0x33b3…d03d

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x33b3b135660b97b4ba65dad30bf07c7d2281d03d
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.4pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

62% @ 54.4¢

Brier

0.205

Resolved

1100

Avg size

$52

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	44% (47/106)	-13%	106
Sports	68% (15/22)	+26%	22
Tech	75% (3/4)	+16%	4
Politics	100% (2/2)	+41%	2
Culture	50% (1/2)	-59%	2
Economy	100% (1/1)	+627%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+34%	1

Other106 bets
Hit rate
44% (47/106)
ROI
-13%
Sports22 bets
Hit rate
68% (15/22)
ROI
+26%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+16%
Politics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+41%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-59%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+627%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+34%

Track record

51% hit · 70/138

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Uber say "Lucid" during earnings call?	Yes	$325	65.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 1?	Yes	$185	37.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?	No	$965	61.1¢	Won
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?	No	$39	39.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$69	88.7¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$937	18.3¢	Lost
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?	Yes	$144	34.0¢	Lost
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$3.7k	73.5¢	Won
Will Apple release a new version of the Apple TV by December 31?	Yes	$730	73.0¢	Lost
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?	No	$89	74.0¢	Lost
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?	Yes	$30	49.0¢	Won
Will Lamine Yamal finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$858	69.6¢	Won
Grok 4.20 released by January 15?	No	$708	81.7¢	Won
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?	Yes	$89	88.8¢	Won
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	No	$237	77.8¢	Won
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101?	Yes	$494	84.0¢	Won
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 22?	Yes	$26	62.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Low Cortisol (BO3) - Gamers Club Masters Playoffs	Low Cortisol	$26	36.5¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?	Yes	$435	87.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Smart" or "High IQ" during the Black History Month reception?	No	$37	38.0¢	Lost
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$738	14.4¢	Lost
LoL: Team WE vs FlyQuest (BO5) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Playoffs	Team WE	$418	83.7¢	Won
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28, 2026?	No	$242	79.0¢	Won
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 18?	No	$110	82.5¢	Lost
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?	No	$178	89.0¢	Won
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85%?	Yes	$83	32.6¢	Lost
Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max win the NOF1.ai competition?	Yes	$180	13.8¢	Won
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025?	No	$302	21.6¢	Lost
Will US GDP growth in 2025 be greater than 2.5%?	Yes	$5	11.5¢	Lost
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 20?	Yes	$257	35.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	Yes	$1.0k	79.8¢	Won
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$1	9.0¢	Lost
Will OpenAI’s GPT 5 lose the NOF1.ai competition?	Yes	$184	86.2¢	Won
Will Metamask daily perps revenue hit $100k in 2025?	Yes	$790	79.0¢	Lost
Will Wendy’s (WEN) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$290	58.0¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?	Yes	$72	36.0¢	Lost
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs LYON (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage	Invictus Gaming	$143	63.1¢	Won
Will Trump say "Kennedy" or "Autism" this week? (January 11)	No	$36	36.0¢	Lost
Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	$1.7k	87.1¢	Won
Will the United States win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	No	$187	61.3¢	Won
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?	No	$888	82.0¢	Won
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 22?	No	$42	67.8¢	Lost
Will Lionel Messi finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$104	67.0¢	Won
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?	Yes	$1.3k	62.0¢	Lost
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	$371	74.3¢	Won
Will there be at least 2050 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025?	No	$95	19.0¢	Lost
Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	$70	20.0¢	Lost
Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$2.8k	85.2¢	Won
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28?	Yes	$60	26.3¢	Won
Will Uber say "Lyft" during earnings call?	No	$355	71.0¢	Won

