0x2d61…1fa7

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x2d613c30614b68eada0a37d65bddf3778d981fa7
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-4.3pp

ROI

+7%

Win rate

44% @ 47.8¢

Brier

0.184

Resolved

3297

Avg size

$134

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (226/456)	-1%	456
Politics	54% (58/108)	+5%	108
Geopolitics	58% (15/26)	-2%	26
Sports	44% (7/16)	-7%	16
Tech	67% (4/6)	+0%	6
Culture	100% (2/2)	+27%	2
Crypto	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Other456 bets
Hit rate
50% (226/456)
ROI
-1%
Politics108 bets
Hit rate
54% (58/108)
ROI
+5%
Geopolitics26 bets
Hit rate
58% (15/26)
ROI
-2%
Sports16 bets
Hit rate
44% (7/16)
ROI
-7%
Tech6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
+0%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+27%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

51% hit · 312/616

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
O/U 2.5 Rounds	Under	$80	40.0¢	Won
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	$16	70.0¢	Won
Fight to Go the Distance?	No	$210	70.0¢	Lost
Will Manon Fiorot win by KO or TKO?	Yes	$5	12.0¢	Lost
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	Yes	$131	50.0¢	Lost
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?	Yes	$250	25.0¢	Lost
Will Waldo Cortes Acosta win by KO or TKO?	Yes	$76	36.0¢	Lost
UFC 330: Eric McConico vs. Donte Johnson (Middleweight, Early Prelims)	Eric McConico	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?	No	$316	79.0¢	Lost
Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5	Over	$1.1k	6.7¢	Lost
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?	No	$35	88.0¢	Lost
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?	No	$752	96.3¢	Won
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	No	$156	78.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?	Yes	$363	66.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30?	No	$24	97.4¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by June 8?	Yes	$42	39.0¢	Lost
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5?	Yes	$786	48.6¢	Won
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Prelims)	Matt Schnell	$42	21.0¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims)	Farés Ziam	$25	5.0¢	Lost
Will England win?	Yes	$1.2k	78.0¢	Won
O/U 2.5 Rounds	Under	$104	52.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	$140	14.0¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Main Card)	Edmen Shahbazyan	$143	35.8¢	Lost
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	No	$3	36.0¢	Lost
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 16?	Down	$134	67.0¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Bryce Mitchell	$8.4k	97.8¢	Won
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)	Chelsea Chandler	$150	75.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	$96	40.1¢	Lost
O/U 2.5 Rounds	Over	$26	17.0¢	Lost
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	Yes	$2.1k	74.3¢	Lost
Will United Kingdom come in last place at Eurovision 2026?	No	$328	65.6¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	$435	29.0¢	Lost
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	No	$214	61.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	Yes	$90	18.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	$141	47.0¢	Won
Will OPEC crude oil production be above 21 million barrels per day in May?	Yes	$38	4.6¢	Lost
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?	No	$340	68.0¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	$75	5.0¢	Lost
Will OPEC crude oil production be above 20 million barrels per day in May?	Yes	$81	9.5¢	Lost
Will OPEC crude oil production be above 19 million barrels per day in May?	Yes	$171	26.9¢	Lost
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	$1.8k	90.4¢	Won
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	No	$3.2k	94.3¢	Won
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	No	$486	50.5¢	Lost
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	$111	34.2¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	No	$222	74.0¢	Lost
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 13?	Down	$67	65.9¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	Yes	$72	36.0¢	Lost
French forces seize another oil tanker by Feb 28?	No	$1.7k	99.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation?	Yes	$273	91.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	$40	40.3¢	Lost

