0x3373…3716

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x33739438875aee79e98a26f87320d984f0703716
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.1pp

ROI

+18%

Win rate

56% @ 49.0¢

Brier

0.181

Resolved

2075

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	53% (270/514)	+29%	514
Other	34% (130/382)	+25%	382
Tech	65% (86/133)	+15%	133
Geopolitics	49% (35/71)	+6%	71
Sports	35% (20/57)	-15%	57
Science	79% (42/53)	+42%	53
Culture	47% (16/34)	+23%	34
Economy	70% (16/23)	-0%	23
Business	36% (5/14)	-16%	14
Crypto	50% (4/8)	+131%	8

Politics514 bets
Hit rate
53% (270/514)
ROI
+29%
Other382 bets
Hit rate
34% (130/382)
ROI
+25%
Tech133 bets
Hit rate
65% (86/133)
ROI
+15%
Geopolitics71 bets
Hit rate
49% (35/71)
ROI
+6%
Sports57 bets
Hit rate
35% (20/57)
ROI
-15%
Science53 bets
Hit rate
79% (42/53)
ROI
+42%
Culture34 bets
Hit rate
47% (16/34)
ROI
+23%
Economy23 bets
Hit rate
70% (16/23)
ROI
-0%
Business14 bets
Hit rate
36% (5/14)
ROI
-16%
Crypto8 bets
Hit rate
50% (4/8)
ROI
+131%

Track record

48% hit · 624/1289

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 65% or higher?	No	$6	79.0¢	Lost
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$8	39.9¢	Lost
Will Drake headline Coachella 2027?	No	$1	53.0¢	Won
Will Andy Burnham say "Trump" during the next PMQ?	No	$8	74.6¢	Won
Will Andy Burnham say "Reform" during the next PMQ?	No	$3	48.0¢	Lost
Will SZA headline Coachella 2027?	Yes	$105	62.3¢	Won
Will Tame Impala headline Coachella 2027?	Yes	$227	65.3¢	Won
Will Dua Lipa headline Coachella 2027?	Yes	$1	58.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	$1	5.2¢	Lost
Will Mai Vang win the CA-07 House seat?	Yes	$1	34.9¢	Lost
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$15	67.0¢	Lost
Will "Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® 4" be the #1 Steam Weekly Top Seller for the week of November 3 - November 10, 2026?	No	$0	6.0¢	Lost
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	No	$4	48.0¢	Won
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?	Yes	$1	54.0¢	Won
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	$1	33.0¢	Lost
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	70.0¢	Won
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	$1	42.0¢	Lost
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	Yes	$4	63.4¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?	No	$4	45.0¢	Won
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 19, 2026?	No	$4	46.0¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $60 by June 30, 2027?	No	$15	80.0¢	Won
Will Ondřej Tichý be the next Mayor of Pardubice?	Yes	$4	54.0¢	Won
Will Jan Nadrchal be the next Mayor of Pardubice?	No	$16	90.0¢	Won
Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	$2	59.0¢	Won
Will Miroslava Ferancová be the next Mayor of Olomouc?	No	$3	64.6¢	Won
Will Marek Zelenka be the next Mayor of Olomouc?	Yes	$3	58.3¢	Won
Will Alfredo Willy Benavente Godoy win the next Arequipa mayoral elections?	Yes	$2	22.0¢	Lost
76ers vs. Pistons	Pistons	$2	65.0¢	Lost
Will Rare Earths Americas' market cap be between $300M and $400M at market close on IPO day?	No	$4	81.8¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	$1	20.0¢	Lost
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$3	8.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 1?	No	$3	50.6¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Christmas" in May?	Yes	$18	95.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 30?	No	$4	35.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on August 30?	No	$1	51.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	$0	46.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	$2	19.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	$5	57.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 30?	No	$5	17.8¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	$1	14.3¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	$3	59.9¢	Lost
Will any contestant beat Luke Littler?	No	$2	42.0¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	$9	25.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	$6	16.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 30?	No	$1	28.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	$2	28.0¢	Lost
Spread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-1.5)	Al Hilal Saudi Club	$0	60.4¢	Lost
XRP Up or Down - August 30, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	$2	8.5¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	$2	21.4¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Transgender" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	No	$3	47.0¢	Lost

Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 65% or higher?Lost
No$6 @ 79.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 39.9¢
Will Drake headline Coachella 2027?Won
No$1 @ 53.0¢
Will Andy Burnham say "Trump" during the next PMQ?Won
No$8 @ 74.6¢
Will Andy Burnham say "Reform" during the next PMQ?Lost
No$3 @ 48.0¢
Will SZA headline Coachella 2027?Won
Yes$105 @ 62.3¢
Will Tame Impala headline Coachella 2027?Won
Yes$227 @ 65.3¢
Will Dua Lipa headline Coachella 2027?Won
Yes$1 @ 58.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?Lost
No$1 @ 5.2¢
Will Mai Vang win the CA-07 House seat?Lost
Yes$1 @ 34.9¢
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?Lost
Yes$15 @ 67.0¢
Will "Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® 4" be the #1 Steam Weekly Top Seller for the week of November 3 - November 10, 2026?Lost
No$0 @ 6.0¢
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?Won
No$4 @ 48.0¢
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?Won
Yes$1 @ 54.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 33.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 70.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 42.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?Won
Yes$4 @ 63.4¢
Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?Won
No$4 @ 45.0¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 19, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 46.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $60 by June 30, 2027?Won
No$15 @ 80.0¢
Will Ondřej Tichý be the next Mayor of Pardubice?Won
Yes$4 @ 54.0¢
Will Jan Nadrchal be the next Mayor of Pardubice?Won
No$16 @ 90.0¢
Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?Won
Yes$2 @ 59.0¢
Will Miroslava Ferancová be the next Mayor of Olomouc?Won
No$3 @ 64.6¢
Will Marek Zelenka be the next Mayor of Olomouc?Won
Yes$3 @ 58.3¢
Will Alfredo Willy Benavente Godoy win the next Arequipa mayoral elections?Lost
Yes$2 @ 22.0¢
76ers vs. PistonsLost
Pistons$2 @ 65.0¢
Will Rare Earths Americas' market cap be between $300M and $400M at market close on IPO day?Lost
No$4 @ 81.8¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 6:20AM-6:25AM ETLost
Up$1 @ 20.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 8.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 1?Lost
No$3 @ 50.6¢
Will Trump say "Christmas" in May?Lost
Yes$18 @ 95.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 30?Lost
No$4 @ 35.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on August 30?Lost
No$1 @ 51.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 12:55AM-1:00AM ETLost
Up$0 @ 46.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ETLost
Up$2 @ 19.0¢
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" at The Villages on May 1?Lost
Yes$5 @ 57.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 30?Lost
No$5 @ 17.8¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 1:20AM-1:25AM ETLost
Up$1 @ 14.3¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ETLost
Down$3 @ 59.9¢
Will any contestant beat Luke Littler?Lost
No$2 @ 42.0¢
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?Lost
No$9 @ 25.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 7:35AM-7:40AM ETLost
Down$6 @ 16.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 30?Lost
No$1 @ 28.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 7:10AM-7:15AM ETLost
Down$2 @ 28.0¢
Spread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-1.5)Lost
Al Hilal Saudi Club$0 @ 60.4¢
XRP Up or Down - August 30, 5:00PM-5:15PM ETLost
Up$2 @ 8.5¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 1:05AM-1:10AM ETLost
Down$2 @ 21.4¢
Will Trump say "Transgender" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?Lost
No$3 @ 47.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Politics	No	$262	30.9¢
Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Politics	Opp.	$240	61.7¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Politics	No	$228	58.1¢
Will Ra'am be in the next Israeli government?	Politics	Yes	$155	26.5¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$84	75.7¢
Will there be exactly 7 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$79	22.8¢
Will Yashar be in the next Israeli government?	Politics	Yes	$77	49.7¢
Will Google run an Ad during Super Bowl LXI?	Sports	Yes	$71	52.8¢
Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$63	28.5¢
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?	Politics	No	$61	73.3¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a presidential run by June 30, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$60	36.8¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by November 30?	Politics	No	$56	35.4¢
Will Amcha Yisrael win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Politics	Yes	$55	41.7¢
Will Yoram Cohen be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?	Politics	No	$48	79.5¢
Riksdag approves Swedish Prime Minister by November 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$41	46.0¢
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?	Politics	No	$41	82.7¢
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$35	2.0¢
Will National Party be part of the next Government of New Zealand?	Politics	No	$34	23.5¢
Will Kathy Hochul underperform Kamala in New York?	Politics	No	$34	60.2¢
Will Google be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Tech	Yes	$33	43.8¢
Will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	No	$32	38.0¢
Will Sergio Massa win the Peronist nomination to contest the 2027 Argentine presidential election?	Politics	No	$32	73.0¢
Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$32	59.8¢
Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?	Tech	Yes	$32	54.3¢
Will Jynxzi win Gamer of the Year at the 2026 Streamer Awards?	Culture	Yes	$31	62.2¢
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$31	44.1¢
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Crypto	Yes	$28	74.6¢
Will Geno Ploeger be the runner-up of AGT Season 21?	Culture	No	$28	55.9¢
Will Meta be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$27	49.4¢
Will Donald Trump visit New Mexico in 2026?	Politics	No	$25	73.4¢

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Politics
No$262 @ 30.9¢
Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?Politics
Opp.$240 @ 61.7¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?Politics
No$228 @ 58.1¢
Will Ra'am be in the next Israeli government?Politics
Yes$155 @ 26.5¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$84 @ 75.7¢
Will there be exactly 7 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?Politics
Yes$79 @ 22.8¢
Will Yashar be in the next Israeli government?Politics
Yes$77 @ 49.7¢
Will Google run an Ad during Super Bowl LXI?Sports
Yes$71 @ 52.8¢
Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?Politics
Yes$63 @ 28.5¢
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?Politics
No$61 @ 73.3¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a presidential run by June 30, 2027?Politics
Yes$60 @ 36.8¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by November 30?Politics
No$56 @ 35.4¢
Will Amcha Yisrael win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
Yes$55 @ 41.7¢
Will Yoram Cohen be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?Politics
No$48 @ 79.5¢
Riksdag approves Swedish Prime Minister by November 30, 2026?Politics
No$41 @ 46.0¢
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?Politics
No$41 @ 82.7¢
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?Tech
Yes$35 @ 2.0¢
Will National Party be part of the next Government of New Zealand?Politics
No$34 @ 23.5¢
Will Kathy Hochul underperform Kamala in New York?Politics
No$34 @ 60.2¢
Will Google be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026?Tech
Yes$33 @ 43.8¢
Will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
No$32 @ 38.0¢
Will Sergio Massa win the Peronist nomination to contest the 2027 Argentine presidential election?Politics
No$32 @ 73.0¢
Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$32 @ 59.8¢
Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?Tech
Yes$32 @ 54.3¢
Will Jynxzi win Gamer of the Year at the 2026 Streamer Awards?Culture
Yes$31 @ 62.2¢
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Tech
Yes$31 @ 44.1¢
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?Crypto
Yes$28 @ 74.6¢
Will Geno Ploeger be the runner-up of AGT Season 21?Culture
No$28 @ 55.9¢
Will Meta be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$27 @ 49.4¢
Will Donald Trump visit New Mexico in 2026?Politics
No$25 @ 73.4¢