0x2c41…133e

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.2pp

ROI

+9%

Win rate

38% @ 34.6¢

Brier

0.166

Resolved

5174

Avg size

$81

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	40% (278/701)	+1%	701
Politics	59% (48/82)	+19%	82
Geopolitics	63% (5/8)	+74%	8
Sports	67% (4/6)	+60%	6
Tech	50% (2/4)	-20%	4
Culture	33% (1/3)	+50%	3
Crypto	50% (1/2)	+43%	2

Other701 bets
Hit rate
40% (278/701)
ROI
+1%
Politics82 bets
Hit rate
59% (48/82)
ROI
+19%
Geopolitics8 bets
Hit rate
63% (5/8)
ROI
+74%
Sports6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
+60%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
-20%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+50%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+43%

Track record

42% hit · 339/806

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump and Elon say "Paper Straw" during their Feb 18 interview?	Yes	$91	22.7¢	Lost
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?	No	$863	51.3¢	Lost
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?	Yes	$1.4k	46.3¢	Won
Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 50?	Yes	$17	11.9¢	Lost
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship?	Yes	$7	26.0¢	Lost
Will Justin McNeal be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Dakota?	No	$128	89.7¢	Won
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in September?	Yes	$27	27.0¢	Lost
Will US add less than 100k jobs in December 2024?	Yes	$194	8.5¢	Lost
Will Charlie Davis be voted off Survivor Season 50 this week?	Yes	$72	87.8¢	Lost
Tulsi Gabbard out by March 31?	Yes	$24	20.1¢	Lost
Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be between 80,000 and 90,000 voters?	No	$64	71.0¢	Won
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% or less in December?	No	$510	51.0¢	Won
Will Mage Arena win Most Innovative Gameplay in the 2025 Steam Awards?	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Lost
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?	Yes	$49	48.6¢	Won
Will Brendan Gill be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special election?	Yes	$53	34.3¢	Lost
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$12	12.0¢	Lost
Will Tiffany Little Canfield & Bernard Telsey (Wicked: For Good) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$31	72.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say 'Panama' during the 2025 State of the Union?	No	$141	48.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say 'Panama' during the 2025 State of the Union?	Yes	$763	54.0¢	Won
Will Trump say 'Elon' or 'Musk' during the 2025 State of the Union?	Yes	$6.3k	51.5¢	Won
Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration?	No	$374	55.7¢	Lost
Will Biden pardon Adam Schiff?	Yes	$60	13.0¢	Won
Will EJ Antoni be confirmed as BLS Commissioner in 2025?	No	$57	40.0¢	Won
Will CJ McCollum be traded this season?	No	$206	66.9¢	Lost
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	$789	67.9¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Zohran Mamdani in November?	No	$992	43.8¢	Lost
Will Russia recognize Syrian government by March 31?	No	$303	26.6¢	Lost
Will Bernie Sanders say "Alexandria" during his West Virginia speech on August 8?	No	$410	82.0¢	Won
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in December?	No	$25	68.0¢	Lost
Will Jon Hansen win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?	No	$55	74.1¢	Won
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the New York Knicks?	No	$551	78.3¢	Won
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the New York Knicks?	Yes	$15	9.3¢	Lost
DoorDash total orders above 900M in Q1?	Yes	$9	82.2¢	Won
Will the US add more than 200k jobs in August?	Yes	$3	4.0¢	Lost
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March?	Yes	$30	9.8¢	Lost
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 million?	No	$2	8.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump Jr. be a member of the Trump administration?	Yes	$325	21.1¢	Lost
Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?	Yes	$359	17.7¢	Won
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$6	7.0¢	Lost
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?	Yes	$27	8.9¢	Lost
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	Yes	$48	46.0¢	Won
GOP wins popular vote by 2-3%?	Yes	$327	20.6¢	Lost
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?	No	$230	74.5¢	Won
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?	Yes	$79	10.0¢	Lost
CA-45 election: Tran (D) vs. Steel (R)	Steel	$272	7.0¢	Lost
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in November?	Yes	$1.1k	14.4¢	Lost
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	$555	61.6¢	Lost
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by at least 15%?	No	$8	16.0¢	Lost
Trump x Xi Jinping talk before August?	Yes	$19	6.0¢	Lost
Will Biden issue more pardons than Trump?	Yes	$3.8k	73.3¢	Lost