Will Uber say "Lucid" during earnings call?Lost
Yes$325 @ 65.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 1?Won
Yes$185 @ 37.0¢
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?Won
No$965 @ 61.1¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Lost
No$39 @ 39.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$69 @ 88.7¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$937 @ 18.3¢
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?Lost
Yes$144 @ 34.0¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
Yes$3.7k @ 73.5¢
Will Apple release a new version of the Apple TV by December 31?Lost
Yes$730 @ 73.0¢
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? Lost
No$89 @ 74.0¢
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?Won
Yes$30 @ 49.0¢
Will Lamine Yamal finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
Yes$858 @ 69.6¢
Grok 4.20 released by January 15?Won
No$708 @ 81.7¢
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?Won
Yes$89 @ 88.8¢
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?Won
No$237 @ 77.8¢
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101?Won
Yes$494 @ 84.0¢
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 22?Won
Yes$26 @ 62.0¢
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Low Cortisol (BO3) - Gamers Club Masters PlayoffsLost
Low Cortisol$26 @ 36.5¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Won
Yes$435 @ 87.0¢
Will Trump say "Smart" or "High IQ" during the Black History Month reception?Lost
No$37 @ 38.0¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$738 @ 14.4¢
LoL: Team WE vs FlyQuest (BO5) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational PlayoffsWon
Team WE$418 @ 83.7¢
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28, 2026?Won
No$242 @ 79.0¢
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 18?Lost
No$110 @ 82.5¢
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?Won
No$178 @ 89.0¢
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85%?Lost
Yes$83 @ 32.6¢
Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max win the NOF1.ai competition?Won
Yes$180 @ 13.8¢
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025?Lost
No$302 @ 21.6¢
Will US GDP growth in 2025 be greater than 2.5%?Lost
Yes$5 @ 11.5¢
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 20?Won
Yes$257 @ 35.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 79.8¢
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$1 @ 9.0¢
Will OpenAI’s GPT 5 lose the NOF1.ai competition?Won
Yes$184 @ 86.2¢
Will Metamask daily perps revenue hit $100k in 2025?Lost
Yes$790 @ 79.0¢
Will Wendy’s (WEN) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$290 @ 58.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?Lost
Yes$72 @ 36.0¢
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs LYON (BO3) - Worlds Group StageWon
Invictus Gaming$143 @ 63.1¢
Will Trump say "Kennedy" or "Autism" this week? (January 11)Lost
No$36 @ 36.0¢
Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
No$1.7k @ 87.1¢
Will the United States win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Won
No$187 @ 61.3¢
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?Won
No$888 @ 82.0¢
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 22?Lost
No$42 @ 67.8¢
Will Lionel Messi finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
Yes$104 @ 67.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 62.0¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Won
No$371 @ 74.3¢
Will there be at least 2050 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025?Lost
No$95 @ 19.0¢
Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
No$70 @ 20.0¢
Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
Yes$2.8k @ 85.2¢
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28?Won
Yes$60 @ 26.3¢
Will Uber say "Lyft" during earnings call?Won
No$355 @ 71.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Tech	Yes	$2.1k	69.3¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$1.9k	53.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$1.2k	24.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$1.1k	45.0¢
Will Apple purchase memory CXMT chips in 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$615	60.8¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Business	No	$608	18.6¢
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	Crypto	No	$312	27.5¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$273	91.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$178	50.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$125	25.0¢
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?	Tech	No	$123	75.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$97	9.7¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$94	81.0¢
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Tech	No	$37	61.0¢
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by December 31?	Crypto	Yes	$29	90.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Tech	No	$1	54.4¢

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Tech
Yes$2.1k @ 69.3¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?Culture
Yes$1.9k @ 53.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Tech
Yes$1.2k @ 24.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Tech
Yes$1.1k @ 45.0¢
Will Apple purchase memory CXMT chips in 2026?Geopolitics
No$615 @ 60.8¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Business
No$608 @ 18.6¢
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?Crypto
No$312 @ 27.5¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$273 @ 91.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$178 @ 50.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$125 @ 25.0¢
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?Tech
No$123 @ 75.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?Tech
Yes$97 @ 9.7¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Tech
Yes$94 @ 81.0¢
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?Tech
No$37 @ 61.0¢
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by December 31?Crypto
Yes$29 @ 90.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Tech
No$1 @ 54.4¢