0x30f8…b824

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x30f891cc7ef02c536de1026acdcc95464127b824
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+48.7pp

ROI

+44%

Win rate

88% @ 39.1¢

Brier

0.360

Resolved

172

Avg size

$32

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Sports	56% (15/27)	+46%	27
Other	60% (9/15)	-14%	15
Politics	33% (1/3)	+99%	3
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+14%	1

Sports27 bets
Hit rate
56% (15/27)
ROI
+46%
Other15 bets
Hit rate
60% (9/15)
ROI
-14%
Politics3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+99%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+14%

Track record

54% hit · 26/48

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	Yes	$16	19.0¢	Lost
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$2	1.3¢	Lost
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Yes	$92	22.0¢	Lost
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	Yes	$350	32.5¢	Lost
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	$41	13.0¢	Lost
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$101	64.0¢	Won
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	$30	67.0¢	Won
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	$165	47.4¢	Won
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Yes	$364	35.0¢	Won
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Yes	$41	30.0¢	Lost
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5	Over	$1.1k	75.0¢	Won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5	Under	$81	62.0¢	Lost
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	$101	69.0¢	Won
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$31	26.0¢	Lost
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$151	82.0¢	Lost
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Yes	$10	20.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	Yes	$10	18.0¢	Lost
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	No	$840	84.0¢	Won
Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	$20	80.5¢	Won
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	$10	13.0¢	Lost
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Over	$540	54.0¢	Won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5	Over	$192	40.5¢	Won
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	Over	$238	79.0¢	Won
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Yes	$31	27.9¢	Won
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	$152	58.0¢	Won
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	Yes	$51	32.0¢	Lost
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	No	$71	50.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	Yes	$36	29.3¢	Won
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal?	No	$89	89.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?	No	$303	87.9¢	Won
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Yes	$270	27.0¢	Won
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria?	Yes	$5	16.0¢	Lost
Timberwolves vs. Spurs	Spurs	$20	90.0¢	Won
Suns vs. Thunder	Thunder	$22	29.0¢	Lost
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines	Michigan Wolverines	$100	88.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$10	4.7¢	Lost
Jazz vs. Wizards	Jazz	$50	87.0¢	Won
Magic vs. Bucks	Magic	$45	89.0¢	Won
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	$100	64.7¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?	Yes	$8	8.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?	No	$105	35.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$50	40.7¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	Yes	$2	67.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$708	82.8¢	Won
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	No	$64	44.9¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	No	$410	87.9¢	Lost
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$148	14.5¢	Lost
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	$101	28.0¢	Lost

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?Lost
Yes$16 @ 19.0¢
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.3¢
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?Lost
Yes$92 @ 22.0¢
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?Lost
Yes$350 @ 32.5¢
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?Lost
Yes$41 @ 13.0¢
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?Won
Yes$101 @ 64.0¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Won
Yes$30 @ 67.0¢
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?Won
Yes$165 @ 47.4¢
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?Won
Yes$364 @ 35.0¢
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?Lost
Yes$41 @ 30.0¢
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5Won
Over$1.1k @ 75.0¢
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5Lost
Under$81 @ 62.0¢
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?Won
Yes$101 @ 69.0¢
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$31 @ 26.0¢
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?Lost
Yes$151 @ 82.0¢
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?Won
Yes$10 @ 20.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 18.0¢
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?Won
No$840 @ 84.0¢
Spurs vs. ThunderWon
Spurs$20 @ 80.5¢
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?Lost
Yes$10 @ 13.0¢
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5Won
Over$540 @ 54.0¢
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5Won
Over$192 @ 40.5¢
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5Won
Over$238 @ 79.0¢
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?Won
Yes$31 @ 27.9¢
Will England win on 2026-06-17?Won
Yes$152 @ 58.0¢
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?Lost
Yes$51 @ 32.0¢
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?Lost
No$71 @ 50.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?Won
Yes$36 @ 29.3¢
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal?Won
No$89 @ 89.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?Won
No$303 @ 87.9¢
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?Won
Yes$270 @ 27.0¢
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria?Lost
Yes$5 @ 16.0¢
Timberwolves vs. SpursWon
Spurs$20 @ 90.0¢
Suns vs. ThunderLost
Thunder$22 @ 29.0¢
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan WolverinesWon
Michigan Wolverines$100 @ 88.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 4.7¢
Jazz vs. WizardsWon
Jazz$50 @ 87.0¢
Magic vs. BucksWon
Magic$45 @ 89.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Won
Yes$100 @ 64.7¢
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 8.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?Won
No$105 @ 35.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 40.7¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Won
Yes$2 @ 67.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$708 @ 82.8¢
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?Lost
No$64 @ 44.9¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Lost
No$410 @ 87.9¢
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$148 @ 14.5¢
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?Lost
Yes$101 @ 28.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$1.3k	94.3¢
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Crypto	No	$1.1k	92.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$983	46.8¢
Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026?	Crypto	No	$885	97.2¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$784	56.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$768	94.6¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$764	88.9¢
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$694	87.4¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$661	90.3¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$500	95.3¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?	—	No	$500	99.2¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$448	87.7¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$350	84.3¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in August?	—	No	$300	97.8¢
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$300	82.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$300	94.9¢
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$300	86.5¢
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$290	93.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$200	71.7¢
Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$200	91.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	No	$182	87.7¢
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$148	74.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$100	91.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$100	73.0¢
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	Politics	No	$94	94.2¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$87	43.7¢
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	—	Yes	$6	12.0¢
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$1	50.0¢

Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics
No$1.3k @ 94.3¢
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?Crypto
No$1.1k @ 92.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$983 @ 46.8¢
Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026?Crypto
No$885 @ 97.2¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$784 @ 56.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics
No$768 @ 94.6¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$764 @ 88.9¢
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$694 @ 87.4¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$661 @ 90.3¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$500 @ 95.3¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?—
No$500 @ 99.2¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$448 @ 87.7¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$350 @ 84.3¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in August?—
No$300 @ 97.8¢
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$300 @ 82.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$300 @ 94.9¢
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$300 @ 86.5¢
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$290 @ 93.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$200 @ 71.7¢
Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$200 @ 91.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
No$182 @ 87.7¢
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$148 @ 74.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$100 @ 91.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$100 @ 73.0¢
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?Politics
No$94 @ 94.2¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$87 @ 43.7¢
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?—
Yes$6 @ 12.0¢
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$1 @ 50.0¢