0x30f9…fbfc

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x30f91b6df5a62ab2e504045e25fd449a23affbfc
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+0.7pp

ROI

+74%

Win rate

9% @ 8.1¢

Brier

0.059

Resolved

5395

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	19% (27/140)	+80%	140
Politics	42% (51/122)	+106%	122
Tech	21% (14/66)	+70%	66
Geopolitics	24% (15/62)	-30%	62
Sports	20% (1/5)	-37%	5
Science	50% (1/2)	+212%	2
Economy	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Culture	50% (1/2)	+6%	2
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+92%	1

Other140 bets
Hit rate
19% (27/140)
ROI
+80%
Politics122 bets
Hit rate
42% (51/122)
ROI
+106%
Tech66 bets
Hit rate
21% (14/66)
ROI
+70%
Geopolitics62 bets
Hit rate
24% (15/62)
ROI
-30%
Sports5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
-37%
Science2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+212%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+6%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+92%

Track record

28% hit · 111/402

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of May 4 2026?	Yes	$74	4.2¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	No	$2	1.3¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	Yes	$8	0.5¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$38	68.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	$5	1.5¢	Lost
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	$8	0.3¢	Lost
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	Yes	$4	9.0¢	Lost
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	$36	0.4¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$4	0.1¢	Lost
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	No	$13	1.8¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of May 4 2026?	Yes	$72	4.1¢	Lost
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$19	0.2¢	Lost
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?	No	$7	0.6¢	Lost
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	No	$21	22.3¢	Won
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	Yes	$14	2.2¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	Yes	$54	1.2¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?	Yes	$86	1.3¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June?	No	$7	2.5¢	Lost
Will Moonshot have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?	Yes	$9	0.8¢	Lost
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $109 on May 4?	Yes	$73	11.8¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$407	15.7¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$51	24.6¢	Won
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	$20	0.2¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?	No	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	No	$5	64.0¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	Yes	$7	2.7¢	Lost
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$43	1.3¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$87	70.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$105	4.7¢	Lost
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?	Yes	$25	3.2¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$444	7.8¢	Lost
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?	Yes	$9	0.3¢	Lost
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?	No	$8	0.5¢	Lost
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	$13	0.4¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	No	$5	64.0¢	Won
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	Yes	$21	1.5¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of May 4 2026?	No	$70	2.4¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of May 4 2026?	Yes	$1	15.0¢	Won
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?	No	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	No	$18	53.0¢	Won
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$119	1.8¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of May 4 2026?	No	$67	2.3¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of May 4 2026?	Yes	$4	24.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	No	$36	0.3¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$16	8.5¢	Won
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	No	$32	0.6¢	Lost
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?	Yes	$13	0.6¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?	No	$23	82.1¢	Won

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of May 4 2026?Lost
Yes$74 @ 4.2¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 1.3¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Lost
Yes$8 @ 0.5¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$38 @ 68.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.5¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Lost
Yes$8 @ 0.3¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Lost
Yes$4 @ 9.0¢
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Lost
Yes$36 @ 0.4¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.1¢
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$13 @ 1.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of May 4 2026?Lost
Yes$72 @ 4.1¢
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
Yes$19 @ 0.2¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?Lost
No$7 @ 0.6¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?Won
No$21 @ 22.3¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$14 @ 2.2¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?Lost
Yes$54 @ 1.2¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?Lost
Yes$86 @ 1.3¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June?Lost
No$7 @ 2.5¢
Will Moonshot have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Lost
Yes$9 @ 0.8¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $109 on May 4?Lost
Yes$73 @ 11.8¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
No$407 @ 15.7¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$51 @ 24.6¢
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Lost
Yes$20 @ 0.2¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?Lost
No$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?Won
No$5 @ 64.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?Lost
Yes$7 @ 2.7¢
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
Yes$43 @ 1.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$87 @ 70.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$105 @ 4.7¢
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?Lost
Yes$25 @ 3.2¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$444 @ 7.8¢
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?Lost
Yes$9 @ 0.3¢
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Lost
No$8 @ 0.5¢
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$13 @ 0.4¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Won
No$5 @ 64.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Lost
Yes$21 @ 1.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of May 4 2026?Lost
No$70 @ 2.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of May 4 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 15.0¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 0.1¢
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?Won
No$18 @ 53.0¢
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Lost
Yes$119 @ 1.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of May 4 2026?Lost
No$67 @ 2.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of May 4 2026?Won
Yes$4 @ 24.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Lost
No$36 @ 0.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
Yes$16 @ 8.5¢
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Lost
No$32 @ 0.6¢
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?Lost
Yes$13 @ 0.6¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?Won
No$23 @ 82.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$631	1.8¢
Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by September 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$289	39.2¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Politics	No	$220	69.6¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?	Culture	Yes	$171	48.7¢
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$154	0.7¢
US military draft authorized in 2026?	Politics	No	$154	80.0¢
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$145	0.7¢
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $5B in 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$131	52.8¢
Will US annex any territory in 2026?	Politics	No	$122	80.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$116	41.0¢
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?	Politics	No	$102	72.7¢
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$101	0.3¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	No	$100	76.1¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$97	88.1¢
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$89	0.3¢
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$81	84.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$73	50.0¢
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	Tech	OpenAI	$67	23.1¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?	Culture	Yes	$67	5.5¢
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$65	58.5¢
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$65	8.6¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?	Culture	Yes	$63	26.1¢
Is Earth flat?	Culture	No	$62	97.0¢
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$60	1.0¢
China coup attempt before 2027?	Politics	No	$59	84.9¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Politics	No	$55	49.1¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$51	53.3¢
Iran nuclear test before 2027?	Politics	No	$45	65.9¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Politics	No	$41	64.0¢
Ebola pandemic in 2026?	Science	No	$40	83.3¢

Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
Yes$631 @ 1.8¢
Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by September 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$289 @ 39.2¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
No$220 @ 69.6¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?Culture
Yes$171 @ 48.7¢
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$154 @ 0.7¢
US military draft authorized in 2026?Politics
No$154 @ 80.0¢
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$145 @ 0.7¢
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $5B in 2026?Crypto
Yes$131 @ 52.8¢
Will US annex any territory in 2026?Politics
No$122 @ 80.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$116 @ 41.0¢
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?Politics
No$102 @ 72.7¢
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$101 @ 0.3¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
No$100 @ 76.1¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$97 @ 88.1¢
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$89 @ 0.3¢
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$81 @ 84.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$73 @ 50.0¢
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?Tech
OpenAI$67 @ 23.1¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?Culture
Yes$67 @ 5.5¢
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$65 @ 58.5¢
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$65 @ 8.6¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?Culture
Yes$63 @ 26.1¢
Is Earth flat?Culture
No$62 @ 97.0¢
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$60 @ 1.0¢
China coup attempt before 2027?Politics
No$59 @ 84.9¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?Politics
No$55 @ 49.1¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
No$51 @ 53.3¢
Iran nuclear test before 2027?Politics
No$45 @ 65.9¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics
No$41 @ 64.0¢
Ebola pandemic in 2026?Science
No$40 @ 83.3¢