O/U 2.5 RoundsWon
Under$80 @ 40.0¢
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Won
No$16 @ 70.0¢
Fight to Go the Distance?Lost
No$210 @ 70.0¢
Will Manon Fiorot win by KO or TKO?Lost
Yes$5 @ 12.0¢
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Lost
Yes$131 @ 50.0¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?Lost
Yes$250 @ 25.0¢
Will Waldo Cortes Acosta win by KO or TKO?Lost
Yes$76 @ 36.0¢
UFC 330: Eric McConico vs. Donte Johnson (Middleweight, Early Prelims)Lost
Eric McConico$1 @ 1.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?Lost
No$316 @ 79.0¢
Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5Lost
Over$1.1k @ 6.7¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?Lost
No$35 @ 88.0¢
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?Won
No$752 @ 96.3¢
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?Lost
No$156 @ 78.0¢
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?Won
Yes$363 @ 66.0¢
Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30?Won
No$24 @ 97.4¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 8?Lost
Yes$42 @ 39.0¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5?Won
Yes$786 @ 48.6¢
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Prelims)Lost
Matt Schnell$42 @ 21.0¢
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims)Lost
Farés Ziam$25 @ 5.0¢
Will England win?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 78.0¢
O/U 2.5 RoundsLost
Under$104 @ 52.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$140 @ 14.0¢
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Main Card)Lost
Edmen Shahbazyan$143 @ 35.8¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 36.0¢
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 16?Lost
Down$134 @ 67.0¢
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Card)Won
Bryce Mitchell$8.4k @ 97.8¢
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)Won
Chelsea Chandler$150 @ 75.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?Lost
Yes$96 @ 40.1¢
O/U 2.5 RoundsLost
Over$26 @ 17.0¢
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?Lost
Yes$2.1k @ 74.3¢
Will United Kingdom come in last place at Eurovision 2026?Lost
No$328 @ 65.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?Lost
No$435 @ 29.0¢
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?Lost
No$214 @ 61.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$90 @ 18.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?Won
No$141 @ 47.0¢
Will OPEC crude oil production be above 21 million barrels per day in May?Lost
Yes$38 @ 4.6¢
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$340 @ 68.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?Lost
Yes$75 @ 5.0¢
Will OPEC crude oil production be above 20 million barrels per day in May?Lost
Yes$81 @ 9.5¢
Will OPEC crude oil production be above 19 million barrels per day in May?Lost
Yes$171 @ 26.9¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1.8k @ 90.4¢
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?Won
No$3.2k @ 94.3¢
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?Lost
No$486 @ 50.5¢
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?Lost
Yes$111 @ 34.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?Lost
No$222 @ 74.0¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 13?Lost
Down$67 @ 65.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?Lost
Yes$72 @ 36.0¢
French forces seize another oil tanker by Feb 28?Lost
No$1.7k @ 99.0¢
Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation?Lost
Yes$273 @ 91.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ETLost
Up$40 @ 40.3¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will no one dissent the September Fed decision?	—	No	$3.4k	91.8¢
Will "Agatha Christie's Seven Dials" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 20, 2026)	—	Yes	$3.4k	39.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$2.4k	73.9¢
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	—	Yes	$2.1k	74.3¢
French forces seize another oil tanker by Feb 28?	—	No	$1.7k	99.0¢
Will "End of Beginning - Djo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?	—	No	$1.5k	74.8¢
Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5	—	Over	$1.1k	6.7¢
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Sports	No	$766	76.6¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$745	37.2¢
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?	—	Yes	$710	71.0¢
Will Drake be the top artist for 2026?	Culture	No	$700	82.9¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$574	55.5¢
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	Politics	No	$526	65.0¢
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?	—	Yes	$525	36.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$517	37.9¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	—	No	$487	24.0¢
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	—	No	$486	50.5¢
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Politics	No	$474	61.5¢
Will Iran strike Oman again in March?	—	Yes	$439	68.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	Other	No	$435	29.0¢
Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by April 30?	—	No	$399	29.0¢
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026?	—	No	$390	13.0¢
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 58% and 59%?	—	Yes	$378	94.5¢
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Politics	No	$363	60.0¢
Will Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	—	No	$361	35.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Politics	No	$360	24.0¢
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$340	68.0¢
Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?	Sports	Yes	$335	67.0¢
5kt meteor strike in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$334	55.5¢
Will "His & Hers" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)	—	Yes	$330	33.0¢

Will no one dissent the September Fed decision?—
No$3.4k @ 91.8¢
Will "Agatha Christie's Seven Dials" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 20, 2026)—
Yes$3.4k @ 39.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Politics
No$2.4k @ 73.9¢
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?—
Yes$2.1k @ 74.3¢
French forces seize another oil tanker by Feb 28?—
No$1.7k @ 99.0¢
Will "End of Beginning - Djo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?—
No$1.5k @ 74.8¢
Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5—
Over$1.1k @ 6.7¢
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Sports
No$766 @ 76.6¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Politics
No$745 @ 37.2¢
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?—
Yes$710 @ 71.0¢
Will Drake be the top artist for 2026?Culture
No$700 @ 82.9¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Politics
No$574 @ 55.5¢
US strike on Colombia by December 31?Politics
No$526 @ 65.0¢
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?—
Yes$525 @ 36.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Politics
Yes$517 @ 37.9¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?—
No$487 @ 24.0¢
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?—
No$486 @ 50.5¢
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?Politics
No$474 @ 61.5¢
Will Iran strike Oman again in March?—
Yes$439 @ 68.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?Other
No$435 @ 29.0¢
Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by April 30?—
No$399 @ 29.0¢
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026?—
No$390 @ 13.0¢
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 58% and 59%?—
Yes$378 @ 94.5¢
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?Politics
No$363 @ 60.0¢
Will Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?—
No$361 @ 35.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Politics
No$360 @ 24.0¢
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?Politics
No$340 @ 68.0¢
Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?Sports
Yes$335 @ 67.0¢
5kt meteor strike in 2026?Tech
Yes$334 @ 55.5¢
Will "His & Hers" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)—
Yes$330 @ 33.0¢