0x2e1c…db61

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x2e1c6e971cff5c3259090d3dea7802a15e4edb61
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.9pp

ROI

+21%

Win rate

28% @ 22.2¢

Brier

0.042

Resolved

299

Avg size

$19

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	3% (1/30)	-87%	30
Tech	50% (7/14)	+23%	14
Geopolitics	15% (2/13)	+187%	13
Politics	0% (0/4)	-100%	4
Sports	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Science	100% (3/3)	+28%	3
Business	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other30 bets
Hit rate
3% (1/30)
ROI
-87%
Tech14 bets
Hit rate
50% (7/14)
ROI
+23%
Geopolitics13 bets
Hit rate
15% (2/13)
ROI
+187%
Politics4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Science3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+28%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

19% hit · 13/68

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$24	12.0¢	Lost
Will DeepSeek be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$2	9.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 3?	Yes	$0	0.9¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in June?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026?	No	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$5	1.6¢	Lost
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	$18	17.1¢	Won
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $315 in June?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$28	1.7¢	Lost
Will nocries play an HLTV-recorded match by June 30?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Will Vivo Keyd Stars qualify to the EWC	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026?	Yes	$1	12.0¢	Lost
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel by June 30?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 in June?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	2.3¢	Won
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?	No	$31	15.7¢	Lost
Trump weaponization fund blocked by May 31?	No	$20	1.0¢	Lost
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?	Yes	$3	3.2¢	Lost
Trump weaponization fund blocked by June 30?	No	$19	38.0¢	Lost
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9?	Yes	$8	77.0¢	Won
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?	Yes	$2	1.7¢	Lost
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	$14	35.0¢	Lost
Will Baidu be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on June 7?	No	$3	65.0¢	Won
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?	Yes	$985	78.9¢	Won
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $390 in June?	Yes	$0	0.5¢	Lost
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?	Yes	$2.8k	80.4¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$46	2.7¢	Lost
Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	$4	0.7¢	Lost
Will MiniMax be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Lost
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $135B by June 30?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will Algeria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will MiniMax be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Tencent be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Lost
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	Yes	$266	84.7¢	Won
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $156 in June?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 9?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in June?	Yes	$1	2.1¢	Lost
Will DeepSeek be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$8	2.4¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	86.5¢	Won
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$0	29.0¢	Won
Will Jared Goff attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	$2	3.1¢	Lost
Will Danielle Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31?	No	$5	5.2¢	Lost
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?	Yes	$56	27.0¢	Won
Will Xiaomi be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	3.0¢	Lost
Will MiniMax be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Lost

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$24 @ 12.0¢
Will DeepSeek be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 9.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 3?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.9¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in June?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$0 @ 0.1¢
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.6¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Won
No$18 @ 17.1¢
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $315 in June?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Lost
Yes$28 @ 1.7¢
Will nocries play an HLTV-recorded match by June 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Will Vivo Keyd Stars qualify to the EWCLost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 12.0¢
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel by June 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 in June?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 2.3¢
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?Lost
No$31 @ 15.7¢
Trump weaponization fund blocked by May 31?Lost
No$20 @ 1.0¢
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?Lost
Yes$3 @ 3.2¢
Trump weaponization fund blocked by June 30?Lost
No$19 @ 38.0¢
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9?Won
Yes$8 @ 77.0¢
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.7¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Lost
No$14 @ 35.0¢
Will Baidu be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on June 7?Won
No$3 @ 65.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?Won
Yes$985 @ 78.9¢
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $390 in June?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.5¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?Won
Yes$2.8k @ 80.4¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$46 @ 2.7¢
Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.7¢
Will MiniMax be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $135B by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $65 in June?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will Algeria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will MiniMax be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Tencent be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?Won
Yes$266 @ 84.7¢
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $156 in June?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 9?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in June?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.1¢
Will DeepSeek be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 2.4¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 86.5¢
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$0 @ 29.0¢
Will Jared Goff attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Lost
Yes$2 @ 3.1¢
Will Danielle Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Lost
No$1 @ 2.0¢
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31?Lost
No$5 @ 5.2¢
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?Won
Yes$56 @ 27.0¢
Will Xiaomi be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
Will MiniMax be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$1.7k	89.7¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$1.2k	61.2¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$1.1k	93.5¢
Next GPT Luna (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$258	86.0¢
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$178	89.0¢
Kanye West arrested in Russia by October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$98	97.8¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$96	96.0¢
Will OpenAI raise between $30B and $40B in its IPO?	Tech	No	$40	93.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$32	30.8¢
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$32	79.0¢
Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$19	94.0¢
Will Burundi have an Ebola case in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$14	46.0¢
Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$9	4.2¢
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$7	7.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?	Tech	No	$4	82.0¢
Will Xiaomi be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$2	0.9¢
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1	8.7¢
Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$0	0.3¢
Will MiniMax be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$0	0.4¢
Will Tencent be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$0	0.4¢

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?Tech
No$1.7k @ 89.7¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?Tech
Yes$1.2k @ 61.2¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?Tech
No$1.1k @ 93.5¢
Next GPT Luna (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$258 @ 86.0¢
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$178 @ 89.0¢
Kanye West arrested in Russia by October 31?Geopolitics
No$98 @ 97.8¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?Tech
No$96 @ 96.0¢
Will OpenAI raise between $30B and $40B in its IPO?Tech
No$40 @ 93.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Tech
Yes$32 @ 30.8¢
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$32 @ 79.0¢
Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$19 @ 94.0¢
Will Burundi have an Ebola case in 2026?Culture
Yes$14 @ 46.0¢
Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$9 @ 4.2¢
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$7 @ 7.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?Tech
No$4 @ 82.0¢
Will Xiaomi be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$2 @ 0.9¢
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$1 @ 8.7¢
Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will MiniMax be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
Will Tencent be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