← Smart money
0x2c3e…7f57
ProfitableEdge
+62.8pp
ROI
+395%
Win rate
73% @ 10.2¢
Brier
0.626
Resolved
192
Avg size
$64
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 38% (3/8) | +1442% | 8 |
| Politics | 60% (3/5) | +91% | 5 |
| Geopolitics | 0% (0/2) | -100% | 2 |
| Crypto | 100% (1/1) | +61% | 1 |
- Other8 bets
- Hit rate
- 38% (3/8)
- ROI
- +1442%
- Politics5 bets
- Hit rate
- 60% (3/5)
- ROI
- +91%
- Geopolitics2 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/2)
- ROI
- -100%
- Crypto1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +61%
Track record
44% hit · 7/16| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by July 24? | Yes | $87 | 3.2¢ | Lost |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026? | No | $9 | 0.5¢ | Lost |
| Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? | No | $771 | 74.9¢ | Won |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | $888 | 2.2¢ | Won |
| US strike on Mexico by March 31? | Yes | $56 | 7.0¢ | Lost |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | No | $187 | 16.9¢ | Lost |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | No | $7.8k | 49.9¢ | Won |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | $293 | 13.7¢ | Lost |
| Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? | No | $442 | 62.0¢ | Won |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | $4 | 82.8¢ | Won |
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? | Yes | $167 | 18.8¢ | Lost |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | No | $6 | 19.0¢ | Won |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | Yes | $1 | 0.4¢ | Lost |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | Yes | $940 | 27.2¢ | Won |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24? | No | $279 | 2.3¢ | Lost |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | $325 | 20.7¢ | Lost |
- Yes$87 @ 3.2¢
- No$9 @ 0.5¢
- No$771 @ 74.9¢
- Yes$888 @ 2.2¢
- Yes$56 @ 7.0¢
- No$187 @ 16.9¢
- No$7.8k @ 49.9¢
- No$293 @ 13.7¢
- No$442 @ 62.0¢
- No$4 @ 82.8¢
- Yes$167 @ 18.8¢
- No$6 @ 19.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
- Yes$940 @ 27.2¢
- No$279 @ 2.3¢
- Yes$325 @ 20.7¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will STRC hit $100 by October 31? | Crypto | No | $387 | 29.4¢ |
| Will STRC hit $100 by November 30? | Crypto | No | $24 | 9.3¢ |
- No$387 @ 29.4¢
- No$24 @ 9.3¢