0x2d61…1fa7

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x2d613c30614b68eada0a37d65bddf3778d981fa7
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.6pp

ROI

+14%

Win rate

57% @ 49.1¢

Brier

0.148

Resolved

1510

Avg size

$177

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	55% (87/157)	+14%	157
Politics	55% (46/83)	+3%	83
Geopolitics	54% (13/24)	-2%	24
Sports	44% (4/9)	-40%	9
Tech	100% (4/4)	+41%	4
Culture	100% (2/2)	+27%	2
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other157 bets
Hit rate
55% (87/157)
ROI
+14%
Politics83 bets
Hit rate
55% (46/83)
ROI
+3%
Geopolitics24 bets
Hit rate
54% (13/24)
ROI
-2%
Sports9 bets
Hit rate
44% (4/9)
ROI
-40%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
100% (4/4)
ROI
+41%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+27%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

56% hit · 156/280

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
O/U 2.5 Rounds	Under	$102	34.0¢	Lost
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	No	$318	25.5¢	Lost
Will Reform UK win at least 2000 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	$1.1k	81.1¢	Won
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?	No	$11	41.0¢	Won
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	$420	84.0¢	Won
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	$4.2k	80.6¢	Won
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Yes	$752	31.5¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026?	No	$246	82.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$200	20.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$206	41.3¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	$420	84.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Yes	$690	23.0¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by April 30?	No	$3	65.0¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$176	77.0¢	Lost
Will the Green Party win at least 900 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	$430	86.0¢	Won
UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Kyler Phillips	$132	44.0¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$1.1k	71.0¢	Won
Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?	No	$189	64.0¢	Won
Will Reform UK win at least 1800 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	$449	70.8¢	Won
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	No	$129	12.9¢	Won
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	$136	13.6¢	Lost
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	No	$8	1.6¢	Lost
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5	Under	$67	60.5¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$50	5.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$1.4k	54.3¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$4.5k	76.9¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$574	35.9¢	Lost
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 15?	No	$34	85.5¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?	Yes	$437	39.9¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$592	76.0¢	Won
Will Reform UK win at least 2200 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	$1.4k	88.6¢	Won
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	$25	5.0¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Card)	Gilbert Burns	$87	29.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?	No	$148	74.0¢	Won
Will the Green Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	$5	25.0¢	Won
Will the Green Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	$28	6.0¢	Lost
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	$1.5k	83.1¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$9.1k	76.2¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$8.3k	41.5¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$7.2k	33.4¢	Lost
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5?	No	$1.3k	78.0¢	Lost
Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?	Yes	$335	67.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	No	$810	81.0¢	Won
Will the Labour Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	$270	54.0¢	Won
O/U 2.5 Rounds	Over	$54	53.0¢	Won
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?	No	$2.1k	85.8¢	Won
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?	Yes	$1.1k	65.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $640b on March 31?	Yes	$53	14.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	$370	46.3¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$198	66.0¢	Won

O/U 2.5 RoundsLost
Under$102 @ 34.0¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?Lost
No$318 @ 25.5¢
Will Reform UK win at least 2000 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Won
No$1.1k @ 81.1¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?Won
No$11 @ 41.0¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
No$420 @ 84.0¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Won
No$4.2k @ 80.6¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Lost
Yes$752 @ 31.5¢
Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026?Won
No$246 @ 82.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$200 @ 20.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$206 @ 41.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Won
No$420 @ 84.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Lost
Yes$690 @ 23.0¢
Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by April 30?Won
No$3 @ 65.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$176 @ 77.0¢
Will the Green Party win at least 900 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Won
No$430 @ 86.0¢
UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Main Card)Lost
Kyler Phillips$132 @ 44.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 71.0¢
Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?Won
No$189 @ 64.0¢
Will Reform UK win at least 1800 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Won
No$449 @ 70.8¢
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Won
No$129 @ 12.9¢
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Lost
Yes$136 @ 13.6¢
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?Lost
No$8 @ 1.6¢
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Lost
Under$67 @ 60.5¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 5.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 54.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$4.5k @ 76.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$574 @ 35.9¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 15?Won
No$34 @ 85.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Lost
Yes$437 @ 39.9¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$592 @ 76.0¢
Will Reform UK win at least 2200 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Won
No$1.4k @ 88.6¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?Lost
Yes$25 @ 5.0¢
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Card)Lost
Gilbert Burns$87 @ 29.0¢
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?Won
No$148 @ 74.0¢
Will the Green Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Won
No$5 @ 25.0¢
Will the Green Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Lost
Yes$28 @ 6.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Won
No$1.5k @ 83.1¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$9.1k @ 76.2¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$8.3k @ 41.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$7.2k @ 33.4¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5?Lost
No$1.3k @ 78.0¢
Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?Lost
Yes$335 @ 67.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?Won
No$810 @ 81.0¢
Will the Labour Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Won
Yes$270 @ 54.0¢
O/U 2.5 RoundsWon
Over$54 @ 53.0¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?Won
No$2.1k @ 85.8¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 65.0¢
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $640b on March 31?Lost
Yes$53 @ 14.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Won
No$370 @ 46.3¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$198 @ 66.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$5.0k	50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$5.0k	50.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Politics	No	$4.4k	88.0¢
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?	Politics	No	$773	80.7¢
Will Drake be the top artist for 2026?	Culture	No	$700	82.9¢
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Politics	No	$615	61.5¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$565	56.5¢
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	Politics	No	$526	65.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$517	37.9¢
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?	Tech	No	$380	76.0¢
5kt meteor strike in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$334	55.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Politics	No	$274	85.4¢
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?	Tech	No	$268	53.5¢
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Sports	No	$255	51.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	No	$177	35.4¢
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Tech	Yes	$111	37.0¢
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?	Politics	No	$27	87.9¢
MLB: Aaron Judge or Juan Soto to draw more walks?	Sports	Judge	$23	15.0¢
Will the Chicago Bears leave Illinois by Dec. 31?	Sports	No	$16	58.6¢
X banned in any European country by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$7	18.0¢
Will Umar Nurmagomedov be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Sports	No	$3	75.0¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	No	$1	90.1¢

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$5.0k @ 50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$5.0k @ 50.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
No$4.4k @ 88.0¢
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?Politics
No$773 @ 80.7¢
Will Drake be the top artist for 2026?Culture
No$700 @ 82.9¢
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?Politics
No$615 @ 61.5¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
No$565 @ 56.5¢
US strike on Colombia by December 31?Politics
No$526 @ 65.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Politics
Yes$517 @ 37.9¢
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?Tech
No$380 @ 76.0¢
5kt meteor strike in 2026?Tech
Yes$334 @ 55.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
No$274 @ 85.4¢
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?Tech
No$268 @ 53.5¢
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Sports
No$255 @ 51.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
No$177 @ 35.4¢
GTA 6 launch postponed again?Tech
Yes$111 @ 37.0¢
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?Politics
No$27 @ 87.9¢
MLB: Aaron Judge or Juan Soto to draw more walks?Sports
Judge$23 @ 15.0¢
Will the Chicago Bears leave Illinois by Dec. 31?Sports
No$16 @ 58.6¢
X banned in any European country by December 31?Politics
Yes$7 @ 18.0¢
Will Umar Nurmagomedov be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Sports
No$3 @ 75.0¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
No$1 @ 90.1¢