0x3373…3716

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x33739438875aee79e98a26f87320d984f0703716
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.9pp

ROI

+32%

Win rate

51% @ 47.1¢

Brier

0.196

Resolved

2021

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	53% (142/268)	+35%	268
Other	50% (124/249)	+36%	249
Sports	32% (14/44)	-26%	44
Geopolitics	46% (19/41)	+14%	41
Tech	69% (18/26)	+27%	26
Culture	43% (3/7)	-28%	7
Science	50% (3/6)	-56%	6
Crypto	60% (3/5)	+142%	5
Economy	75% (3/4)	-39%	4
Business	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics268 bets
Hit rate
53% (142/268)
ROI
+35%
Other249 bets
Hit rate
50% (124/249)
ROI
+36%
Sports44 bets
Hit rate
32% (14/44)
ROI
-26%
Geopolitics41 bets
Hit rate
46% (19/41)
ROI
+14%
Tech26 bets
Hit rate
69% (18/26)
ROI
+27%
Culture7 bets
Hit rate
43% (3/7)
ROI
-28%
Science6 bets
Hit rate
50% (3/6)
ROI
-56%
Crypto5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
+142%
Economy4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
-39%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

51% hit · 329/651

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will “Confessions II – The Film” by Madonna win Video of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	Yes	$1	26.0¢	Lost
Will Madonna win Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	Yes	$3	16.4¢	Won
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$7	2.0¢	Lost
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$28	88.8¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	Yes	$10	52.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?	Yes	$35	23.0¢	Lost
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	No	$4	10.1¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$25	14.0¢	Lost
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?	Yes	$21	46.6¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	Yes	$25	75.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	$36	20.1¢	Lost
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 Croatia?	Yes	$10	12.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	$27	89.9¢	Won
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$4	41.0¢	Won
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?	Yes	$16	14.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$10	78.0¢	Won
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on August 31?	No	$1	36.0¢	Lost
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	Yes	$5	77.2¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	Yes	$0	60.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	$3	46.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$16	54.8¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	No	$8	41.0¢	Lost
Will "Anya Forger (SPY x FAMILY Season 3)" win Best Anime "Must Protect At All Costs" Character at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?	Yes	$17	85.0¢	Won
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in May?	No	$20	40.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 17?	Yes	$5	69.0¢	Lost
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	No	$12	70.0¢	Won
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?	No	$36	32.0¢	Lost
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	Yes	$30	14.6¢	Lost
Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$4	10.6¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$9	16.4¢	Lost
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	$18	84.5¢	Won
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 Croatia?	Yes	$9	7.0¢	Lost
Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet?	No	$7	49.6¢	Won
Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet?	Yes	$10	65.0¢	Lost
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Alex Pereira	$10	51.0¢	Lost
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$37	36.6¢	Won
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	$16	9.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$58	69.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$235	29.1¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	$10	64.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$8	42.0¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$8	67.0¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	No	$10	53.1¢	Won
Will Dell say "Nvidia" during earnings call?	Yes	$17	83.0¢	Won
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$8	78.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$5	77.0¢	Won
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	Yes	$15	68.3¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	Yes	$22	66.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$45	56.2¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$75	27.3¢	Won

