0x2db9…f0c0

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x2db9d0665d4f9e9613245d13517c4d200fd0f0c0
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+28.1pp

ROI

+57%

Win rate

61% @ 33.3¢

Brier

0.284

Resolved

Avg size

$67

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	57% (13/23)	+117%	23
Politics	50% (2/4)	+8%	4
Geopolitics	0% (0/4)	-100%	4

Other23 bets
Hit rate
57% (13/23)
ROI
+117%
Politics4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+8%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%

Track record

48% hit · 15/31

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?	Yes	$20	23.1¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1?	No	$50	5.0¢	Lost
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	$441	59.2¢	Won
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?	No	$4	0.2¢	Lost
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?	Yes	$178	18.6¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$80	82.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$31	68.0¢	Won
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23?	No	$46	46.0¢	Lost
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23?	Yes	$100	56.0¢	Won
US military action against Iran before August?	Yes	$366	72.3¢	Won
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?	Yes	$19	5.6¢	Lost
US military action against Iran before July?	Yes	$363	36.2¢	Won
Iran Strike on Israel by January 31?	Yes	$95	13.1¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	Yes	$63	48.0¢	Won
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	$5	8.3¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?	Yes	$79	44.0¢	Won
Israel strike on Iran on June 25?	Yes	$53	31.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?	Yes	$87	38.4¢	Lost
Strike on Israel's Dimonah nuclear base in June?	Yes	$7	64.1¢	Lost
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?	No	$8	47.0¢	Won
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?	Yes	$323	32.0¢	Won
Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	$208	50.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?	Yes	$514	46.6¢	Lost
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	$50	67.5¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	$4	2.4¢	Lost
Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31?	No	$174	59.7¢	Won
Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31?	Yes	$139	35.0¢	Lost
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026?	Yes	$132	89.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 30?	No	$1	3.0¢	Lost
Israel military action against Iran before July?	Yes	$170	24.4¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$11	63.0¢	Won

Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?Lost
Yes$20 @ 23.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1?Lost
No$50 @ 5.0¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Won
No$441 @ 59.2¢
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?Lost
No$4 @ 0.2¢
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?Won
Yes$178 @ 18.6¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$80 @ 82.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$31 @ 68.0¢
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23?Lost
No$46 @ 46.0¢
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23?Won
Yes$100 @ 56.0¢
US military action against Iran before August?Won
Yes$366 @ 72.3¢
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?Lost
Yes$19 @ 5.6¢
US military action against Iran before July?Won
Yes$363 @ 36.2¢
Iran Strike on Israel by January 31?Lost
Yes$95 @ 13.1¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Won
Yes$63 @ 48.0¢
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Lost
Yes$5 @ 8.3¢
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Won
Yes$79 @ 44.0¢
Israel strike on Iran on June 25?Lost
Yes$53 @ 31.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?Lost
Yes$87 @ 38.4¢
Strike on Israel's Dimonah nuclear base in June?Lost
Yes$7 @ 64.1¢
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?Won
No$8 @ 47.0¢
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?Won
Yes$323 @ 32.0¢
Iran leadership change by April 30?Lost
Yes$208 @ 50.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?Lost
Yes$514 @ 46.6¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Won
Yes$50 @ 67.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Lost
No$4 @ 2.4¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31?Won
No$174 @ 59.7¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31?Lost
Yes$139 @ 35.0¢
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026?Won
Yes$132 @ 89.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 30?Lost
No$1 @ 3.0¢
Israel military action against Iran before July?Won
Yes$170 @ 24.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$11 @ 63.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Iran leadership change by April 30?	Politics	Yes	$208	50.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Geopolitics	No	$14	5.6¢
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	—	Yes	$5	8.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	Geopolitics	No	$3	3.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$2	2.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 30?	Geopolitics	No	$1	3.0¢

Iran leadership change by April 30?Politics
Yes$208 @ 50.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?Geopolitics
No$14 @ 5.6¢
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?—
Yes$5 @ 8.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?Geopolitics
No$3 @ 3.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
No$2 @ 2.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 30?Geopolitics
No$1 @ 3.0¢