31?	Tech	No	$239	88.7¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$227	78.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$222	98.3¢
Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $6B by December 31?	Tech	No	$212	92.2¢
Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $5B by December 31?	Tech	No	$194	97.1¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31?	Other	No	$184	95.5¢
Will Anthropic be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Tech	No	$173	94.5¢
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?	Other	No	$169	96.7¢
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $75B by December 31?	Tech	No	$168	80.0¢
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$165	82.7¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $168B by November 30?	Other	No	$150	83.9¢
Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Tech	No	$144	66.1¢
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$139	96.0¢
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?	Politics	No	$136	90.1¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?	Politics	No	$129	91.0¢
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by December 31?	Tech	No	$125	75.2¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31?	Other	No	$122	93.0¢
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $525B by November 30?	Other	No	$118	89.6¢
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$116	89.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$110	93.9¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by December 31?	Other	No	$109	94.0¢
Will Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Tech	No	$100	92.5¢
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$98	98.0¢

Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$737 @ 86.6¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$653 @ 76.2¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
No$384 @ 96.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?Tech
No$365 @ 91.3¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?Tech
No$282 @ 98.4¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $500B by December 31?Other
No$253 @ 97.3¢
Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?Tech
No$242 @ 95.5¢
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $25B by December 31?Tech
No$239 @ 88.7¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$227 @ 78.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?Tech
No$222 @ 98.3¢
Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $6B by December 31?Tech
No$212 @ 92.2¢
Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $5B by December 31?Tech
No$194 @ 97.1¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31?Other
No$184 @ 95.5¢
Will Anthropic be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?Tech
No$173 @ 94.5¢
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?Other
No$169 @ 96.7¢
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $75B by December 31?Tech
No$168 @ 80.0¢
Anthropic IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$165 @ 82.7¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $168B by November 30?Other
No$150 @ 83.9¢
Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of December 2026?Tech
No$144 @ 66.1¢
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$139 @ 96.0¢
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?Politics
No$136 @ 90.1¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?Politics
No$129 @ 91.0¢
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by December 31?Tech
No$125 @ 75.2¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31?Other
No$122 @ 93.0¢
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $525B by November 30?Other
No$118 @ 89.6¢
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$116 @ 89.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?Tech
No$110 @ 93.9¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by December 31?Other
No$109 @ 94.0¢
Will Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?Tech
No$100 @ 92.5¢
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$98 @ 98.0¢