0x2d81…fe57

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x2d811b8d15236dabe92b2f3610a01cc9dbcafe57
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.3pp

ROI

+17%

Win rate

53% @ 49.0¢

Brier

0.181

Resolved

3127

Avg size

$21

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	54% (219/403)	+32%	403
Politics	51% (47/93)	-6%	93
Tech	64% (23/36)	+3%	36
Geopolitics	46% (6/13)	-22%	13
Culture	75% (9/12)	+21%	12
Sports	43% (3/7)	-76%	7
Science	17% (1/6)	-17%	6
Economy	80% (4/5)	+37%	5
Crypto	75% (3/4)	+48%	4

Other403 bets
Hit rate
54% (219/403)
ROI
+32%
Politics93 bets
Hit rate
51% (47/93)
ROI
-6%
Tech36 bets
Hit rate
64% (23/36)
ROI
+3%
Geopolitics13 bets
Hit rate
46% (6/13)
ROI
-22%
Culture12 bets
Hit rate
75% (9/12)
ROI
+21%
Sports7 bets
Hit rate
43% (3/7)
ROI
-76%
Science6 bets
Hit rate
17% (1/6)
ROI
-17%
Economy5 bets
Hit rate
80% (4/5)
ROI
+37%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+48%

Track record

54% hit · 315/579

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	Yes	$109	68.6¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	$161	41.8¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$605	43.9¢	Lost
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	$222	65.5¢	Lost
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	$19	73.9¢	Won
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	$3	6.6¢	Lost
Will Jack Antonoff attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	$7	89.7¢	Won
Will Dan Green be the Republican nominee for FL-09?	No	$5	15.4¢	Lost
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$12	71.0¢	Won
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	Yes	$272	87.0¢	Won
Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?	No	$26	56.5¢	Won
Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?	Yes	$11	74.0¢	Lost
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?	Yes	$1.1k	59.9¢	Won
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?	Yes	$24	83.0¢	Won
Will "I Love Boosters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 4m?	Yes	$11	88.0¢	Won
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$106	62.0¢	Won
Will Apple release AirTag 2 by June 30?	No	$6	3.8¢	Lost
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?	Yes	$211	12.3¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 5%?	Yes	$126	47.4¢	Lost
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?	Yes	$166	20.8¢	Lost
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?	No	$15	77.0¢	Won
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?	No	$37	47.7¢	Won
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?	Yes	$483	40.6¢	Lost
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m?	No	$46	85.1¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$122	85.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	No	$37	16.9¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$77	9.5¢	Lost
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	$357	82.9¢	Won
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	$16	10.9¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score below 1480?	No	$5	88.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$44	19.7¢	Lost
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$142	86.8¢	Won
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?	Yes	$5	4.3¢	Lost
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	$84	86.0¢	Won
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	$38	70.9¢	Won
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?	Yes	$126	82.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$572	62.5¢	Won
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?	Yes	$36	85.4¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	$52	48.3¢	Won
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?	Yes	$113	34.0¢	Lost
Will Tisza win at least 110 seats?	Yes	$12	74.0¢	Won
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	$22	18.0¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?	Yes	$31	72.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 30?	Yes	$6	27.5¢	Lost
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 54m?	No	$4	39.7¢	Lost
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 54m?	Yes	$38	55.4¢	Won
Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 16.5m and 18m?	No	$15	83.8¢	Lost
Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 16.5m and 18m?	Yes	$66	61.5¢	Won
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?	Yes	$56	41.7¢	Lost
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	No	$11	84.0¢	Won

Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?Won
Yes$109 @ 68.6¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Won
No$161 @ 41.8¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$605 @ 43.9¢
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Lost
No$222 @ 65.5¢
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Won
Yes$19 @ 73.9¢
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)?Lost
No$3 @ 6.6¢
Will Jack Antonoff attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Won
Yes$7 @ 89.7¢
Will Dan Green be the Republican nominee for FL-09?Lost
No$5 @ 15.4¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
No$12 @ 71.0¢
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?Won
Yes$272 @ 87.0¢
Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?Won
No$26 @ 56.5¢
Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?Lost
Yes$11 @ 74.0¢
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 59.9¢
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?Won
Yes$24 @ 83.0¢
Will "I Love Boosters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 4m?Won
Yes$11 @ 88.0¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Won
Yes$106 @ 62.0¢
Will Apple release AirTag 2 by June 30?Lost
No$6 @ 3.8¢
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?Won
Yes$211 @ 12.3¢
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 5%?Lost
Yes$126 @ 47.4¢
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?Lost
Yes$166 @ 20.8¢
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?Won
No$15 @ 77.0¢
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?Won
No$37 @ 47.7¢
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?Lost
Yes$483 @ 40.6¢
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m?Won
No$46 @ 85.1¢
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?Won
Yes$122 @ 85.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$37 @ 16.9¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$77 @ 9.5¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Won
No$357 @ 82.9¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
Yes$16 @ 10.9¢
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score below 1480?Lost
No$5 @ 88.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$44 @ 19.7¢
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$142 @ 86.8¢
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?Lost
Yes$5 @ 4.3¢
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
No$84 @ 86.0¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Won
No$38 @ 70.9¢
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?Won
Yes$126 @ 82.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$572 @ 62.5¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?Won
Yes$36 @ 85.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Won
No$52 @ 48.3¢
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?Lost
Yes$113 @ 34.0¢
Will Tisza win at least 110 seats?Won
Yes$12 @ 74.0¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Lost
No$22 @ 18.0¢
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?Won
Yes$31 @ 72.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 30?Lost
Yes$6 @ 27.5¢
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 54m?Lost
No$4 @ 39.7¢
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 54m?Won
Yes$38 @ 55.4¢
Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 16.5m and 18m?Lost
No$15 @ 83.8¢
Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 16.5m and 18m?Won
Yes$66 @ 61.5¢
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?Lost
Yes$56 @ 41.7¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$11 @ 84.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$1.0k	64.5¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$783	77.3¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Politics	No	$562	75.5¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$459	53.5¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$421	70.1¢
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	No	$377	78.5¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$343	74.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?	Politics	Yes	$304	55.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$223	93.0¢
US recession by end of 2026?	Economy	No	$202	82.5¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	No	$184	58.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Politics	Yes	$184	72.5¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	Tech	No	$179	92.2¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$167	30.2¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$153	68.5¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?	Culture	Yes	$113	63.1¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$101	70.5¢
Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	Tech	No	$96	90.6¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$93	71.8¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$93	32.6¢
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$84	67.6¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Business	Yes	$64	58.6¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$62	73.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?	Politics	No	$58	22.9¢
Will "Avengers: Endgame Encore" be #1 Box Office this weekend?	Culture	Yes	$40	73.5¢
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$29	38.5¢
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Sports	No	$27	75.5¢
Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$22	61.5¢
Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 19m?	Culture	Yes	$20	47.3¢
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$18	84.9¢

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$1.0k @ 64.5¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$783 @ 77.3¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Politics
No$562 @ 75.5¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$459 @ 53.5¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$421 @ 70.1¢
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
No$377 @ 78.5¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Tech
No$343 @ 74.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?Politics
Yes$304 @ 55.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?Tech
No$223 @ 93.0¢
US recession by end of 2026?Economy
No$202 @ 82.5¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
No$184 @ 58.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Politics
Yes$184 @ 72.5¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?Tech
No$179 @ 92.2¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$167 @ 30.2¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Culture
Yes$153 @ 68.5¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?Culture
Yes$113 @ 63.1¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$101 @ 70.5¢
Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?Tech
No$96 @ 90.6¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$93 @ 71.8¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$93 @ 32.6¢
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$84 @ 67.6¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Business
Yes$64 @ 58.6¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$62 @ 73.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?Politics
No$58 @ 22.9¢
Will "Avengers: Endgame Encore" be #1 Box Office this weekend?Culture
Yes$40 @ 73.5¢
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$29 @ 38.5¢
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Sports
No$27 @ 75.5¢
Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$22 @ 61.5¢
Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 19m?Culture
Yes$20 @ 47.3¢
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$18 @ 84.9¢