Will “Confessions II – The Film” by Madonna win Video of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?Lost
Yes$1 @ 26.0¢
Will Madonna win Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?Won
Yes$3 @ 16.4¢
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$7 @ 2.0¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$28 @ 88.8¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Lost
Yes$10 @ 52.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?Lost
Yes$35 @ 23.0¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Lost
No$4 @ 10.1¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$25 @ 14.0¢
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?Won
Yes$21 @ 46.6¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?Lost
Yes$25 @ 75.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$36 @ 20.1¢
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 Croatia?Lost
Yes$10 @ 12.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Won
No$27 @ 89.9¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Won
Yes$4 @ 41.0¢
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?Lost
Yes$16 @ 14.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$10 @ 78.0¢
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on August 31?Lost
No$1 @ 36.0¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?Won
Yes$5 @ 77.2¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Lost
Yes$0 @ 60.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 46.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Won
Yes$16 @ 54.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$8 @ 41.0¢
Will "Anya Forger (SPY x FAMILY Season 3)" win Best Anime "Must Protect At All Costs" Character at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?Won
Yes$17 @ 85.0¢
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in May?Lost
No$20 @ 40.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 17?Lost
Yes$5 @ 69.0¢
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Won
No$12 @ 70.0¢
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?Lost
No$36 @ 32.0¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Lost
Yes$30 @ 14.6¢
Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026? Lost
Yes$4 @ 10.6¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 16.4¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Won
No$18 @ 84.5¢
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 Croatia?Lost
Yes$9 @ 7.0¢
Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet?Won
No$7 @ 49.6¢
Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet?Lost
Yes$10 @ 65.0¢
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)Lost
Alex Pereira$10 @ 51.0¢
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$37 @ 36.6¢
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Lost
Yes$16 @ 9.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$58 @ 69.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$235 @ 29.1¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$10 @ 64.0¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$8 @ 42.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$8 @ 67.0¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Won
No$10 @ 53.1¢
Will Dell say "Nvidia" during earnings call?Won
Yes$17 @ 83.0¢
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?Won
Yes$8 @ 78.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 77.0¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Won
Yes$15 @ 68.3¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?Lost
Yes$22 @ 66.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$45 @ 56.2¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$75 @ 27.3¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$229	28.8¢
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	No	$213	79.1¢
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	Politics	Yes	$151	88.9¢
Will Reservists and New Economic Party win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Politics	No	$140	70.8¢
Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?	Politics	Yes	$111	61.2¢
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$60	87.7¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested by December 31?	Politics	No	$57	94.3¢
Will Ra'am win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Politics	Yes	$45	82.5¢
Will Amcha Yisrael win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Politics	Yes	$39	52.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Politics	Yes	$31	84.5¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?	Politics	No	$27	40.0¢
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$22	52.8¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Politics	No	$19	35.1¢
Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$18	46.6¢
Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Tech	No	$17	74.0¢
Will Ra'am win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Politics	No	$17	84.9¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?	Tech	Yes	$16	87.1¢
Will Yisrael Beiteinu win fewer than 6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Politics	No	$16	78.5¢
Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$15	44.0¢
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C?	Politics	No	$14	82.8¢
Will Trump Airport become law this year?	Politics	Yes	$12	47.5¢
Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,125,000 and $1,161,000 on September 30?	Economy	Yes	$12	43.9¢
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$11	71.3¢
Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?	Tech	No	$11	32.4¢
Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$11	64.7¢
Will Alibaba be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$10	59.1¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	Tech	No	$10	83.0¢
Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 21?	Tech	Yes	$10	63.0¢
Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$10	30.7¢
Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$9	37.6¢

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$229 @ 28.8¢
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
No$213 @ 79.1¢
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?Politics
Yes$151 @ 88.9¢
Will Reservists and New Economic Party win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
No$140 @ 70.8¢
Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?Politics
Yes$111 @ 61.2¢
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$60 @ 87.7¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested by December 31?Politics
No$57 @ 94.3¢
Will Ra'am win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
Yes$45 @ 82.5¢
Will Amcha Yisrael win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
Yes$39 @ 52.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Politics
Yes$31 @ 84.5¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?Politics
No$27 @ 40.0¢
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$22 @ 52.8¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Politics
No$19 @ 35.1¢
Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$18 @ 46.6¢
Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech
No$17 @ 74.0¢
Will Ra'am win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
No$17 @ 84.9¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?Tech
Yes$16 @ 87.1¢
Will Yisrael Beiteinu win fewer than 6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
No$16 @ 78.5¢
Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$15 @ 44.0¢
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C?Politics
No$14 @ 82.8¢
Will Trump Airport become law this year?Politics
Yes$12 @ 47.5¢
Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,125,000 and $1,161,000 on September 30?Economy
Yes$12 @ 43.9¢
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?Politics
Yes$11 @ 71.3¢
Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?Tech
No$11 @ 32.4¢
Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$11 @ 64.7¢
Will Alibaba be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$10 @ 59.1¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?Tech
No$10 @ 83.0¢
Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 21?Tech
Yes$10 @ 63.0¢
Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$10 @ 30.7¢
Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$9 @ 37.6¢