← Smart money
0x2be6…8ae5
SharpEdge
+19.5pp
ROI
+29%
Win rate
57% @ 37.1¢
Brier
0.120
Resolved
46
Avg size
$101
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 33% (1/3) | +24% | 3 |
| Tech | 100% (1/1) | +38% | 1 |
- Politics3 bets
- Hit rate
- 33% (1/3)
- ROI
- +24%
- Tech1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +38%
Track record
50% hit · 2/4| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? | Yes | $750 | 7.9¢ | Lost |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | $1.6k | 43.9¢ | Won |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? | No | $1.7k | 72.2¢ | Won |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $577 | 54.0¢ | Lost |
- Yes$750 @ 7.9¢
- No$1.6k @ 43.9¢
- No$1.7k @ 72.2¢
- Yes$577 @ 54.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | Geopolitics | No | $9.8k | 90.7¢ |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027? | Tech | No | $5.7k | 43.0¢ |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Geopolitics | No | $3.5k | 88.0¢ |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | Politics | No | $3.4k | 91.2¢ |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Politics | No | $2.9k | 93.3¢ |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | Politics | No | $2.9k | 88.0¢ |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | Politics | No | $2.2k | 89.7¢ |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Politics | No | $1.7k | 76.4¢ |
| Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? | Politics | Yes | $1.2k | 26.5¢ |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Politics | No | $1.0k | 94.2¢ |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027? | Tech | No | $948 | 33.1¢ |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | Tech | No | $705 | 65.4¢ |
| US x China Military clash before 2027? | Politics | No | $474 | 95.0¢ |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | Politics | No | $259 | 24.6¢ |
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?GeopoliticsNo$9.8k @ 90.7¢
- No$5.7k @ 43.0¢
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?GeopoliticsNo$3.5k @ 88.0¢
- No$3.4k @ 91.2¢
- No$2.9k @ 93.3¢
- No$2.9k @ 88.0¢
- No$2.2k @ 89.7¢
- No$1.7k @ 76.4¢
- Yes$1.2k @ 26.5¢
- No$1.0k @ 94.2¢
- No$948 @ 33.1¢
- No$705 @ 65.4¢
- No$474 @ 95.0¢
- No$259 @ 24.6¢