Will Trump and Elon say "Paper Straw" during their Feb 18 interview?Lost
Yes$91 @ 22.7¢
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?Lost
No$863 @ 51.3¢
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 46.3¢
Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 50?Lost
Yes$17 @ 11.9¢
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship?Lost
Yes$7 @ 26.0¢
Will Justin McNeal be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Dakota?Won
No$128 @ 89.7¢
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in September?Lost
Yes$27 @ 27.0¢
Will US add less than 100k jobs in December 2024?Lost
Yes$194 @ 8.5¢
Will Charlie Davis be voted off Survivor Season 50 this week?Lost
Yes$72 @ 87.8¢
Tulsi Gabbard out by March 31?Lost
Yes$24 @ 20.1¢
Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be between 80,000 and 90,000 voters?Won
No$64 @ 71.0¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% or less in December?Won
No$510 @ 51.0¢
Will Mage Arena win Most Innovative Gameplay in the 2025 Steam Awards?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?Won
Yes$49 @ 48.6¢
Will Brendan Gill be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special election?Lost
Yes$53 @ 34.3¢
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$12 @ 12.0¢
Will Tiffany Little Canfield & Bernard Telsey (Wicked: For Good) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$31 @ 72.0¢
Will Trump say 'Panama' during the 2025 State of the Union?Lost
No$141 @ 48.0¢
Will Trump say 'Panama' during the 2025 State of the Union?Won
Yes$763 @ 54.0¢
Will Trump say 'Elon' or 'Musk' during the 2025 State of the Union?Won
Yes$6.3k @ 51.5¢
Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration? Lost
No$374 @ 55.7¢
Will Biden pardon Adam Schiff?Won
Yes$60 @ 13.0¢
Will EJ Antoni be confirmed as BLS Commissioner in 2025?Won
No$57 @ 40.0¢
Will CJ McCollum be traded this season?Lost
No$206 @ 66.9¢
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
No$789 @ 67.9¢
Will Trump talk to Zohran Mamdani in November?Lost
No$992 @ 43.8¢
Will Russia recognize Syrian government by March 31?Lost
No$303 @ 26.6¢
Will Bernie Sanders say "Alexandria" during his West Virginia speech on August 8?Won
No$410 @ 82.0¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in December?Lost
No$25 @ 68.0¢
Will Jon Hansen win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?Won
No$55 @ 74.1¢
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the New York Knicks?Won
No$551 @ 78.3¢
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the New York Knicks?Lost
Yes$15 @ 9.3¢
DoorDash total orders above 900M in Q1?Won
Yes$9 @ 82.2¢
Will the US add more than 200k jobs in August?Lost
Yes$3 @ 4.0¢
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March?Lost
Yes$30 @ 9.8¢
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 million?Lost
No$2 @ 8.0¢
Will Donald Trump Jr. be a member of the Trump administration? Lost
Yes$325 @ 21.1¢
Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?Won
Yes$359 @ 17.7¢
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 7.0¢
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?Lost
Yes$27 @ 8.9¢
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Won
Yes$48 @ 46.0¢
GOP wins popular vote by 2-3%?Lost
Yes$327 @ 20.6¢
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?Won
No$230 @ 74.5¢
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?Lost
Yes$79 @ 10.0¢
CA-45 election: Tran (D) vs. Steel (R)Lost
Steel$272 @ 7.0¢
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in November?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 14.4¢
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Lost
Yes$555 @ 61.6¢
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by at least 15%?Lost
No$8 @ 16.0¢
Trump x Xi Jinping talk before August?Lost
Yes$19 @ 6.0¢
Will Biden issue more pardons than Trump?Lost
Yes$3.8k @ 73.3¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$10.2k	50.5¢
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?	Politics	No	$794	50.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Politics	No	$790	76.0¢
Will Nevada have the closest Governor's race in 2026?	Politics	No	$664	83.9¢
Will the Republican Party win the TX-21 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$646	84.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	Business	No	$604	23.9¢
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$532	61.5¢
Will the Democratic Party win the IN-01 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$479	83.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the NE-01 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$473	82.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the MN-06 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$462	80.1¢
Will the Republican Party win the NY-02 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$462	80.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the WI-08 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$457	79.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the MN-08 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$444	77.0¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$440	28.0¢
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$434	72.6¢
Will Frank Chikane be the next mayor of Johannesburg?	Politics	No	$399	60.4¢
Will the Republican Party win the KY-06 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$398	69.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the NY-01 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$366	63.5¢
Will the Republican Party win the TX-17 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$357	93.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OR-04 House election by 35% or more?	Politics	No	$356	80.8¢
Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	Politics	Yes	$342	45.6¢
Will the Republican Party win the NY-24 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$323	84.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the MI-07 House seat?	Politics	No	$304	68.0¢
Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	No	$270	36.0¢
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$263	37.3¢
Weed rescheduled by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$257	17.4¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$257	14.6¢
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$239	28.0¢
Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$239	50.0¢
Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$220	57.2¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$10.2k @ 50.5¢
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?Politics
No$794 @ 50.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
No$790 @ 76.0¢
Will Nevada have the closest Governor's race in 2026?Politics
No$664 @ 83.9¢
Will the Republican Party win the TX-21 House seat?Politics
Yes$646 @ 84.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?Business
No$604 @ 23.9¢
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$532 @ 61.5¢
Will the Democratic Party win the IN-01 House seat?Politics
Yes$479 @ 83.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the NE-01 House seat?Politics
Yes$473 @ 82.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the MN-06 House seat?Politics
Yes$462 @ 80.1¢
Will the Republican Party win the NY-02 House seat?Politics
Yes$462 @ 80.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the WI-08 House seat?Politics
Yes$457 @ 79.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the MN-08 House seat?Politics
Yes$444 @ 77.0¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$440 @ 28.0¢
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Politics
Yes$434 @ 72.6¢
Will Frank Chikane be the next mayor of Johannesburg?Politics
No$399 @ 60.4¢
Will the Republican Party win the KY-06 House seat?Politics
Yes$398 @ 69.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the NY-01 House seat?Politics
Yes$366 @ 63.5¢
Will the Republican Party win the TX-17 House seat?Politics
Yes$357 @ 93.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OR-04 House election by 35% or more?Politics
No$356 @ 80.8¢
Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?Politics
Yes$342 @ 45.6¢
Will the Republican Party win the NY-24 House seat?Politics
Yes$323 @ 84.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the MI-07 House seat?Politics
No$304 @ 68.0¢
Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
No$270 @ 36.0¢
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$263 @ 37.3¢
Weed rescheduled by December 31?Politics
Yes$257 @ 17.4¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$257 @ 14.6¢
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$239 @ 28.0¢
Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$239 @ 50.0¢
Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$220 @ 57.2¢