← Smart money
0x3183…c5eb
SharpEdge
+18.7pp
ROI
+27%
Win rate
79% @ 60.7¢
Brier
0.075
Resolved
97
Avg size
$43
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tech | 100% (3/3) | +56% | 3 |
| Other | 100% (3/3) | +27% | 3 |
| Crypto | 100% (3/3) | +37% | 3 |
| Sports | 50% (1/2) | -91% | 2 |
| Politics | 0% (0/2) | -100% | 2 |
- Tech3 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (3/3)
- ROI
- +56%
- Other3 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (3/3)
- ROI
- +27%
- Crypto3 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (3/3)
- ROI
- +37%
- Sports2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- -91%
- Politics2 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/2)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
77% hit · 10/13| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? | Yes | $45 | 76.1¢ | Won |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1? | No | $168 | 50.7¢ | Won |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? | Yes | $52 | 85.4¢ | Won |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? | No | $4 | 88.0¢ | Won |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | $52 | 2.3¢ | Lost |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | No | $1.3k | 82.6¢ | Won |
| Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | $4 | 86.0¢ | Won |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? | Yes | $362 | 12.9¢ | Lost |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $801 | 66.6¢ | Won |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? | Yes | $37 | 1.6¢ | Lost |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $1.1k | 63.2¢ | Won |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? | Yes | $25 | 60.0¢ | Won |
| Will Microstrategy announce selling any Bitcoin July 7-13? | No | $306 | 81.0¢ | Won |
- Yes$45 @ 76.1¢
- No$168 @ 50.7¢
- Yes$52 @ 85.4¢
- No$4 @ 88.0¢
- Yes$52 @ 2.3¢
- No$1.3k @ 82.6¢
- Yes$4 @ 86.0¢
- Yes$362 @ 12.9¢
- Yes$801 @ 66.6¢
- Yes$37 @ 1.6¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 63.2¢
- Yes$25 @ 60.0¢
- No$306 @ 81.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic vs OpenAI — greater valuation growth August 2026 | — | Anthropic | $281 | 62.3¢ |
| Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $900B and $1.00T at the end of September 2026? | — | Yes | $104 | 37.3¢ |
| Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $800B and $900B at the end of September 2026? | — | No | $99 | 51.4¢ |
- Anthropic$281 @ 62.3¢
- Yes$104 @ 37.3¢
- No$99 @ 51.4¢