0x3069…f8ef

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x3069c1002bd0bb6aec054c7a27722919df95f8ef
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.4pp

ROI

+5%

Win rate

68% @ 64.1¢

Brier

0.172

Resolved

2850

Avg size

$158

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	64% (322/507)	+5%	507
Politics	50% (16/32)	-23%	32
Tech	69% (9/13)	+16%	13
Geopolitics	71% (5/7)	+37%	7
Culture	50% (1/2)	-13%	2
Sports	100% (1/1)	+69%	1

Other507 bets
Hit rate
64% (322/507)
ROI
+5%
Politics32 bets
Hit rate
50% (16/32)
ROI
-23%
Tech13 bets
Hit rate
69% (9/13)
ROI
+16%
Geopolitics7 bets
Hit rate
71% (5/7)
ROI
+37%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-13%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+69%

Track record

63% hit · 354/562

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$27	3.0¢	Lost
Will Ethereum dip to $2,750 by January 31?	No	$200	84.0¢	Won
GPT ads by December 31?	No	$195	65.0¢	Won
Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31?	No	$1.2k	79.0¢	Won
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	No	$740	74.0¢	Won
Will Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?	Yes	$25	65.0¢	Won
49ers vs. Seahawks	Seahawks	$300	73.0¢	Won
Epstein client list released in 2025?	No	$819	85.7¢	Won
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025?	Yes	$274	18.7¢	Lost
Will Trump say 'Elon' or 'Musk' during the 2025 State of the Union?	No	$228	38.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX have exactly 10 launches in January?	Yes	$180	24.5¢	Lost
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 achieve a successful splashdown?	Yes	$364	43.2¢	Won
Will Bernie say "Gaza" during the GOTV rally with AOC and Zohran on October 26?	Yes	$100	64.6¢	Won
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	No	$403	23.4¢	Won
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	Yes	$490	49.0¢	Lost
Will KPop Demon Hunters be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?	Yes	$500	77.7¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$500	69.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump say "Sanction" 2+ times during Syria President events on November 10?	No	$15	16.9¢	Won
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$3.1k	34.1¢	Lost
Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files?	No	$468	67.4¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	No	$880	88.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by February 28?	No	$7	65.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Crying Chuck" or "Cryin Chuck" during the 2026 State of the Union address?	No	$30	78.0¢	Won
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$85	63.1¢	Lost
Will Solana hit $210 in December?	No	$204	51.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Gaza" during the 2026 State of the Union address?	Yes	$66	89.0¢	Won
Will Kamala say "Project 2025" at debate?	No	$50	16.0¢	Lost
Will David Copperfield be named in newly released Epstein files?	Yes	$40	35.0¢	Won
Super Bowl LIX Winner	Chiefs	$208	52.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Elizabeth Warren" or "Pocahontas" during the State of the Union address?	No	$258	86.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?	Yes	$554	27.7¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech?	No	$768	64.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$2.5k	75.4¢	Won
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	$70	35.6¢	Lost
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?	Yes	$745	74.5¢	Won
SpaceX Flight 7 launch before February 2025?	Yes	$2.1k	84.2¢	Won
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?	No	$1.7k	65.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during Syria President events on November 10?	No	$100	45.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch by March 6?	Yes	$291	72.8¢	Won
Ethereum above $3,300 on November 29?	Yes	$288	72.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech?	No	$45	15.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "hell" during his inauguration speech?	No	$100	77.7¢	Won
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2025?	Yes	$89	89.0¢	Won
Will Trump attend SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8?	No	$191	80.0¢	Won
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?	No	$892	89.0¢	Won
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	No	$890	77.0¢	Won
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Yes	$500	42.0¢	Lost
Will four SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?	Yes	$1.1k	87.9¢	Won
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Yes	$10	3.7¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$511	45.0¢	Won

Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$27 @ 3.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,750 by January 31?Won
No$200 @ 84.0¢
GPT ads by December 31?Won
No$195 @ 65.0¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31?Won
No$1.2k @ 79.0¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Won
No$740 @ 74.0¢
Will Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Won
Yes$25 @ 65.0¢
49ers vs. SeahawksWon
Seahawks$300 @ 73.0¢
Epstein client list released in 2025?Won
No$819 @ 85.7¢
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025?Lost
Yes$274 @ 18.7¢
Will Trump say 'Elon' or 'Musk' during the 2025 State of the Union?Lost
No$228 @ 38.0¢
Will SpaceX have exactly 10 launches in January?Lost
Yes$180 @ 24.5¢
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 achieve a successful splashdown?Won
Yes$364 @ 43.2¢
Will Bernie say "Gaza" during the GOTV rally with AOC and Zohran on October 26?Won
Yes$100 @ 64.6¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Won
No$403 @ 23.4¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Lost
Yes$490 @ 49.0¢
Will KPop Demon Hunters be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?Lost
Yes$500 @ 77.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$500 @ 69.0¢
Will Donald Trump say "Sanction" 2+ times during Syria President events on November 10?Won
No$15 @ 16.9¢
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?Lost
Yes$3.1k @ 34.1¢
Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files?Lost
No$468 @ 67.4¢
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Won
No$880 @ 88.0¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by February 28?Won
No$7 @ 65.0¢
Will Trump say "Crying Chuck" or "Cryin Chuck" during the 2026 State of the Union address?Won
No$30 @ 78.0¢
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
Yes$85 @ 63.1¢
Will Solana hit $210 in December?Lost
No$204 @ 51.0¢
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Gaza" during the 2026 State of the Union address?Won
Yes$66 @ 89.0¢
Will Kamala say "Project 2025" at debate?Lost
No$50 @ 16.0¢
Will David Copperfield be named in newly released Epstein files?Won
Yes$40 @ 35.0¢
Super Bowl LIX WinnerLost
Chiefs$208 @ 52.0¢
Will Trump say "Elizabeth Warren" or "Pocahontas" during the State of the Union address?Won
No$258 @ 86.0¢
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?Lost
Yes$554 @ 27.7¢
Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech?Lost
No$768 @ 64.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$2.5k @ 75.4¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Lost
Yes$70 @ 35.6¢
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?Won
Yes$745 @ 74.5¢
SpaceX Flight 7 launch before February 2025?Won
Yes$2.1k @ 84.2¢
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?Lost
No$1.7k @ 65.9¢
Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during Syria President events on November 10?Won
No$100 @ 45.0¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch by March 6?Won
Yes$291 @ 72.8¢
Ethereum above $3,300 on November 29?Won
Yes$288 @ 72.0¢
Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech?Lost
No$45 @ 15.0¢
Will Trump say "hell" during his inauguration speech?Won
No$100 @ 77.7¢
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2025?Won
Yes$89 @ 89.0¢
Will Trump attend SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8?Won
No$191 @ 80.0¢
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?Won
No$892 @ 89.0¢
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Won
No$890 @ 77.0¢
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Lost
Yes$500 @ 42.0¢
Will four SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 87.9¢
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Lost
Yes$10 @ 3.7¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Won
Yes$511 @ 45.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Culture	No	$8.6k	61.8¢
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	Culture	Yes	$5.6k	42.8¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Culture	Yes	$5.2k	63.7¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$4.0k	91.0¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Culture	No	$2.2k	84.4¢
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?	Politics	No	$1.3k	83.7¢
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	Yes	$1000	82.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1000	70.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$650	40.0¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$560	56.0¢
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$500	78.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$500	62.0¢
Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?	Culture	Yes	$370	74.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Politics	Yes	$340	68.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$300	71.0¢
5kt meteor strike in 2026?	Tech	No	$263	47.9¢
US military draft authorized in 2026?	Politics	No	$204	92.0¢
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster?	Tech	Yes	$195	48.1¢
Will Trump deport 400-500k people?	Politics	Yes	$182	29.3¢
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$179	28.5¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 15, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$165	55.0¢
Will the chopsticks catch the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?	Tech	Yes	$150	29.7¢
Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?	Tech	No	$146	62.1¢
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?	Culture	Yes	$108	5.8¢
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Tech	No	$106	71.0¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$88	22.0¢
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Tech	No	$46	63.0¢
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?	Tech	No	$44	76.0¢
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?	Tech	No	$33	60.0¢
Will Trump deport 500-600k people?	Politics	Yes	$28	5.3¢

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Culture
No$8.6k @ 61.8¢
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?Culture
Yes$5.6k @ 42.8¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?Culture
Yes$5.2k @ 63.7¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$4.0k @ 91.0¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?Culture
No$2.2k @ 84.4¢
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? Politics
No$1.3k @ 83.7¢
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
Yes$1000 @ 82.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Politics
Yes$1000 @ 70.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$650 @ 40.0¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Politics
No$560 @ 56.0¢
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Economy
Yes$500 @ 78.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$500 @ 62.0¢
Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?Culture
Yes$370 @ 74.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Politics
Yes$340 @ 68.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
No$300 @ 71.0¢
5kt meteor strike in 2026?Tech
No$263 @ 47.9¢
US military draft authorized in 2026?Politics
No$204 @ 92.0¢
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster?Tech
Yes$195 @ 48.1¢
Will Trump deport 400-500k people?Politics
Yes$182 @ 29.3¢
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?Tech
Yes$179 @ 28.5¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 15, 2026?Tech
Yes$165 @ 55.0¢
Will the chopsticks catch the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?Tech
Yes$150 @ 29.7¢
Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?Tech
No$146 @ 62.1¢
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?Culture
Yes$108 @ 5.8¢
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?Tech
No$106 @ 71.0¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics
Yes$88 @ 22.0¢
GTA 6 launch postponed again?Tech
No$46 @ 63.0¢
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?Tech
No$44 @ 76.0¢
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?Tech
No$33 @ 60.0¢
Will Trump deport 500-600k people?Politics
Yes$28 @ 5.3¢