0x2d1b…5adb

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x2d1b709a49bd907577f1319df1a79d6a0c9d5adb
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+16.1pp

ROI

+26%

Win rate

57% @ 40.4¢

Brier

0.231

Resolved

506

Avg size

$89

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	53% (94/177)	+22%	177
Sports	39% (12/31)	+25%	31
Politics	47% (7/15)	+52%	15
Tech	100% (2/2)	+44%	2
Geopolitics	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Crypto	50% (1/2)	+91%	2

Other177 bets
Hit rate
53% (94/177)
ROI
+22%
Sports31 bets
Hit rate
39% (12/31)
ROI
+25%
Politics15 bets
Hit rate
47% (7/15)
ROI
+52%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+44%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+91%

Track record

51% hit · 116/229

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	$31	0.6¢	Lost
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-01-19?	Yes	$102	68.0¢	Won
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-22?	Yes	$114	57.0¢	Won
Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-16?	Yes	$100	36.0¢	Lost
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$499	32.0¢	Won
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ (BO5)	MOUZ	$136	34.0¢	Won
Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-04?	Yes	$67	67.0¢	Won
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	Yes	$50	46.0¢	Won
Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-18?	Yes	$222	64.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$1.0k	82.7¢	Won
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw?	Yes	$90	30.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $94,000 November 10-16?	Yes	$159	79.5¢	Won
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs. HEROIC	HEROIC	$50	25.0¢	Lost
Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-04?	No	$32	46.0¢	Lost
Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-19?	Yes	$27	18.0¢	Won
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01?	Yes	$140	46.0¢	Lost
Will Sweden win on 2025-10-10?	Yes	$120	43.0¢	Lost
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23?	Yes	$140	70.0¢	Won
Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-07?	No	$41	41.0¢	Won
Will Galatasaray reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?	Yes	$162	31.0¢	Lost
Dota 2: OG vs Virtus.pro (BO3)	OG	$132	66.0¢	Won
Will Everton win on 2025-02-26?	Yes	$100	27.0¢	Lost
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$204	37.0¢	Lost
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-08-31?	Yes	$100	24.0¢	Won
Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-31?	Yes	$132	53.0¢	Lost
S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week?	Yes	$128	38.0¢	Won
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21?	Yes	$90	45.0¢	Won
Chargers vs. Falcons	Falcons	$10	62.0¢	Lost
Will Brentford win on 2025-08-17?	Yes	$108	27.0¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$174	30.3¢	Lost
Will West Ham win on 2025-10-24?	Yes	$54	27.0¢	Lost
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	$428	46.8¢	Won
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$599	41.4¢	Lost
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	$169	10.6¢	Lost
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs. Team Liquid	Nigma Galaxy	$178	63.6¢	Lost
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04?	Yes	$120	59.0¢	Won
Will Colombia be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup?	Yes	$212	26.4¢	Lost
Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-18?	Yes	$66	66.0¢	Won
Miami Open: Iva Jovic vs Talia Gibson	Talia Gibson	$270	89.9¢	Won
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs. Nigma Galaxy	Nigma Galaxy	$132	33.0¢	Won
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner	Team Nemesis	$49	20.0¢	Won
Will Fulham win on 2025-02-25?	Yes	$100	36.0¢	Won
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-08?	Yes	$180	62.0¢	Lost
Arsenal wins the Premier League?	Yes	$50	20.9¢	Lost
Will Everton win on 2025-12-06?	Yes	$90	45.0¢	Won
Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-14?	No	$54	27.0¢	Lost
Will Liverpool vs. Manchester United end in a draw?	Yes	$33	22.0¢	Lost
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-08-17?	Yes	$50	18.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$48	25.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$253	22.3¢	Won

Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Lost
No$31 @ 0.6¢
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-01-19?Won
Yes$102 @ 68.0¢
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-22?Won
Yes$114 @ 57.0¢
Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-16?Lost
Yes$100 @ 36.0¢
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$499 @ 32.0¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ (BO5)Won
MOUZ$136 @ 34.0¢
Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-04?Won
Yes$67 @ 67.0¢
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?Won
Yes$50 @ 46.0¢
Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-18?Won
Yes$222 @ 64.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$1.0k @ 82.7¢
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw?Lost
Yes$90 @ 30.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $94,000 November 10-16?Won
Yes$159 @ 79.5¢
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs. HEROICLost
HEROIC$50 @ 25.0¢
Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-04?Lost
No$32 @ 46.0¢
Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-19?Won
Yes$27 @ 18.0¢
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01?Lost
Yes$140 @ 46.0¢
Will Sweden win on 2025-10-10?Lost
Yes$120 @ 43.0¢
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23?Won
Yes$140 @ 70.0¢
Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-07?Won
No$41 @ 41.0¢
Will Galatasaray reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Lost
Yes$162 @ 31.0¢
Dota 2: OG vs Virtus.pro (BO3)Won
OG$132 @ 66.0¢
Will Everton win on 2025-02-26?Lost
Yes$100 @ 27.0¢
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$204 @ 37.0¢
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-08-31?Won
Yes$100 @ 24.0¢
Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-31?Lost
Yes$132 @ 53.0¢
S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week?Won
Yes$128 @ 38.0¢
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21?Won
Yes$90 @ 45.0¢
Chargers vs. FalconsLost
Falcons$10 @ 62.0¢
Will Brentford win on 2025-08-17?Lost
Yes$108 @ 27.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
No$174 @ 30.3¢
Will West Ham win on 2025-10-24?Lost
Yes$54 @ 27.0¢
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?Won
Yes$428 @ 46.8¢
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$599 @ 41.4¢
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Lost
Yes$169 @ 10.6¢
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs. Team LiquidLost
Nigma Galaxy$178 @ 63.6¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04?Won
Yes$120 @ 59.0¢
Will Colombia be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup?Lost
Yes$212 @ 26.4¢
Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-18?Won
Yes$66 @ 66.0¢
Miami Open: Iva Jovic vs Talia GibsonWon
Talia Gibson$270 @ 89.9¢
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs. Nigma GalaxyWon
Nigma Galaxy$132 @ 33.0¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 WinnerWon
Team Nemesis$49 @ 20.0¢
Will Fulham win on 2025-02-25?Won
Yes$100 @ 36.0¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-08?Lost
Yes$180 @ 62.0¢
Arsenal wins the Premier League?Lost
Yes$50 @ 20.9¢
Will Everton win on 2025-12-06?Won
Yes$90 @ 45.0¢
Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-14?Lost
No$54 @ 27.0¢
Will Liverpool vs. Manchester United end in a draw?Lost
Yes$33 @ 22.0¢
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-08-17?Lost
Yes$50 @ 18.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$48 @ 25.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$253 @ 22.3¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$4.1k	99.2¢
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Sports	Yes	$4.0k	57.4¢
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$2.4k	32.0¢
Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$1.0k	40.0¢
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$504	70.0¢
Will Bayern Munich win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Sports	Yes	$413	14.0¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$400	80.0¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$390	78.0¢
No one announced as next James Bond?	Culture	No	$389	77.7¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$313	31.3¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$280	14.3¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$261	72.0¢
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$240	8.0¢
Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$203	6.4¢
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$200	40.0¢
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs OG (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group C	Sports	OG	$130	26.0¢
Will Declan Rice finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$130	5.8¢
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?	Crypto	Yes	$124	65.2¢
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$110	0.2¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$105	7.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$102	17.0¢
Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$100	1.7¢
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$99	0.9¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$98	72.5¢
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Tech	No	$82	87.6¢
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$82	19.0¢
Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by February 28, 2027?	Sports	Yes	$75	51.9¢
Will Declan Rice finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$48	6.1¢
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by December 31?	Crypto	Yes	$46	52.3¢
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $13B by September 30?	Other	Yes	$45	12.2¢

Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$4.1k @ 99.2¢
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Sports
Yes$4.0k @ 57.4¢
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$2.4k @ 32.0¢
Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$1.0k @ 40.0¢
Anthropic IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$504 @ 70.0¢
Will Bayern Munich win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Sports
Yes$413 @ 14.0¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$400 @ 80.0¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$390 @ 78.0¢
No one announced as next James Bond?Culture
No$389 @ 77.7¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$313 @ 31.3¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$280 @ 14.3¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$261 @ 72.0¢
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?Politics
Yes$240 @ 8.0¢
Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$203 @ 6.4¢
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$200 @ 40.0¢
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs OG (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group CSports
OG$130 @ 26.0¢
Will Declan Rice finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$130 @ 5.8¢
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?Crypto
Yes$124 @ 65.2¢
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$110 @ 0.2¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$105 @ 7.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$102 @ 17.0¢
Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$100 @ 1.7¢
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$99 @ 0.9¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$98 @ 72.5¢
GTA 6 launch postponed again?Tech
No$82 @ 87.6¢
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Politics
No$82 @ 19.0¢
Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by February 28, 2027?Sports
Yes$75 @ 51.9¢
Will Declan Rice finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$48 @ 6.1¢
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by December 31?Crypto
Yes$46 @ 52.3¢
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $13B by September 30?Other
Yes$45 @ 12.2¢