← Smart money
0x2c6f…deee
SharpEdge
+8.4pp
ROI
+12%
Win rate
52% @ 43.9¢
Brier
0.188
Resolved
1577
Avg size
$77
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 48% (76/158) | +9% | 158 |
| Politics | 50% (18/36) | +3% | 36 |
| Sports | 30% (3/10) | -80% | 10 |
| Geopolitics | 50% (2/4) | +39% | 4 |
- Other158 bets
- Hit rate
- 48% (76/158)
- ROI
- +9%
- Politics36 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (18/36)
- ROI
- +3%
- Sports10 bets
- Hit rate
- 30% (3/10)
- ROI
- -80%
- Geopolitics4 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (2/4)
- ROI
- +39%
Track record
48% hit · 99/208- No$2.8k @ 90.7¢
- Yes$1 @ 73.4¢
- Yes$816 @ 45.9¢
- No$339 @ 59.0¢
- Yes$251 @ 28.1¢
- Yes$0 @ 37.6¢
- Yes$40 @ 24.6¢
- Yes$26 @ 92.5¢
- No$91 @ 61.1¢
- Yes$39 @ 57.4¢
- Stars$26 @ 56.0¢
- Wild vs. StarsLostWild$70 @ 46.2¢
- No$3 @ 56.0¢
- Hornets$98 @ 87.0¢
- Knicks$39 @ 29.6¢
- Yes$18 @ 40.0¢
- Knicks$58 @ 51.1¢
- Rockets$20 @ 46.8¢
- Yes$2 @ 1.4¢
- No$218 @ 28.0¢
- Yes$630 @ 81.1¢
- No$4 @ 69.8¢
- Yes$0 @ 3.0¢
- Yes$10 @ 12.1¢
- Mavericks$144 @ 18.0¢
- Kennesaw State Owls$2 @ 5.0¢
- Yes$797 @ 44.9¢
- No$147 @ 73.6¢
- Yes$50 @ 25.0¢
- No$61 @ 16.4¢
- Yes$272 @ 73.1¢
- Timberwolves$254 @ 31.0¢
- No$214 @ 45.1¢
- Yes$251 @ 53.0¢
- No$7 @ 31.0¢
- Yes$17 @ 76.0¢
- Clippers$5 @ 67.0¢
- No$696 @ 87.0¢
- Yes$100 @ 12.5¢
- No$12.9k @ 64.7¢
- Yes$2.0k @ 14.2¢
- Nets$475 @ 59.4¢
- No$44 @ 40.9¢
- Yes$83 @ 77.0¢
- No$143 @ 25.4¢
- Yes$416 @ 74.0¢
- No$23 @ 50.0¢
- Yes$22 @ 48.9¢
- Hawks vs. HeatLostHawks$876 @ 67.0¢
- Heat$288 @ 72.0¢
Recent trades
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Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Politics | No | $3.3k | 40.6¢ |
| Will the Democratic Party win the AK-AL House seat? | Politics | No | $490 | 84.8¢ |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Politics | Yes | $169 | 68.9¢ |
| Anthropic IPO before 2027? | Business | No | $100 | 24.7¢ |
| Discord IPO before 2027? | Business | Yes | $71 | 14.5¢ |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Politics | Yes | $69 | 20.1¢ |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Politics | No | $46 | 16.7¢ |
| Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? | Tech | No | $9 | 83.0¢ |
| Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? | Politics | Yes | $8 | 18.0¢ |
| Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? | Tech | Yes | $1 | 39.7¢ |
| Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? | Tech | Yes | $1 | 18.0¢ |
- No$3.3k @ 40.6¢
- No$490 @ 84.8¢
- Yes$169 @ 68.9¢
- Anthropic IPO before 2027?BusinessNo$100 @ 24.7¢
- Discord IPO before 2027?BusinessYes$71 @ 14.5¢
- Yes$69 @ 20.1¢
- No$46 @ 16.7¢
- No$9 @ 83.0¢
- Yes$8 @ 18.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 39.7¢
- Yes$1 @ 18.0¢