0x312b…cafe

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x312bcca3bc77bdc1d37dc6db5b9c1493de61cafe
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+10.1pp

ROI

+30%

Win rate

59% @ 49.4¢

Brier

0.188

Resolved

1170

Avg size

$129

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	49% (44/89)	+29%	89
Politics	40% (2/5)	+32%	5
Geopolitics	25% (1/4)	+35%	4
Sports	100% (1/1)	+114%	1

Other89 bets
Hit rate
49% (44/89)
ROI
+29%
Politics5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
+32%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
+35%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+114%

Track record

48% hit · 48/99

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Iran target Iraq by October 31, 2026?	No	$117	47.0¢	Lost
Will Iran target Iraq by October 15, 2026?	No	$250	57.5¢	Lost
Will Russia recognize Syrian government by March 31?	No	$14	40.0¢	Lost
US government shutdown by October 1?	No	$32	32.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$570	57.0¢	Lost
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?	No	$52	27.1¢	Lost
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?	No	$3.6k	44.3¢	Lost
US-EU trade deal before June?	No	$490	49.0¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $85 by end of February?	No	$861	66.2¢	Lost
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?	No	$3.0k	62.5¢	Won
Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before May?	No	$720	48.0¢	Won
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?	No	$2.2k	48.2¢	Won
Israel military response against Iran in October?	No	$2.9k	17.7¢	Lost
Israel military response against Iran in October?	Yes	$3.2k	76.8¢	Won
Israel retaliates against Houthis in March?	Yes	$50	20.0¢	Lost
Will Trump recognize Somaliland in 2025?	No	$2.1k	85.8¢	Won
Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30?	No	$959	51.3¢	Lost
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$175	3.0¢	Lost
Will Türkiye recognize Syrian government by March 31?	Yes	$1.3k	64.0¢	Won
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?	No	$4.5k	59.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	No	$360	36.0¢	Won
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?	No	$2.3k	73.5¢	Won
Israel military action on Yemen by Friday?	No	$50	5.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	No	$676	33.8¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump be named in Epstein files?	No	$875	87.2¢	Lost
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	$24	25.0¢	Lost
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?	No	$206	18.8¢	Lost
Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 7?	Yes	$74	49.0¢	Lost
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?	No	$3.5k	35.7¢	Won
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?	No	$10.0k	63.0¢	Won
More EU sanctions on Russia by September 30?	No	$679	62.0¢	Won
50% copper tariff in effect by August 1?	No	$27	36.0¢	Lost
50% copper tariff in effect by August 1?	Yes	$293	61.0¢	Won
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025?	No	$2.3k	38.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	$2.5k	21.1¢	Lost
Will PSG beat Inter Milan in the first half?	Yes	$26	32.0¢	Won
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2025?	Yes	$792	26.3¢	Lost
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025?	No	$3.2k	63.5¢	Won
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?	No	$6.9k	36.1¢	Won
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?	Yes	$4.0k	31.5¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	No	$714	28.6¢	Lost
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	$7	6.7¢	Lost
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?	No	$4.5k	59.5¢	Won
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$141	70.5¢	Won
54% tariff goes into effect on China by Wednesday?	No	$65	13.0¢	Lost
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$25	25.0¢	Lost
Will another country recognize Somaliland by March 31?	No	$2.1k	74.4¢	Won
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$664	46.7¢	Won
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?	Yes	$170	17.0¢	Lost
India military action against Pakistan before June?	No	$676	55.6¢	Lost

Will Iran target Iraq by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$117 @ 47.0¢
Will Iran target Iraq by October 15, 2026?Lost
No$250 @ 57.5¢
Will Russia recognize Syrian government by March 31?Lost
No$14 @ 40.0¢
US government shutdown by October 1?Lost
No$32 @ 32.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$570 @ 57.0¢
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?Lost
No$52 @ 27.1¢
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?Lost
No$3.6k @ 44.3¢
US-EU trade deal before June?Won
No$490 @ 49.0¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $85 by end of February?Lost
No$861 @ 66.2¢
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?Won
No$3.0k @ 62.5¢
Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before May?Won
No$720 @ 48.0¢
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?Won
No$2.2k @ 48.2¢
Israel military response against Iran in October?Lost
No$2.9k @ 17.7¢
Israel military response against Iran in October?Won
Yes$3.2k @ 76.8¢
Israel retaliates against Houthis in March?Lost
Yes$50 @ 20.0¢
Will Trump recognize Somaliland in 2025?Won
No$2.1k @ 85.8¢
Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30?Lost
No$959 @ 51.3¢
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$175 @ 3.0¢
Will Türkiye recognize Syrian government by March 31?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 64.0¢
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?Lost
No$4.5k @ 59.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Won
No$360 @ 36.0¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?Won
No$2.3k @ 73.5¢
Israel military action on Yemen by Friday?Lost
No$50 @ 5.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
No$676 @ 33.8¢
Will Donald Trump be named in Epstein files?Lost
No$875 @ 87.2¢
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?Lost
Yes$24 @ 25.0¢
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?Lost
No$206 @ 18.8¢
Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 7?Lost
Yes$74 @ 49.0¢
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?Won
No$3.5k @ 35.7¢
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?Won
No$10.0k @ 63.0¢
More EU sanctions on Russia by September 30?Won
No$679 @ 62.0¢
50% copper tariff in effect by August 1?Lost
No$27 @ 36.0¢
50% copper tariff in effect by August 1?Won
Yes$293 @ 61.0¢
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025?Lost
No$2.3k @ 38.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Lost
No$2.5k @ 21.1¢
Will PSG beat Inter Milan in the first half? Won
Yes$26 @ 32.0¢
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2025?Lost
Yes$792 @ 26.3¢
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025?Won
No$3.2k @ 63.5¢
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?Won
No$6.9k @ 36.1¢
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?Lost
Yes$4.0k @ 31.5¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?Lost
No$714 @ 28.6¢
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$7 @ 6.7¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?Won
No$4.5k @ 59.5¢
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?Won
Yes$141 @ 70.5¢
54% tariff goes into effect on China by Wednesday?Lost
No$65 @ 13.0¢
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$25 @ 25.0¢
Will another country recognize Somaliland by March 31?Won
No$2.1k @ 74.4¢
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?Won
Yes$664 @ 46.7¢
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$170 @ 17.0¢
India military action against Pakistan before June?Lost
No$676 @ 55.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?	Politics	No	$2.5k	76.5¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$850	71.9¢
Will Ethiopia target Eritrea by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$101	58.6¢

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?Politics
No$2.5k @ 76.5¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$850 @ 71.9¢
Will Ethiopia target Eritrea by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$101 @ 58.6¢