← Smart money
0x33e0…7d46
ProfitableEdge
+38.0pp
ROI
+19%
Win rate
80% @ 42.2¢
Brier
0.353
Resolved
555
Avg size
$344
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 55% (6/11) | +21% | 11 |
| Politics | 33% (1/3) | -75% | 3 |
- Other11 bets
- Hit rate
- 55% (6/11)
- ROI
- +21%
- Politics3 bets
- Hit rate
- 33% (1/3)
- ROI
- -75%
Track record
50% hit · 7/14| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | $6.5k | 63.6¢ | Won |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | $34.4k | 47.4¢ | Lost |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Yes | $3.8k | 25.0¢ | Won |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Yes | $4.7k | 58.5¢ | Lost |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | $51.0k | 31.0¢ | Won |
| US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? | No | $914 | 50.6¢ | Lost |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | $3.1k | 41.0¢ | Won |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | No | $21.2k | 72.5¢ | Won |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | Yes | $59.3k | 40.9¢ | Lost |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | Yes | $2.6k | 7.0¢ | Lost |
| Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? | Yes | $19 | 11.0¢ | Won |
| US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $627 | 22.3¢ | Lost |
| Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? | Yes | $900 | 45.0¢ | Won |
| Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | $31 | 0.4¢ | Lost |
- Yes$6.5k @ 63.6¢
- No$34.4k @ 47.4¢
- Yes$3.8k @ 25.0¢
- Yes$4.7k @ 58.5¢
- Yes$51.0k @ 31.0¢
- No$914 @ 50.6¢
- Yes$3.1k @ 41.0¢
- No$21.2k @ 72.5¢
- Yes$59.3k @ 40.9¢
- Yes$2.6k @ 7.0¢
- Yes$19 @ 11.0¢
- Yes$627 @ 22.3¢
- Yes$900 @ 45.0¢
- Yes$31 @ 0.4¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? | Politics | No | $4.6k | 79.5¢ |
| Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? | Crypto | Yes | $500 | 25.0¢ |
| Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Politics | Yes | $271 | 2.1¢ |
| Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? | Politics | No | $27 | 80.0¢ |
- No$4.6k @ 79.5¢
- Yes$500 @ 25.0¢
- Yes$271 @ 2.1¢
- No$27 @ 80.0¢