0x30f9…fbfc

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x30f91b6df5a62ab2e504045e25fd449a23affbfc
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+0.8pp

ROI

+57%

Win rate

8% @ 7.6¢

Brier

0.057

Resolved

5804

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	38% (70/182)	+86%	182
Other	18% (32/174)	+46%	174
Geopolitics	22% (21/97)	+101%	97
Tech	18% (16/88)	+34%	88
Crypto	50% (3/6)	+8%	6
Sports	20% (1/5)	-37%	5
Science	50% (1/2)	+212%	2
Economy	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Culture	50% (1/2)	+6%	2

Politics182 bets
Hit rate
38% (70/182)
ROI
+86%
Other174 bets
Hit rate
18% (32/174)
ROI
+46%
Geopolitics97 bets
Hit rate
22% (21/97)
ROI
+101%
Tech88 bets
Hit rate
18% (16/88)
ROI
+34%
Crypto6 bets
Hit rate
50% (3/6)
ROI
+8%
Sports5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
-37%
Science2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+212%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+6%

Track record

26% hit · 145/558

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$6	0.5¢	Lost
Will StepFun be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Lost
Will Z.ai be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$2	0.6¢	Lost
Situational Awareness raises new capital by August 31?	Yes	$92	32.4¢	Lost
Will Z.ai be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$2	0.5¢	Lost
Will Xiaomi be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Z.ai be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$4	0.4¢	Lost
Will Microsoft be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$4	0.4¢	Lost
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.35T by July 31?	Yes	$79	7.8¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by June 8?	Yes	$670	41.4¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by June 10?	Yes	$98	2.9¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by June 9?	No	$5	31.5¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by June 9?	Yes	$10	3.0¢	Lost
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11?	Down	$10	32.0¢	Won
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11?	Up	$40	0.9¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?	Yes	$59	13.3¢	Lost
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?	Yes	$5	8.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by July 31?	No	$3	68.0¢	Lost
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?	Yes	$3	8.0¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	$8	95.0¢	Won
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	Yes	$4	3.1¢	Lost
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	$5	0.5¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	No	$13	90.0¢	Lost
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	No	$22	91.7¢	Won
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	Yes	$26	3.0¢	Lost
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	No	$1	14.0¢	Lost
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	Yes	$50	69.5¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	$89	59.5¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$10	5.8¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?	Yes	$4	0.4¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	$7	90.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$53	5.4¢	Lost
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	$30	69.0¢	Won
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	$1	4.0¢	Lost
Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	$10	1.4¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	$10	21.3¢	Won
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	Yes	$12	18.4¢	Lost
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	No	$15	95.0¢	Won
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	Yes	$19	1.0¢	Lost
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	$71	39.1¢	Won
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	$1	16.0¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	$20	21.3¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	$7	28.8¢	Lost
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	No	$6	80.0¢	Won
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	Yes	$30	8.1¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	$14	90.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	$24	3.9¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	$22	38.9¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	$274	7.4¢	Lost

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.5¢
Will StepFun be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
Will Z.ai be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of August 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.6¢
Situational Awareness raises new capital by August 31?Lost
Yes$92 @ 32.4¢
Will Z.ai be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.5¢
Will Xiaomi be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Z.ai be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.4¢
Will Microsoft be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.4¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.35T by July 31?Lost
Yes$79 @ 7.8¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 8?Lost
Yes$670 @ 41.4¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 10?Lost
Yes$98 @ 2.9¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 9?Won
No$5 @ 31.5¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 9?Lost
Yes$10 @ 3.0¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11?Won
Down$10 @ 32.0¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11?Lost
Up$40 @ 0.9¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?Lost
Yes$59 @ 13.3¢
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?Lost
Yes$5 @ 8.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by July 31?Lost
No$3 @ 68.0¢
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?Lost
Yes$3 @ 8.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?Won
No$8 @ 95.0¢
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?Lost
Yes$4 @ 3.1¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.5¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?Lost
No$13 @ 90.0¢
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?Won
No$22 @ 91.7¢
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?Lost
Yes$26 @ 3.0¢
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?Lost
No$1 @ 14.0¢
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?Won
Yes$50 @ 69.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?Won
No$89 @ 59.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 5.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.4¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?Won
No$7 @ 90.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$53 @ 5.4¢
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?Won
No$30 @ 69.0¢
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.0¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 1.4¢
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?Won
No$10 @ 21.3¢
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?Lost
Yes$12 @ 18.4¢
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?Won
No$15 @ 95.0¢
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?Lost
Yes$19 @ 1.0¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?Won
No$71 @ 39.1¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 16.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?Won
No$20 @ 21.3¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?Lost
Yes$7 @ 28.8¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?Won
No$6 @ 80.0¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?Lost
Yes$30 @ 8.1¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?Won
No$14 @ 90.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?Lost
Yes$24 @ 3.9¢
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?Won
No$22 @ 38.9¢
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?Lost
Yes$274 @ 7.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$631	1.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Politics	No	$220	69.6¢
Ilhan Omar federally charged by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$206	5.7¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?	Culture	Yes	$171	48.7¢
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$154	0.7¢
US military draft authorized in 2026?	Politics	No	$154	80.0¢
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$145	0.7¢
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $5B in 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$131	52.8¢
Will US annex any territory in 2026?	Politics	No	$122	80.0¢
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	—	Yes	$117	1.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$116	41.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?	Geopolitics	No	$110	11.0¢
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$108	0.2¢
Will Trump be impeached by June 30, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$103	54.6¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$102	75.8¢
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?	Politics	No	$102	72.7¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	No	$100	76.1¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$94	3.6¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$93	21.8¢
Situational Awareness raises new capital by August 31?	Tech	Yes	$92	32.4¢
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$89	0.3¢
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$81	84.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.35T by July 31?	—	Yes	$79	7.8¢
Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 15, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$76	30.1¢
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$75	67.3¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$73	50.0¢
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	Politics	No	$72	90.6¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$72	18.7¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$72	2.7¢
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	—	Yes	$69	3.8¢

Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
Yes$631 @ 1.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
No$220 @ 69.6¢
Ilhan Omar federally charged by October 31?Politics
Yes$206 @ 5.7¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?Culture
Yes$171 @ 48.7¢
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$154 @ 0.7¢
US military draft authorized in 2026?Politics
No$154 @ 80.0¢
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$145 @ 0.7¢
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $5B in 2026?Crypto
Yes$131 @ 52.8¢
Will US annex any territory in 2026?Politics
No$122 @ 80.0¢
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?—
Yes$117 @ 1.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$116 @ 41.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?Geopolitics
No$110 @ 11.0¢
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$108 @ 0.2¢
Will Trump be impeached by June 30, 2027?Politics
Yes$103 @ 54.6¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics
No$102 @ 75.8¢
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?Politics
No$102 @ 72.7¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
No$100 @ 76.1¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$94 @ 3.6¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Geopolitics
Yes$93 @ 21.8¢
Situational Awareness raises new capital by August 31?Tech
Yes$92 @ 32.4¢
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$89 @ 0.3¢
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$81 @ 84.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.35T by July 31?—
Yes$79 @ 7.8¢
Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 15, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$76 @ 30.1¢
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$75 @ 67.3¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$73 @ 50.0¢
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?Politics
No$72 @ 90.6¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$72 @ 18.7¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$72 @ 2.7¢
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?—
Yes$69 @ 3.8¢