0x30f8…b824

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x30f891cc7ef02c536de1026acdcc95464127b824
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.1pp

ROI

+16%

Win rate

28% @ 22.8¢

Brier

0.119

Resolved

1570

Avg size

$41

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	48% (164/342)	+3%	342
Sports	54% (53/99)	+35%	99
Politics	67% (8/12)	+30%	12
Crypto	58% (7/12)	-9%	12
Geopolitics	0% (0/4)	-100%	4
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other342 bets
Hit rate
48% (164/342)
ROI
+3%
Sports99 bets
Hit rate
54% (53/99)
ROI
+35%
Politics12 bets
Hit rate
67% (8/12)
ROI
+30%
Crypto12 bets
Hit rate
58% (7/12)
ROI
-9%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

49% hit · 232/471

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by February 28, 2025?	No	$100	88.0¢	Won
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-02?	Yes	$3	21.0¢	Lost
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?	Yes	$5	28.4¢	Lost
Suns vs. Thunder	Thunder	$22	29.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	Yes	$16	19.0¢	Lost
Will Base launch a token in 2025?	Yes	$10	10.0¢	Lost
Clippers vs. Warriors	Warriors	$30	80.0¢	Lost
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$101	70.0¢	Won
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$2	1.3¢	Lost
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines	Michigan Wolverines	$100	88.0¢	Won
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-05?	Yes	$10	57.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?	Yes	$2	0.2¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?	Yes	$5	14.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$100	82.4¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?	Yes	$5	3.9¢	Lost
Monad market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?	Yes	$120	11.9¢	Lost
Spurs vs. Knicks	Spurs	$51	47.0¢	Won
Will Manchester United vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw?	Yes	$5	21.0¢	Lost
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Yes	$92	22.0¢	Lost
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$6	1.2¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$100	83.5¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$50	40.7¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January?	Yes	$5	5.0¢	Lost
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?	Yes	$3	2.4¢	Lost
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	$81	64.0¢	Won
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5	Under	$51	57.0¢	Won
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$25	48.0¢	Won
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in February?	No	$940	20.9¢	Lost
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	Yes	$350	32.5¢	Lost
Will "Efecto" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?	Yes	$2	0.3¢	Lost
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$50	62.7¢	Lost
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31?	No	$50	76.0¢	Won
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-17?	Yes	$339	53.0¢	Won
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 700k?	Yes	$80	88.8¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	Yes	$2	67.0¢	Won
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	Yes	$41	30.0¢	Won
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	$10	53.0¢	Lost
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$101	60.0¢	Won
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-14?	Yes	$55	55.0¢	Lost
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?	Yes	$79	61.0¢	Won
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	$35	0.7¢	Lost
Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-10-03?	Yes	$10	51.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?	Yes	$5	4.6¢	Won
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	$41	13.0¢	Lost
Knicks vs. Spurs	Spurs	$159	55.8¢	Lost
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5	Over	$20	31.0¢	Lost
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Tennessee Volunteers: O/U 148.5	Under	$20	51.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.3¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January?	Yes	$50	8.7¢	Lost
Backpack FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	$5	16.0¢	Lost

Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by February 28, 2025?Won
No$100 @ 88.0¢
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-02?Lost
Yes$3 @ 21.0¢
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?Lost
Yes$5 @ 28.4¢
Suns vs. ThunderLost
Thunder$22 @ 29.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?Lost
Yes$16 @ 19.0¢
Will Base launch a token in 2025?Lost
Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
Clippers vs. WarriorsLost
Warriors$30 @ 80.0¢
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?Won
Yes$101 @ 70.0¢
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.3¢
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan WolverinesWon
Michigan Wolverines$100 @ 88.0¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-05?Lost
Yes$10 @ 57.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?Lost
Yes$5 @ 14.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$100 @ 82.4¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 3.9¢
Monad market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?Lost
Yes$120 @ 11.9¢
Spurs vs. KnicksWon
Spurs$51 @ 47.0¢
Will Manchester United vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw?Lost
Yes$5 @ 21.0¢
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?Lost
Yes$92 @ 22.0¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Lost
Yes$6 @ 1.2¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
Yes$100 @ 83.5¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 40.7¢
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January?Lost
Yes$5 @ 5.0¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$3 @ 2.4¢
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?Won
Yes$81 @ 64.0¢
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5Won
Under$51 @ 57.0¢
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to ScoreWon
Yes$25 @ 48.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in February?Lost
No$940 @ 20.9¢
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?Lost
Yes$350 @ 32.5¢
Will "Efecto" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.3¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$50 @ 62.7¢
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31?Won
No$50 @ 76.0¢
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-17?Won
Yes$339 @ 53.0¢
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 700k?Won
Yes$80 @ 88.8¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Won
Yes$2 @ 67.0¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?Won
Yes$41 @ 30.0¢
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?Lost
Yes$10 @ 53.0¢
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?Won
Yes$101 @ 60.0¢
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-14?Lost
Yes$55 @ 55.0¢
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?Won
Yes$79 @ 61.0¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$35 @ 0.7¢
Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-10-03?Lost
Yes$10 @ 51.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?Won
Yes$5 @ 4.6¢
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?Lost
Yes$41 @ 13.0¢
Knicks vs. SpursLost
Spurs$159 @ 55.8¢
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5Lost
Over$20 @ 31.0¢
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Tennessee Volunteers: O/U 148.5Won
Under$20 @ 51.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January?Lost
Yes$50 @ 8.7¢
Backpack FDV above $400M one day after launch?Lost
Yes$5 @ 16.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$300	86.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$300	69.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$200	71.7¢
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$200	90.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	No	$182	87.7¢
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$175	81.9¢
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$148	74.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$100	91.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$100	81.6¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$100	73.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$50	64.5¢
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$33	66.0¢
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$30	59.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$14	20.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$13	19.0¢
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$1	50.0¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.0¢

Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$300 @ 86.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$300 @ 69.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$200 @ 71.7¢
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$200 @ 90.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
No$182 @ 87.7¢
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$175 @ 81.9¢
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$148 @ 74.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$100 @ 91.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$100 @ 81.6¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$100 @ 73.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$50 @ 64.5¢
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$33 @ 66.0¢
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$30 @ 59.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?Politics
Yes$14 @ 20.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?Politics
Yes$13 @ 19.0¢
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$1 @ 50.0¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