0x3413…5204

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x34134e7c29b654c4f53ec213e6f35808b3f05204
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.9pp

ROI

+42%

Win rate

29% @ 25.2¢

Brier

0.144

Resolved

834

Avg size

$89

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	47% (17/36)	+57%	36
Sports	13% (1/8)	-93%	8
Politics	100% (1/1)	+14%	1

Other36 bets
Hit rate
47% (17/36)
ROI
+57%
Sports8 bets
Hit rate
13% (1/8)
ROI
-93%
Politics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+14%

Track record

42% hit · 19/45

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Nate Morris be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?	Yes	$9	13.7¢	Lost
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	$41	6.6¢	Lost
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$335	12.8¢	Lost
Will the Packers win the NFC Championship?	Yes	$29	6.0¢	Lost
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	$8.3k	45.4¢	Lost
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	$233	68.0¢	Won
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026?	Yes	$4.2k	6.0¢	Lost
Will Arsenal win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?	No	$6	72.1¢	Won
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$2.2k	20.8¢	Lost
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	No	$8	71.5¢	Won
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$25	7.1¢	Lost
International ODI: Sri Lanka vs England (Game 1)	England	$2	2.8¢	Lost
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	No	$2.1k	40.9¢	Lost
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	$7.9k	26.7¢	Won
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	$135	68.6¢	Won
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	No	$1.5k	80.4¢	Won
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	Yes	$2	33.8¢	Lost
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	No	$256	33.5¢	Lost
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	Yes	$265	49.1¢	Won
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?	No	$67	65.8¢	Lost
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?	Yes	$2.0k	61.4¢	Won
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026?	No	$293	82.6¢	Won
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026?	Yes	$5	7.2¢	Lost
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	$120	87.6¢	Won
Will Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?	No	$235	72.8¢	Won
Will Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?	Yes	$808	19.5¢	Lost
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	$22	12.1¢	Lost
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?	No	$352	70.4¢	Won
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?	Yes	$119	22.5¢	Lost
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	No	$1.2k	32.2¢	Lost
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	$195	80.6¢	Won
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	$124	8.0¢	Lost
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	No	$25.2k	43.7¢	Won
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$3	6.0¢	Lost
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	No	$1.2k	89.3¢	Won
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	Yes	$9	18.0¢	Lost
Will Ken Paxton come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	$14	34.3¢	Won
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026?	Yes	$4	8.4¢	Lost
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	$3.0k	18.9¢	Lost
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	$145	23.4¢	Lost
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	$299	20.8¢	Lost
Will Matthew Stafford win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?	No	$841	62.0¢	Lost
Will Matthew Stafford win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?	Yes	$2.5k	65.8¢	Won
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	Yes	$72	69.4¢	Won
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?	Yes	$177	88.0¢	Won

Will Nate Morris be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?Lost
Yes$9 @ 13.7¢
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?Lost
Yes$41 @ 6.6¢
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$335 @ 12.8¢
Will the Packers win the NFC Championship?Lost
Yes$29 @ 6.0¢
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?Lost
No$8.3k @ 45.4¢
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?Won
Yes$233 @ 68.0¢
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026?Lost
Yes$4.2k @ 6.0¢
Will Arsenal win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?Won
No$6 @ 72.1¢
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?Lost
Yes$2.2k @ 20.8¢
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?Won
No$8 @ 71.5¢
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?Lost
Yes$25 @ 7.1¢
International ODI: Sri Lanka vs England (Game 1)Lost
England$2 @ 2.8¢
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Lost
No$2.1k @ 40.9¢
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Won
Yes$7.9k @ 26.7¢
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?Won
No$135 @ 68.6¢
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?Won
No$1.5k @ 80.4¢
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?Lost
Yes$2 @ 33.8¢
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Lost
No$256 @ 33.5¢
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Won
Yes$265 @ 49.1¢
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?Lost
No$67 @ 65.8¢
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 61.4¢
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026?Won
No$293 @ 82.6¢
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 7.2¢
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?Won
No$120 @ 87.6¢
Will Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?Won
No$235 @ 72.8¢
Will Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?Lost
Yes$808 @ 19.5¢
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?Lost
Yes$22 @ 12.1¢
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?Won
No$352 @ 70.4¢
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?Lost
Yes$119 @ 22.5¢
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?Lost
No$1.2k @ 32.2¢
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?Won
Yes$195 @ 80.6¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$124 @ 8.0¢
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?Won
No$25.2k @ 43.7¢
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$3 @ 6.0¢
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?Won
No$1.2k @ 89.3¢
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?Lost
Yes$9 @ 18.0¢
Will Ken Paxton come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Won
Yes$14 @ 34.3¢
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 8.4¢
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?Lost
Yes$3.0k @ 18.9¢
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?Lost
Yes$145 @ 23.4¢
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?Lost
Yes$299 @ 20.8¢
Will Matthew Stafford win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?Lost
No$841 @ 62.0¢
Will Matthew Stafford win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?Won
Yes$2.5k @ 65.8¢
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?Won
Yes$72 @ 69.4¢
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?Won
Yes$177 @ 88.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$107	8.6¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$43	16.7¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$36	15.4¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$13	26.0¢
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$11	27.0¢
SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter?	Politics	Yes	$10	98.7¢
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$1	12.0¢

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$107 @ 8.6¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$43 @ 16.7¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$36 @ 15.4¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$13 @ 26.0¢
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$11 @ 27.0¢
SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter?Politics
Yes$10 @ 98.7¢
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$1 @ 12.0¢